December 2016- End Of Year Forecast

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 Outlook as well as the Day 8+ Analogs along with the 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/GEM Ensembles are in rather good agreement suggesting a colder and messy pattern may be developing as we head into the late weekend and early next week timeframe. A pesky stretched from NE to SW cold upper trough typically spells cold temperatures at the surface with over running moisture from the Eastern Pacific. It is becoming a bit clearer that a strong Arctic front will arrive Sunday setting the stage for a cold and dreary pattern into the week before Christmas.
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12132016 12Z GEM 168 gem-ens_z500aNorm_namer_29.png
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Dreary wouldn't be the word I would be looking for. :)


More like Winter-like or Christmas appropriate!
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The problem with forecasting a snow storm in Houston is figuring out the position and track of the coastal low. IF a low forms a little further southeast and is a little stronger than forecast it can pull in more cold air, but also pull moisture further offshore, stunting the snow chance. A little closer to the coast of Galveston, and you get the moisture, but not enough cold air. However, the larger ensemble pattern appears to be favoring an amplified pattern that would allow for a shallow modified arctic air mass to reach the upper Texas coast. Where will the coastal low form? Will one form at all? What will the track be? Or will there be a little, unseen, disturbance ride overhead from the southwest to coincide with morning low temps near freezing?? And then there is the dew point and wet bulbing and... Not going to lose sleep over any of this, but I'm watching...
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Just curious but when was the last measurable snowfall in S.E Tx? I'm talking about inches, not just a dusting.
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srainhoutx
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snowman65 wrote:Just curious but when was the last measurable snowfall in S.E Tx? I'm talking about inches, not just a dusting.
December 2008 brought a round of snow along and S of I-10 with a potent cold core upper low that moved out of San Antonio into Houston. December 2009 brought areas near Sugarland on East 3 to 5 inches. January, February' and early March 1973 is still my benchmark for memorable snow fall across SE Texas. The City was virtually shut down for 2 days in January 11-12, 1973 with some isolated locations receiving 6 to 8 inches. The image below is a reanalysis of the January 11th, 1973 pattern.
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Heat Miser wrote:I'm not getting excited about the possibility of our northern areas (probably a good 80 miles to my north) getting a few if any ice pellets.
Let's talk about a good 2 to 3 inches of snow, maybe more, and a chance it will stay on the ground more than a day, then I'll get a tad interested.
Been burned way too many times in getting excited about the prospects of frozen precip in this area since my childhood.
I recall as a wee child shining a flashlight out of my window for hours on end in the hopes of seeing anything besides liquid fall.
It was not to be.
Everyone recalls the 2004 Christmas eve miracle. I remember some in the weather business hinting at the possibility of snow that Friday, but none and I mean not one said anything about a full blown coastal white-out with 3 inches in Friendswood and the further south southwest were ridiculous amounts up to 11 inches.
Firmly believe meteorologist in this area don't have a grasp of winter weather as they do normal sub tropical weather patterns such as your typical sea breeze thunderstorm or your Tropical systems.
Can't really be upset with them because the real threats for our area come from the Gulf and your rare super cell.
Actually, there were predictions of significant snowfall (that means a half inch+ in Houston). The system took a leap from the Hill Country to the coast. My kids and I drove down in a Dodge van down 290 towards H-town from College Station. Snow began to fall as we reached FM1960. We grabbed some lunch and headed to my wife's brother near I-10. But the time we arrived, the streets were mushy and 1-2 inches had stuck on the grass. While we drove down Gaesser, the thermostat stuck. True story - the minivan overheated in the snow on Christmas Eve! There was only on gas/service station open - we limped in and walked to brother in law's pad a few blocks away.

Blew out the #1 cylinder...my wife eventually drove down...and by then were were 3-4 inches of snow on ground. I traded in the Dodge 2 weeks later after it was "fixed." Unforgettable in so many ways.
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srainhoutx wrote:
snowman65 wrote:Just curious but when was the last measurable snowfall in S.E Tx? I'm talking about inches, not just a dusting.
December 2008 brought a round of snow along and S of I-10 with a potent cold core upper low that moved out of San Antonio into Houston. December 2009 brought areas near Sugarland on East 3 to 5 inches. January, February' and early March 1973 is still my benchmark for memorable snow fall across SE Texas. The City was virtually shut down for 2 days in January 11-12, 1973 with some isolated locations receiving 6 to 8 inches. The image below is a reanalysis of the January 11th, 1973 pattern.
Those are 2 of the last 3 real snowfalls in CLL. We had a brief morning snow (not quite an inch) in March 2010(?)...just a few ice pellets since then.
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Dreary wouldn't be the word I would be looking for. :)


More like Winter-like or Christmas appropriate!
Today was like Melbourne in CLL - 4 seasons in one day. Foggy, then cool, then sunny and warm, now a north wind blowing and cold. We are in the midst of a Godzilla vs. Mothra battle of air masses. The Midwest is becoming locked in a deep freeze. It's going to be a wild roller coaster for the next week.


