December 2016- End Of Year Forecast

[BlueJay]

We had a wonderful Christmas day with a late lunch on the patio and lingered outside chatting until after dark. No mosquitos attended. It will be a Christmas we will not soon forget because it was not cold!

Enjoy the day everyone!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Euro,Canadian and GFS all believe in a big front the first week of January with sun freezing temps and potentially some precip...

[DoctorMu]

Euro,Canadian and GFS all believe in a big front the first week of January with sun freezing temps and potentially some precip...

Now THAT'S cold!

[Portastorm]

Set new record high temps today in Austin with 84 at Camp Mabry and 85 at the airport. The unseasonable warmth continues unfortunately.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Euro,Canadian and GFS all believe in a big front the first week of January with sun freezing temps and potentially some precip...

Now THAT'S cold!

Special kind of cold

[snowman65]

Whatever the GFS was saying about cold is all gone now....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Whatever the GFS was saying about cold is all gone now....

No it hasn't

[texan2]

I saw a vote on khou / twitter but couldn't get my vote counted!
I would like to see cold weather.....at least below 60!

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

As if 2015 was not hot enough in late December….2016 will not be outdone.

High temperature records are falling almost daily at the local climate sites with IAH having reached 84 yesterday making it the second hottest December temperature ever in the City of Houston. Warm and very muggy conditions will continue today and Wednesday before a cold front moves into the area on Thursday. Until Thursday dewpoints running 68-73 over the lower 60 degree water temperatures will continue to promote a dense sea fog bank along the coast. Sea fog has been very thick overnight with visibilities running 1/8 to ¼ of a mile at most coastal sites into the Houston Ship Channel. Will see very slow visibility improvements today along the coast with light winds and some locations may remain socked in all day. Visibilities will crater again this evening as sea fog spreads back inland. Will continue to deal with sea fog until the front passes off the coast on Thursday.

SW winds ahead of the approaching front on Wednesday will likely result in another day of record warmth with surface highs pushing toward the lower 80’s. Cold front will move across the area on Thursday morning with falling temperatures in the 60’s and possibly into the upper 50’s on Thursday. Cold Friday with lows into the 40’s and highs in the 50’s.

An upper level storm system currently off the S CA coast will begin to move toward TX this weekend. Clouds will rapidly increase late Friday while warm air advection regime allows a warm front to move northward and into SE TX on Saturday. Expect sloppy conditions with fog, drizzle, light rain and showers for much of the weekend as a warm muggy air mass returns to the region to end 2016. 2017 looks to begin as much of 2016 has been…warm!

While it has been warm locally, it has been very warm in the northern Arctic regions. Temperatures over the last few days have risen to nearly 50 degrees above normal with the actual surface temperature nearing 32 which is extremely rare for this time of year. Arctic sea ice continues its decline at a time of year where sea ice expansion would be expected.

[Thundersleet]

Ouch, bummer! But, yeah, I also noticed that while I was viewing the temperatures across the globe. No good I take it, particularly if you are a cold weather reveler.

[Thundersleet]

Ouch, bummer! But, yeah, I also noticed that while I was viewing the temperatures across the globe. No good I take it, particularly if you are a cold weather lover.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Will be going for several records today…the biggest is that today is the 5th straight day of 80 plus degree high temperatures…this has never happened before in December in the City of Houston. All-time December record high of 85 (hottest it has ever been in December) may also be within reach today and the daily record of 80 will likely fall.

Mini heat wave which has brought several records including record highs at all 3 primary climate sites (GLS, HOU, IAH) yesterday will continue one more day. Even with the thick sea fog Galveston was able to break its old record of 74 by 4 degrees yesterday. Surface winds will turn SSW to SW today ahead of an approaching old front that will cross the region tonight. These SW winds along with breaks in the overcast and sea fog will allow afternoon temperatures to surge into the low to mid 80’s. Dewpoints continue to run in the lower 70’s across lower 60 degree water temperatures resulting in coastal sea fog. Galveston has been bouncing various visibilities since the 25th in sea fog and looks like very slow if any improvement today. Cold front tonight will end the sea fog threat for may be a day or so.

