November 2016 -will cooler temps prevail along with rain

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Cromagnum
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Lots of thunder and wind in Rosharon. Even some hail too.
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jasons2k
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Only 0.10" here - barely enough to wet the pavement.
BlueJay
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63F
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Katdaddy
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Only .20" here in W League City but 1.3 miles to the N along Clear Creek the Harris County Flood Control rain gauge recorded 1.20" with highest total of 1.48" in Friendswood. The first strong cold front each Fall is always refreshing. Expect strong gusty winds along the Upper TX Coast with gusts up to TS force possible. Wind Advisory in effect until 9AM tomorrow.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
302 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

.STRONG NORTH WIND EXPECTED BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT.

TXZ214-236>238-190515-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0010.161119T0000Z-161119T1500Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-MATAGORDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...LAKE JACKSON...LEAGUE CITY...
MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...TEXAS CITY...WINNIE
302 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
CST SATURDAY.

* EVENT...NORTH WIND 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH

* TIMING...UNTIL 9AM

* IMPACT...COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING ALONG EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS
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wxman57
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1.05" in Westbury. Pretty good storm in SW Houston.
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srainhoutx
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47F this morning in NW Harris County making it the coldest morning of the season in my backyard. Emptied almost a 1/2 inch of rain from the gauge this morning as well. Congratulations to those that received much more rainfall.

The overnight guidance has trended a bit colder for tomorrow morning across the Northern and Northeastern zones of SE Texas. We may see Freeze Watches issued later today for the Piney Woods around Lake Livingston if the trends continue today.
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mckinne63
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It stormed pretty heavy here in Stafford yesterday afternoon. Filled up the pool and the pond. Yay to not having to put the hose in for a few days! Loving these cool temps. I smiled when I got to put on my jacket this morning. :mrgreen:
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DoctorMu
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30°F in Conroe for the first freeze of the season.

Frost on the ground but no freeze for CLL, which registered a low of 34°F

36°F at IAH this morning.


Chance of rain Tuesday and Tuesday evening before a mild T-giving weekend. Marginal risk of severe weather.

Image

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A bit cooler last night than expected for northern areas of the
FA...but we should see warmer temps all around tonight with the
surface high moving off to the east. Light onshore winds are expected
to develop tonight and then strengthen by tomorrow afternoon as
the next upper trof begins to move in from the west. As it is
currently shown, this appears to be the start of a rather
progressive/active wx pattern for SE TX for the coming week.

This first upper trof will help to drag a cold front across the
region starting late in the day on Tuesday. Models remain
consistent with the timing of this boundary...along with likely
POPS generated via this feature. Progged PWs from 1.5"-1.7"
combined with a semi-favorable upper jet position,
a strong vort
max
and the lift from the front itself could produce some strong
storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. SE TX is currently in
the SPC Day 3 outlook.

The rest of the forecast (especially for Thanksgiving) looks to
stay largely unchanged for now. 12z runs continuing the trend of
bringing the front back inland Thurs night, and then another cold
front from the north on Fri...with the passage of the next upper
trof (but this one over the Central Plains). 41
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Ptarmigan
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Severe Cold and Near Record Breaking High Pressure
http://www.westernpacificweather.com/20 ... -pressure/

Parts of North East Asia are looking at absolutely frigid temperatures combined with some near record breaking high pressures Monday morning. In one location in Northern Mongolia the sea level pressure rose to a stunning 1085.1HPA. (The highest SLP on record over 750m is 1090.1hpa at the same point in 2004.) With a pressure this high and through the overnight hours a massive amount of nocturnal cooling took place combined with a inversion with the cold air and temperatures were pushed down to -40C, so cold that the temperature Celsius temperature was actually lower than the Fahrenheit.

A 1085.1 millibar high is very strong. If that happened in February, it would be much colder.
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Katdaddy
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Warming temps and increasing moisture will lead to severe thunderstorms across S Central, SE, and E TX Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. The SPC has a slight risk area posted for theses areas with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes being the main threat. Low rain chances arrive Thursday night and Friday with the passage of another cool front. Most areas in SE TX will see highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s through next weekend.

TD 16 has formed in the SW Caribbean Sea and forecast to drift toward Nicaragua during the weekend. TD 16 is forecast to become TS Otto and may become a hurricane before landfall.
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srainhoutx
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Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Active weather pattern in place through the holiday weekend.

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday morning.