Chicago's low Wednesday = 0°F with a high of 5°F Thursday. Wind chills of -20°F.
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Some impressive dynamics with this next artic blast. Models indicate locations along central and western Texas could see Highs in the 70s on Friday and then 15 degrees the next morning. Dewpoints around here look to go from the 70s to the 20s and 30s in a matter of a couple hours. What also needs to be watched is the presence of an upper level low that will swing around the region early next week. Could see some winter precip over central and western Texas.
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Yowza. If this isn't a strong cold front, I don't know what is. On Saturday evening, temperatures ranging from 26 degrees above average near ArkLATex, to >30 degrees below normal in the panhandle. Definitely has the potential to bring areas at least North of I-10 a freeze on Monday morning. Of course when I come back down there in a couple weeks, I will probably be wearing shorts! The wind chill this morning was -7 where I am.
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Cooler weather weather the next 2 days with highs in the 60s today, lows in the 40s to low 50s and highs Thursday in the upper 50s to low 60s along the coastal areas with partly cloudy to mostly cloud skies. Onshore flow returns Friday with significant warming and increasing rain chances. Mid to upper 70s Friday and Saturday across SE TX. Saturday night will be active with the potential for severe weather ahead of the strong cold front that will drop temps between 30 and 35F by Sunday morning. NTX will see temps drop by 45F in many areas Saturday afternoon and evening.
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unome
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current forecast goes from a high of 78 on Sat to a wind chill temp of 24 early Mon AM

that will be a :shock: to the system

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Last edited by unome on Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:50 am, edited 7 times in total.
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Confidence increasing that we will warm up Friday into Saturday ahead of the next shot of modified Arctic Air arrives late Saturday night into early Sunday. The big concern immediately with this next Arctic boundary are the unusually cold wind chill readings expected even here in SE Texas where those wind chill valued could be in the low to middle teens to low 20'sF for feels like temperatures.

The next issue is a low confidence forecast regarding a pesky SW upper low/trough near the Baja Peninsula next Monday into Tuesday. At the surface, temperatures will be cold, but a very noisy SW flow aloft above the shallow surface cold air tends to make for a cloudy and unsettled pattern. The last episode where we experienced this sort of set up brought 11+ inches of rain to Texas City a couple of weekends ago and surface temperatures were stuck in the mid 50's as a Coastal low/trough developed as you recall. This time temperatures are expected to be about 15 to 20 degrees colder which creates problems, particularly across the Hill Country and North Texas with the potential of freezing rain/sleet possibly mixed with a few flakes of snow, depending on how cold aloft the temperatures are. This is the timeframe that we will need to watch a bit more carefully as we get closer to the weekend and early next week. As David Paul posted, nothing to loose sleep over, but we will be watching.
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Very interesting days ahead for all.

A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68.
Saturday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78.
Saturday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 46.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 44.
Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Tuesday A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 46.[/quote]


000
FXUS64 KHGX 141203
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
603 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Surface analysis has cold front in the Gulf with north winds over
much of SE Texas. Ceilings have dropped to IFR for all TAF sites
except KCLL where low MVFR ceilings prevail. KCLL may hold at MVFR
with no up stream obs showing lower ceilings. Low ceilings should
hold through much of the day and begin to thin out and lift some
during the afternoon. A deeper layer of dry air does not arrive
until overnight so still could have broken ceilings through the
evening hours. KLBX/KGLS may not completely clear out of clouds
until later on Thursday morning.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A surface ridge will build into SE Texas today. As the center of
the ridge moves across the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley on
Thursday and Friday, onshore winds will return Gulf moisture and
warmer temperatures across our area. Warm air and moist air
advection will occur on Friday and Saturday ahead of a cold front
to return rain chances both days; although a capping inversion
should limit rainfall until just ahead of the cold frontal
passage. The cold front is expected to move across the forecast
area late Saturday and be off of the coast shortly between
midnight and sunrise Saturday night/Sunday morning. Another
surface ridge of high pressure will then bring much cooler
temperatures to SE Texas for the first part of next week.

