February 2017- Spring Like Weather Returns

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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unome wrote:that probability map is based on climo, not current weather - from the site:


*These probability values were estimated from a 30-year period of severe weather reports from 1982-2011. The procedure to create the maps is as follows:

1. Reports for each day are put onto a grid 80 km x 80 km.
2. If one or more reports occur in a grid box, that box is assigned the value "1" for the day. If no reports occur, it's a zero.
3. The raw frequency for each day at each grid location is found for the period (number of "1" values divided by number of years) to get a raw annual cycle.
4. The raw annual cycle at each point is smoothed in time, using a Gaussian filter with a standard deviation of 15 days.
5. The smoothed time series are then smoothed in space with a 2-D Gaussian filter (SD = 120 km in each direction).

DoctorMu wrote:Possible continuing event into the SE. Could be a long 24 hours ahead. MS in the bullseye yet again.


Image
Thanks - my mistake not to notice the historical average over many years.
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DoctorMu
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Incoming.

Image

Holy moly up in Rockdale

NWS Fort Worth ‏@NWSFortWorth 12m12 minutes ago
More
1246 AM: If you are IN Rockdale in Milam Co, you NEED to take Cover Now!! Very strong winds near 90-100 mph psbl heading for the city #ctxwx
1 reply 29 retweets 8 likes
unome
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https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1249 AM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Burleson County in southeastern Texas...
Central Brazos County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 130 AM CST.

* At 1248 AM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Rockdale to Tanglewood to near Fedor, moving
northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Northwestern College Station, Bryan, Caldwell, Kurten, Wixon
Valley, Kyle Field, Deanville and Chriesman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3073 9662 3073 9660 3071 9660 3070 9656
3074 9646 3091 9635 3097 9624 3067 9621
3034 9676 3039 9679 3045 9688 3046 9688
3047 9690 3049 9690 3053 9691 3056 9696
TIME...MOT...LOC 0648Z 231DEG 52KT 3070 9709 3048 9699 3030 9698

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
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DoctorMu
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Woah.

Air tsunami coming this way. Laid all lawn swing, etc. down flat. Moved cars. Lowered b-ball goal, fortunately set in 2000 lbs of concrete as of a year ago.
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DoctorMu
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Bow echo out again - just west of Bryan. batten down the hatches.
unome
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DoctorMu wrote:Bow echo out again - just west of Bryan. batten down the hatches.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
128 AM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Burleson County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Brazos County in southeastern Texas...
Madison County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 230 AM CST.

* At 127 AM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Hearne to near Bryan to near Snook, moving east
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to
mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Madisonville, Snook, Bedias, Kurten, Wixon
Valley, Millican, Anderson, Kyle Field, Iola, North Zulch,
Wellborn, Roans Prairie, Richards and Carlos.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 9568 3091 9572 3086 9583 3086 9586
3053 9582 3037 9654 3069 9652 3071 9653
3074 9646 3092 9634 3109 9598 3109 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 0727Z 253DEG 39KT 3084 9652 3071 9645 3042 9647

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
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DoctorMu
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A "confidence booster" from our local KBTX

Shel Winkley ✔ @KBTXShel
We'll have to see how winds are doing in Brazos County. Chance they may come down below 60mph by the time it gets to Grimes County
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DoctorMu
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Fortunately the ground isn't very soggy. It may save a few trees. Lack of leaves on the trees a benefit, although the elms are sprouting.
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DoctorMu
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WUUS54 KHGX 200728
SVRHGX
TXC041-051-185-313-200830-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0025.170220T0728Z-170220T0830Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
128 AM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Burleson County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Brazos County in southeastern Texas...
Madison County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 230 AM CST.

* At 127 AM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Hearne to near Bryan to near Snook, moving east
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to
mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Madisonville, Snook, Bedias, Kurten, Wixon
Valley, Millican, Anderson, Kyle Field, Iola, North Zulch,
Wellborn, Roans Prairie, Richards and Carlos.
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DoctorMu
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Hook echo on FM-46 SE of Franklin...moving 45-50 mph
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DoctorMu
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Winds blustery - I haven't seen anything approaching 70 mph yet...

Image
Andrew
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Looks like areas from Wharton northeastward into Grimes & Montgomery will see the highest chances for flooding over the next couple of hours as the line has slowed down significantly. Eastward progression should continue later this morning as upper level energy catches up to the main line. We should see general weakening occur too once we hit the 5-6am time period.
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Katdaddy
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC015-089-157-201-473-477-481-201145-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0028.170220T1109Z-170220T1145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
509 AM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Colorado County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Eastern Austin County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Washington County in southeastern Texas...
Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
West central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 545 AM CST.

* At 509 AM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 10 miles east of Columbus to 7 miles east of Eagle
Lake to 6 miles northwest of Wharton, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Sugar Land, Missouri City, Rosenberg, Stafford, Katy, Richmond,
Sealy, Hempstead, Brookshire, Bellville, Eagle Lake, Town West,
Pecan Grove, First Colony, Mission Bend, southwestern Eldridge /
West Oaks, Fresno, Meadows Place, East Bernard and Arcola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
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Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CST MON FEB 20 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Eastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
South central Walker County in southeastern Texas...
Western Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 630 AM CST.

* At 547 AM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Waller to Pecan Grove, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Sugar Land, Conroe, eastern Rosenberg, Stafford, Humble, Katy,
Richmond, Tomball, Jersey Village, Hempstead, Willis, Prairie View,
Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point Village,
Pinehurst, Northside / Northline, Kingwood, Spring Branch North and
The Woodlands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
Cromagnum
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Not much on the south side of town so far. More on the way though so we will see.
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srainhoutx
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Looks like HGX will be cancelling the Flash Flood Watch shortly. So far the storms have remained rather tame and nothing but stratiform rains behind the main line which is breaking up. Along the Coastal Counties, I would not let your guard down just yet. It appears a meso low is drifting to the ENE with some heavier rainfall rates possible.

Image

Edit to Add:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
742 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.UPDATE...
The line of intense convection that moved into SE TX earlier this
morning has broken apart and intense convection has waned
significantly. The highest rainfall values have been out west over
Colorado, Burleson, Washington and Austin counties with about 3 to
4 inches of rain with most of that rain falling last night between
midnight and 2 AM. Flash flooding looks less likely as the
residual rain will be far less intense. Will drop the Flash Flood
Watch but still expecting periods of light to moderate rain to
linger through the mid afternoon. 43
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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NWS San Antonio/Austin are sending out survey teams to the Quarry area of San Antonio and also possibly secondary team to Travis, Hayes, Bastrop and Williamson Counties to survey wind damage reports.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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Fortunately the line crashed and burned once it hit Brazos Co about 2 am last night. Just a thorough soaking. Way to go Aggiedome.
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