Cold Canadian high pressure which brought a light freeze to portions of SE TX Sunday morning is moving eastward and SE winds will rapidly return moisture to the area today ahead of the next storm system currently centered over southern California. Offshore dewpoints in the 60’s will advance inland by this evening with clouds advecting from the NW Gulf. Will hold off on any showers for now until Tuesday as the models may be a bit faster in dragging the higher moisture inland.

Tuesday-Wednesday:
Strong and compact storm system moves across TX with severe weather possible. Moisture will have increased by Tuesday and expect a low level convergence zone to become established from the middle TX coast NNE into SE OK by early to mid afternoon. Large scale lift will gradually increase during the day as the core of the storm system moves into W TX. A robust upper level disturbance will plow eastward Tuesday evening with a frontal boundary crossing the area early Wednesday. Dynamics look impressive with this system and coupled with surging PWS to near 1.7 inches, decent instability, and favorable low level wind shear all point toward strong to severe storms…and SPC Day 2 (SWO) has much of the NW ½ of SE outlooked in a severe threat for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.

One feature to watch on Tuesday afternoon and evening will be the mentioned convergence zone from the mid TX coast NNE into SE OK which will include a good portion of the western half of SE TX. There may be a period where discrete cells can develop well ahead of the incoming front and given the progged wind shear some of these cells could produce tornadoes. This also appears to be in a favored ahead of higher moisture advection (theta-E) and likely lowered cloud bases. Not overly concerned with the tornado threat at the moment, but something to watch on Tuesday.

Give the parameters in place all severe modes will be possible (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes). Main threats will be large hail and wind damage especially along any bowing line segments. Severe threat will continue most of the night and into Wednesday morning. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches look likely with isolated amounts of 3 inches. Could see some good hourly rates with strong dynamics and high moisture levels.

Front will clear the coast quickly Wednesday morning with rapid clearing. Temperatures will cool back to seasonal normal for Thanksgiving Day with lows in the 40’s and highs in the upper 60’s. Will hold off on rain chances for Thanksgiving Day, but old front will activate as a warm front by Thanksgiving evening and begin to advance northward into SE TX from the Gulf waters. For now will go with increasing clouds Thursday afternoon and then a chance for showers Thursday night. GFS has come in significantly wetter for “Black Friday” as the warm front lifts slowly into the area. Will hold rain chances at 30% for now and await additional guidance to either come around to the wetter GFS solution or the GFS to trend drier.

Next storm system will be due in to the area by the end of the holiday weekend with rain chances increasing again Sunday-Monday.

SPC Day 2 (Tuesday) Severe Weather Outlook:
image001.gif
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jasons2k
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Another round of rain would be welcome. Maybe I can get more than a tenth on an inch.
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DoctorMu
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Ptarmigan wrote:Severe Cold and Near Record Breaking High Pressure
http://www.westernpacificweather.com/20 ... -pressure/

Parts of North East Asia are looking at absolutely frigid temperatures combined with some near record breaking high pressures Monday morning. In one location in Northern Mongolia the sea level pressure rose to a stunning 1085.1HPA. (The highest SLP on record over 750m is 1090.1hpa at the same point in 2004.) With a pressure this high and through the overnight hours a massive amount of nocturnal cooling took place combined with a inversion with the cold air and temperatures were pushed down to -40C, so cold that the temperature Celsius temperature was actually lower than the Fahrenheit.

A 1085.1 millibar high is very strong. If that happened in February, it would be much colder.

Woah. Switch that numerically, but woah. Wooden steering wheels.

Chance of robust Blue Northers this winter continues to increase.
vci_guy2003
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How does the the record Arctic temps affect how cold it will get? Has the cold air just shifted to other areas of the world?
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Katdaddy
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The slight risk area remains across E Central and NE TX which includes N portions of SE TX. GOM moisture and low-level jet in advance of the front may allow a few supercells to develop late this evening with damaging downburst winds being main threat however an isolated tornado could be possible. The line of broken thunderstorms with the cool front will move across SE TX and the Upper TX coast late tonight and into Wednesday morning.

Thanksgiving day looks to be mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 70s. Slight rain chances arrive Friday with the a warm front moving up the TX Coast.
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srainhoutx
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Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Active weather pattern for the next several weeks with multiple storm systems to affect the southern plains and TX.

The first system will eject into the central plains today dragging a cold front across TX tonight and early Wednesday. Ahead of this feature southerly low level winds and SW mid and upper level winds are returning moisture. Morning PWS of around .6 of an inch will rapidly increase to near 1.6 inches by this evening as SW Gulf air mass is brought northward into the area. A low level jet of 25-35kts will develop by mid afternoon from the mid TX coast into SE OK where a low level convergence zone will form. Was concerned yesterday that this zone may overcome the mid level capping and initiate supercells structures by mid afternoon, but this looks less likely this morning.

