November 2016 -will cooler temps prevail along with rain

[srainhoutx]

NOAA officially declared La Nina conditions have arrived. To put in perspective, the last La Nina following a Super El Nino was the winter of 1983. Those of us that remember December 1983 recall bitter cold swept across Texas bringing one of the coldest December since records have been kept across SE Texas. We will see..

[BiggieSmalls]

Would be a big upgrade from one of the warmest falls ever to date

[Ptarmigan]

NOAA officially declared La Nina conditions have arrived. To put in perspective, the last La Nina following a Super El Nino was the winter of 1983. Those of us that remember December 1983 recall bitter cold swept across Texas bringing one of the coldest December since records have been kept across SE Texas. We will see..

Let's not forget 1997-1998 was a Super El Nino and there was a strong and prolonged La Nina from 1998-2000.

Winter 1983 was a moderate La Nina. The December cold blasts was due to negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO), in which there is ridging over Alaska and Eastern Russia. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was positive, in which there was troughing over Greenland and Northeastern Canada.

I have seen cold blasts in La Nina like in 1895, 1899, 1911, 1918, 1924, 1951, 1962, 1963, 1983, 1989, 1996, and 2011.

The top 3 longest freezes in Houston history occurred in La Nina; 1951, 1989, and 1983.

Houston Freeze Duration
http://www.wxresearch.com/almanac/frezhour.htm

[DoctorMu]

NOAA officially declared La Nina conditions have arrived. To put in perspective, the last La Nina following a Super El Nino was the winter of 1983. Those of us that remember December 1983 recall bitter cold swept across Texas bringing one of the coldest December since records have been kept across SE Texas. We will see..

...and Siberia is primed for waves of polar crossing over into Alaska, Canada and the US. the Super El Nino put a block on polar expresses last year, but climb aboard! Siberia and the rest of Russia are frozen over early.

[A.V.]

On the other and, winter will be mild across the Eastern US, according to this:
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/stat ... wsrc%5Etfw

[Ounce]

NOAA officially declared La Nina conditions have arrived. To put in perspective, the last La Nina following a Super El Nino was the winter of 1983. Those of us that remember December 1983 recall bitter cold swept across Texas bringing one of the coldest December since records have been kept across SE Texas. We will see..

Let's not forget 1997-1998 was a Super El Nino and there was a strong and prolonged La Nina from 1998-2000.

Winter 1983 was a moderate La Nina. The December cold blasts was due to negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO), in which there is ridging over Alaska and Eastern Russia. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was positive, in which there was troughing over Greenland and Northeastern Canada.

I have seen cold blasts in La Nina like in 1895, 1899, 1911, 1918, 1924, 1951, 1962, 1963, 1983, 1989, 1996, and 2011.

The top 3 longest freezes in Houston history occurred in La Nina; 1951, 1989, and 1983.

Houston Freeze Duration
http://www.wxresearch.com/almanac/frezhour.htm

PT? You saw the cold blasts in 1895, 1899, 1911, 1918, and 1924? DANG, you're old!

[Katdaddy]

Our first real cold front to arrive next Friday.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
357 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Overcast lingering over the southern half of the CWA has kept many
communities under 70 F through the day...many will top out in the
lower 70s just before sunrise. Mainly clear skies will allow overnight
temperatures to fall into the interior upper 50s by midnight. A
warmer day to start out the work week as mid levels warm into the
lower 50s and weak surface winds come out the southwest under partially
cloudy skies. Upper ridging building in from the southwest ...with
a reinforcing dry front ahead of an eastern expanding Rocky lee surface
high on Tuesday...will maintain regionally dry and a near normal
diurnal temperature curve through mid-week.

Surface high pressure re-positioning itself over the Mississippi
River Valley will re-introduce return flow Wednesday followed by
a solid two days of increasing moisture/cloudiness and above normal
temperatures. A cold frontal passage Friday will initiate the first
region-wide rain chances in about a week and a half. As of now...a
fairly aggressive fropa will come through sometime during the day
Friday that should kick off more organized (rain) showers with
isolated/embedded (primarily elevated?) thunderstorms. Along with
progged dry mid-layers...thermo nor dynamic indices are not overly
high enough to currently mention any significant weather with
this front`s late work week passage. In the post-frontal...weekend
weather appears to be pristine with chilled mornings in the
interior 40s/coastal 50s warming into the below normal 60s. 31

&&

.MARINE...
Light north to northeast winds are expected on Monday as weak high
pressure settles over West Texas. Winds will become light and variable
Monday night through early Wednesday as high pressure drifts across the
region. Onshore winds will return Wednesday night as in response to
developing low pressure in the lee of the Rockies. Onshore winds will
strengthen Thursday night as the low strengthens and moves across the
northern plains. Onshore winds will relax a bit on Friday ahead of a
cold front that will cross the coast Friday night. A strong offshore
flow will develop in the wake of the front and a Small Craft Advisory
will likely be required next weekend.

A weak flow with a small onshore component, coupled with high tides
associated with a full moon will produce elevated tides late tonight
through Wednesday. Tide levels could reach 3.3 feet early next week
during high tide and some minor flooding will be possible on Hwy 87
at high tide Monday through Wednesday. 43

[srainhoutx]

The longer range guidance suggests the potential of a possible stronger cold front arriving during the Thanksgiving Holidays. For those anticipating traveling for Thanksgiving, it could be rather stormy and rather cold from the Rockies on East. We will be 'fine tuning' the sensible weather forecast as we get closer to Thanksgiving week. Stay tuned!