Regarding daily details, warm temperatures will be the main item
of concern today and Thursday, rain chances over the first half of
the weekend, and then cold temperatures for the first part of
next week beginning on Sunday. The models are showing a warmer day
today than on Thursday, even with more cloud cover today. A
secondary cold frontal push on Thursday will aid in bring cooler
temperatures as the surface ridge builds overhead. Both Friday
and Saturday will see warmer than normal daytime highs due to the
onshore winds. One thing to keep in mind will be the return of fog
issues which may spread inland from sea fog formation over the
nearshore and bay waters Friday night.

Both the GFS and ECMWF agree that a fairly strong shortwave trough
should move across the Southern Plains on Saturday and Saturday
night. SE Texas should come under the right-rear quadrant of the
upper level jet as the front moves across the area Saturday night.
The best time period for thunderstorms will be Saturday night
ahead of the front due to a fairly strong cap in place during
the afternoon.

Much cooler than normal temperatures will occur behind the front
on Sunday through Tuesday, with the lowest temperatures Sunday
night and Monday morning. Some locations will possibly experience
wind chills in the teens Sunday night and early Monday morning as
well if the northerly winds stay in the 10 to 15 mph range.
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I'm up in Dallas and the TV mets are saying a 50-degree drop from sat pm to sun am...
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Water Vapor imagery shows the next shot of Arctic air pushing South across the Yukon Territories of Western Canada. Carmacks is currently reporting -40C and that very cold Artic air will be headed our way Friday into Saturday. Way to the left across the Northern Pacific, the disturbance that will eventually impact a early week weather is approaching.

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srainhoutx
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Folks are wondering what the weather may bring as we get closer to Christmas. If the GFS is correct in the longer range, a highly amplified pattern with the jet stream diving well South as well as a cold upper trough may provide some hints. Of course this beyond the useful range of the computer models for 'finer' details, but there is a chance that Christmas will bring weather not suitable to wearing shorts and flips in our part of the World.
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12142016 12Z GFS 240 gfs_z500a_namer_41.png
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Mrs. Portastorm's work is having their holiday party Sunday evening here in Austin at the Trail of Lights ... where expected temps will be at or slightly below freezing with wind chills in the upper teens or low 20s.

That's one party I am NOT looking forward to. ;)
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While in Dallas last month, I noticed KXAS, the NBC affiliate in Fort Worth, bought themselves an S-band radar to use. It's owned by the station and their mets have full control of where they want to point it. I found this story on their website.
http://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/stories/N ... 16211.html

Will S-band radars become something new for stations to own or is it too expensive?
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Wednesday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

This weekend will feature two seasons…summer on Saturday and winter on Sunday!

Thursday-early Friday:
Weak cool front has crept into the near shore waters overnight with another day of low clouds and fog across the region with temperatures steady in the 60’s. Sea fog has been largely pushed offshore, but is just awaiting the winds to come back around to the S late Thursday to spread back into the coastal areas. Cool again on Thursday with mainly cloudy skies followed by rapid warming Friday and Saturday with slightly increased rain chances.

Friday-Saturday:
Period will feature very warm conditions for mid December with IAH likely to approach a record high of 80 on Saturday under strong warm air advection pattern. Large storm system will exit into the plains bringing warm air northward from the Gulf and unleashing a cold surge of arctic air down the high plains. May see some light showers on Saturday, but main rain chances will be confined to right along the incoming frontal boundary.

Saturday night-Sunday:
Arctic front will blast across the area between midnight and sunrise. Onset of strong cold air advection will likely result in a temperatures drop of 20-25 degrees with the frontal passage…form the 70’s into the 40’s in less than an hour. Front will be accompanied by strong NNW winds of 15-25mph with higher gust driving wind chills by Sunday morning into the 20’s and 30’s. Upstream air mass is very cold with a high of only 32 forecast for Dallas on Sunday, so current temperatures in the low 40’s on Sunday may be too warm and may need to undercut guidance in the coming days. Mid level deck should remain in place behind the front, but not expecting any precipitation at this time. Could see a temperature difference of nearly 40 degrees between Saturday and Sunday…so be prepared.

Early Next Week:
Not sure when if at all clouds will clear post front which will result in poor forecast confidence during the overnight periods on just how low temperatures will fall. Latest GFS does indicate a freeze potential both Monday and Tuesday mornings…but I was burned last week with the clouds and will be much more careful this time. Will go with 34-36 Monday AM and Tuesday AM until we get closer to the period to get a better handle of the post frontal cloud pattern.

Stormy pattern looks to continue right into the holiday period with another big storm system coming out of the SW US right before Christmas. Way too soon to tell what surface temperature profiles will look like around the end of next week, but this could be a big messy winter storm for portions of the southern plains and could see some widespread rainfall over SE TX.
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