A strong disturbance currently over the southern Rockies will eject into the underside of the emerging trough and spread lift across the developing warm sector air mass of E TX by early evening. Will need to watch the zone from roughly Columbus to Texarkana as some of the convection allowing models develop discrete supercells in this region in the time period from 400pm until 900pm before nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer increases capping. These cells coupled with the given wind shear could pose a tornado threat…mainly from Columbus to College Station to Huntsville.

Large scale forcing arrives overnight into Wednesday morning along the leading edge of the advancing cold front. Models show a broken line of thunderstorms moving across the area along the front from as early as midnight to as late as 900am Wednesday. Trend in the last 24 hours has been to slow down the frontal passage…so will lean toward a broken squall line crossing the area in the 200am to 800am time frame Wednesday. While a marginal severe weather threat does exist with the squall line…mainly damaging winds…the overall threat is lowered from yesterday given the expected later passage of the front.

Front clears the coast quickly Wednesday with high pressure rapidly building across the state. Clear skies and light winds will result in lows on Thanksgiving morning falling into the 40’s for most locations with highs in the mid 70’s. Clouds will begin to increase in the afternoon hours from the SW as the cool front begins to return as a warm front.

Will keep 20-30% rain chances for Friday under warm air advection regime ahead of the next cool front which may move off the coast late Friday. Overall the weekend appears dry…at least Saturday. By Sunday the next storm system begins its approach from the SW US with moisture starting its return late in the day. GFS brings a compact and deep trough across TX early next week with widespread rainfall and some severe weather would likely be possible while the ECMWF shows a weaker system displaced more toward the central plains.

Tropical Storm Otto:
Late season tropical storm has formed over the extreme SSW Caribbean Sea. USAF mission this morning has found a well defined 70mph TS with a small wind radius and deep convection over the center. Otto will likely become a hurricane later this morning even with 20kts of S shear over the system. Mid level ridging building over much of the Caribbean Sea will push the currently stationary system toward the west slowly over the next few days with landfall expected along the coast of Nicaragua or even northern Costa Rica late this week or this weekend. It is fairly rare to see a hurricane this far south in the Caribbean Sea.
11222016 Jeff 1 untitled.png
Arctic Polar Ice Anomalies:

Recent data from NOAA indicates that polar ice in the Arctic region of the northern hemisphere has reached in lowest extent in the last 30 years in October 2016. There is currently 6.4 million sq km of ice near and around the north pole region which is 2.4 million sq km below average for this time of year. Trends in sea ice concentrations in this region has decreased by 20% per decade especially in the boundary ice regions along the coasts of Canada and Russia. Of particular interest has been the sharp variability in the ice decrease and increase over the last several years starting around 2007-2008. A recent increase in sea ice in 2011-2013 has been completely wiped out in the last 18 months and sea ice concentrations have fallen below the previous low in 2007-2008.
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A plot of northern hemisphere polar temperatures reveal a significant warm period…record warmth…has been occurring for the last 18 months over the north pole with temperatures at times running on average 25-35 degrees above normal. While El Nino tends to lead to warming at the poles and the entire Earth in general, the degree of warming that has taken place during the most recent El Nino of 2015-2016 has been extremely significant and far beyond anything any previous strong El Nino has ever produced. Additionally, with El Nino’s demise this summer, Arctic temperatures continue to run well above normal…possibly a longer lasting atmospheric feedback from the recent El Nino event.

The plot below shows global temperature anomalies for October 2016…it is clear just how warmer the north pole regions are. Additionally one can see the extent of the record warm October over much of the US from the Great Lakes to the SW US. These temperature anomalies are based against 1951-1980 averages.
11222016 Jeff 3 untitled.png
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221725
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1125 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2016

.AVIATION...
Forecast generally seems on track, with only small tweaks needed
in the first several hours. Ceilings are close to MVFR, but at
this time generally expect them to stay on the VFR side of the
fence and have kept that in the forecast. Winds will continue to
be generally southerly, and strengthen in advance of the front.
The VCSH at the northern sites to open the forecast is probably a
bit aggressive, but with no other real change in the forecast, did
not want to add yet another line for such a minor change.