Front tonight will usher in a Canadian air mass which will knock temperatures back toward normal for this time of year with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s. Will likely see a period of gusty winds Thursday morning behind this front out of the NNE as high pressure builds into TX. Cold air will be brief as the surface highs begins to move eastward late Friday and southerly winds begin to return.

Warm front will organize over the Gulf waters early Saturday and push across the area Saturday with temperatures warming back into the 70’s by afternoon. A storm system off the S CA coast currently will begin to eject ENE across TX this weekend and will interact with the increasing moisture to produce waves of rainfall Saturday into Sunday. Models are showing fairly high rain chances for Saturday into Saturday night…running 60-80% so a wet NYE looks likely. Another cold front looks to move across the region at some point on Sunday, but broad troughing will likely keep clouds and rain lingering into Monday.

Long Range:
Confidence is increasing that a surge of very cold arctic air will be ushered into the US the first few days of 2017. Upper air pattern being shown on nearly all of the major global models supports the building of a large scale ridge into Alaska and a large downstream trough over much of the US by mid to late next week. While it is currently not very cold in the source regions of NW Canada and Alaska, cold air will be flooding these regions from northern Siberia over the next few days. Upper air pattern going into late next week shows a deep trough over the NW US with a broad zonal flow across much of the US. This type of pattern can keep arctic air bottled up near the US/Canada border, but the more likely outcome is that a shallow and very cold air mass slides southward under its own density down the plains. Global models tend to struggle greatly with such air masses due to their shallow nature and usually do not show enough cooling behind such fronts. Unlike the previous arctic front a few weeks ago which was much sharper and deeper in nature, the shallow nature of this front along with the broad trough to our WNW and flow over top of this air mass may bring a winter storm to TX toward the end of next week. The GFS has been hinting at this potential and the ECMWF shows stronger support. Temperature profiles both at the surface and aloft will determine what if any P-type considerations would be possible over portions of TX. For now something to keep an eye on.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Worst 5 December days in Houston history

[CrashTestDummy]

BEST 5 December days in Houston history

There, fixed that for you.

Being able to sit out in the back yard, enjoying the sunsets and playing with the pups has been a blessing this last week.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

BEST 5 December days in Houston history

There, fixed that for you.

Being able to sit out in the back yard, enjoying the sunsets and playing with the pups has been a blessing this last week.

I left Houston because, IMO, the weather was so depressing. I'm currently enjoying 14 inches of new snow and 6 degrees in Big Sky!

[CrashTestDummy]

Heh, funny how stuff like that works out! I made my mind up at the ripe age of about 8, standing in my parent's driveway in Fairborn, Ohio, in a foot of snow and gray slush, that I'd NEVER purposely live anywhere it regularly-snowed.

And here in southeast Texas, it's too cold for my wife who grew up in Miami.

[davidiowx]

In lala land but the trend is our friend!

[snowman65]

Yeah....check this out...lol

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_43.png

[BlueJay]

Heh, funny how stuff like that works out! I made my mind up at the ripe age of about 8, standing in my parent's driveway in Fairborn, Ohio, in a foot of snow and gray slush, that I'd NEVER purposely live anywhere it regularly-snowed.

And here in southeast Texas, it's too cold for my wife who grew up in Miami.

It is good that some may like, prefer or need to live in frigid conditions because not everyone can live in one place.
For the record though, I agree with CrashTestDummy and his wife.

[DoctorMu]

I like a change of pace. Summer is hot and boring here. There's plenty of hot and warm weather throughout the year...some cool weather with an occasional blue norther and wintry mischief tease is a nice respite and entertainment, before severe season. I've lived in South Central Texas for 25 years and have never seen frigid weather here - mid teens or below.

70s happen in the winter in Texas, but the dew point has been too sticky in late December. I'd like to have a month or two where I'm not sweating during any activity outside!...particularly in winter, when there are fewer bugs around.


GFS had frost/hard freeze in the area Jan 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. We'll see.