Perhaps the most significant change comes in slowing up the most
likely timeframe for a line of showers and storms sweeping
through the area as the picture continues to evolve towards this
being an overnight/Wed morning event. Still, given some
uncertainty, have kept a relatively wide window of VCSH and VCTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With clouds/moisture streaming in from the SW this morning...we
are starting to see some light returns across northern portions
of the area. At this time...not sure if any of this is actually
reaching the ground, but as the airmass moistens up, we will be
seeing some light rain/showers sooner than later. Current grids
look to be on track so no significant changes planned with this
update. Quick look at the incoming guidance would seem to indi-
cate that the better/more organized storms could hold off until
overnight tonight. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2016/

A vigorous shortwave disturbance is feeding into the southern
Rockies trough as it exits into the Plains states this morning.
The surface reflection of the trough`s associated cold front/warm
sector is entering the Texas Panhandle counties during the pre-
dawn hours. The northern passage of this upper trough and cold
front will initiate regional afternoon showers and isolated storms
leading to more areawide precipitation with a marginal chance for
overnight into early Wednesday morning strong to severe
thunderstorms.

Southwesterly mid-level steering flow...along with a moderate low
level southerly wind field...ahead of this southern Plains trough
is pulling in a more moist southern Texas/southwestern Gulf air
mass. Evening soundings of between a 0.5 to 1.0 inch pwats will
increase and pool up into the near 2 standard deviation 1.6 to 1.7
inch pwat range just downstream of this evening`s approaching
frontal boundary. The emergence of a greater than 30 knot low
level jet will enhance shear values to 20-25 kts and SRH values
into the 2-300 m**2/s**2 range within the lowest few kilometers
across the northern CWA through the day. These values are producing
a right curved hodograph this lends to the mention of enough shear
to generate rotating updrafts and develop/maintain supercelluar
storm structure. Thus the main threats for late day into early
Wednesday weather will be damaging downburst winds within or near
the core of the strongest more organized storm clusters...the
secondary threat will be for isolated tornadoes. Wet bulb zero
heights do fall to below 11k ft going into the evening so cannot
rule out small hail. An inhibitor to either the occurrence or
extent of severe weather will be early to mid day cloud cover
regulating surface warmth to the middle 70s with progged northern
CWA convective temperatures in the middle to upper 70s. Other
inhibiting factors include modest mid-level lapse rates that are
producing relatively lower most unstable parcel CAPE values...
although the more aggressive NAM model does produce late day
1000-1500 J/kg**2 values over the Brazos River Valley. Although
the better (thermo)dynamics will be displaced over northeastern
Texas there will be enough frontal forcing to allow a quasi-linear
.or ragged squall line feature to develop and travel east of
the Edwards Escarpment that will likely clip the northern counties
of our forecast area. This somewhat thin broken line of convection
will probably hold together as it travels south into the central
and southern CWA from the pre-dawn overnight hours through the
daylight morning hours.

High pressure quickly fills in behind tomorrow`s cold frontal
passage and kills any offshore pressure gradient. This will
generate a weaker veering north-to-east wind that will be back
onshore by early Friday morning. Weak ridging coming across the
state Thanksgiving Day will produce dry weather conditions...early
day clear skies becoming partially cloudy from the southwest.
Weak cold air advection behind Wednesday`s front will make for a
cool...but not too chilly...morning with sunrise temperatures in the
upper 40s to middle 50s warming into the middle 70s by the early
afternoon. A shallow upper trough passage Friday will pull in a weak
cool front into north central Texas Friday while pulling up a mild
warm front from the coast. Other than some weak PVA passing across
north state...there`s not much to support the rain showing up in the
NWP suite`s mass fields. For the sake of consistency ...have left 20-
30 POPS over the western forecast area going into the weekend.

Shallow transitory ridging this weekend with no precipitation...
near to slightly above normal temperature curve. The extended models
diverge upon how they are handling an early work week storm system.
The GFS digs down a deep trough into the state Monday while the Euro
hangs the trough back and lifts it out into northeastern Texas
Tuesday. Thus...rain/storm chances will be on the increase again
next Monday and Tuesday. Extended model statistics are for a 40-50%
chance for late Monday precipitation although with high variability
within their members. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 59 71 49 72 / 40 70 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 77 65 74 50 74 / 30 70 60 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 75 69 75 61 71 / 20 60 60 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...25
Cromagnum
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Swing and a miss? All quiet so far.
A.V.

I do wonder: What determines whether a cold front passage comes in dry, or with thunderstorms/rain? I notice that some cold fronts are preceded by storms and rain, whereas other come in dry, without even a cloud in the sky.
Ounce
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Looks like the north side is getting some love, this morning, except for the dome protecting Jasons' house from getting wet. He's awfully particular on the type of wet that gets absorbed by his lawn. ;)
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