[srainhoutx]

The overnight GFS is indicating a rather strong Winter Storm progressing across the Northern tier of States from the Rockies to the Northern Plains and Western Great Lakes Region. This front should send a good shot of modified cold air South across Texas this weekend.

[Ptarmigan]

Let's not forget 1997-1998 was a Super El Nino and there was a strong and prolonged La Nina from 1998-2000.

Winter 1983 was a moderate La Nina. The December cold blasts was due to negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO), in which there is ridging over Alaska and Eastern Russia. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was positive, in which there was troughing over Greenland and Northeastern Canada.

I have seen cold blasts in La Nina like in 1895, 1899, 1911, 1918, 1924, 1951, 1962, 1963, 1983, 1989, 1996, and 2011.

The top 3 longest freezes in Houston history occurred in La Nina; 1951, 1989, and 1983.

Houston Freeze Duration
http://www.wxresearch.com/almanac/frezhour.htm

PT? You saw the cold blasts in 1895, 1899, 1911, 1918, and 1924? DANG, you're old!

Based on MEI.

Before 1950
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.e ... e.ext.html

Since 1950
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

[Katdaddy]

Some warm days ahead before Friday' cold front sweep across SE TX resulting much cooler temps for the weekend. Hopefully some areas will some well needed rains from a few scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm ahead of the front.

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Strong cold front will cross SE TX Friday.

In what has been thus far an unseasonably warm fall, an intrusion of colder air this weekend will actually bring temperatures below normal for a change. An upper level trough will deepen over the mountain west over the next 48 hours spreading strong height falls across the plains on Thursday into Friday. In response surface low pressure will develop and rapidly deepen…likely becoming a blizzard over the northern plains and upper Midwest on Friday. On the backside of this system cold air will surge southward down the plains and into TX Thursday and off the coast Friday.

Quality of moisture return ahead of the incoming front is modest at best and the main forcing (lift) for rainfall will be located well north of the region. Current thinking is that strong frontal lift will help to overcome lack of dynamics aloft, but meager amounts of moisture will likely only result in a line of showers with maybe an isolated thunderstorm. Rainfall amounts should average less than .50 of an inch across the region given the overall general lack of support for rainfall and the progressive nature of the system.

Bigger story will be the fairly impressive cool down compared to the near record highs of late. Dewpoints falling into the 30’s and 40’s certainly look possible by Friday evening as strong cold air advection onsets with gusty NW winds. Temperatures will fall into the 50’s by early Friday evening and on into the 40’s by Saturday morning with wind staying up…so it will feel cold. Coldest morning will be Sunday under clear skies and light winds with many areas falling well into the 40’s and maybe the upper 30’s. Highs on Sunday will only reach the lower 60’s…or about 10 degrees below average.

Warm up begins on Monday as surface high moves eastward and winds return to the E and SE over the region. May have to watch for smoke/haze from SE US wildfires to attempt to spread westward on the backside of the high pressure ridge early next week. The same strong front will clear the SE US this weekend and without any expected rainfall…extreme to critical fire weather behavior is likely in the areas where fires are already burning out of control.

Next front may approach the area around Thanksgiving Day or on “Black Friday”

Tropics:

An area of low pressure has developed in the SW Caribbean Sea over the last 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in both organization and coverage and model support for the formation of a tropical cyclone is very high…especially with the ECMWF model. Overall conditions are favorable for the system to slowly develop and NHC is giving an 80% chance of development over the next 5 days…likely toward the end of the week into the weekend. The system will remain nearly stationary or drift N to NNE over the next 5 days. While rare, the SW Caribbean, can still produce hurricanes in November.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Near record/record high temperatures today and Thursday come to an abrupt end Friday.

Dry air mass in place overnight has led to temperatures falling well into the 50’s this morning. Just above the surface SW winds and temperatures near 70 will quickly mix down to the surface within a few hours of sunrise. Looking to hit 80+ at all locations this afternoon with some locations up to 85 which is the record for today. Moisture begins to increase later this afternoon and into Thursday ahead of a strong frontal passage expected on Friday.

Strong trough will begin to overspread the western high plains today forcing surface low pressure over the front range of the Rockies which will move NNE toward the Midwest Thursday into Friday while developing into a blizzard. Cold air mass over southern Canada will be dislodged and sent southward down the western high plains and rapidly into TX late Thursday. Front will roar off the TX coast around midday Friday. Latest guidance is starting to show a more define short wave with good timing with the frontal lift to help overcome meager dynamics Friday morning. GFS is most robust with rainfall and QPF and hits our northern counties hard to 2.0 inches or so…while the rest of the models are much less bullish. Think the best course of action is to lean toward the drier solutions, but if the short range models trend toward the GFS more confidence in a widespread wetting rainfall with the front would then be expected and QPF totals would need to be bumped up from .25-.50 of an inch into the .5-1.5 inches.

Big story will be the onset of strong cold air advection late Friday morning behind the front. Expect temperatures in the low to mid 70’s ahead of the boundary to fall quickly into the 60’s and even upper 50’s during the afternoon hours as the cold air mass sweeps into the region. Gusty NW winds of 15-25mph will make it feel even colder along with the fact that it has been incredibly warm thus far this fall.

Next item is how cold it will get Saturday night into Sunday morning. This looks to be the coldest morning as Saturday will still feature building high pressure and gusty winds to level to lows in the 40’s. However Sunday morning the sprawling surface high will be directly overhead with calm winds and clear skies and expect temperatures to fall into the lower 40’s and upper 30’s over the region. Could certainly be some frost Sunday morning from College Station to Lufkin and around the normal cold Conroe. It is interesting that the raw GFS output bottoms Conroe out at 33 with a dewpoint of 31 Sunday morning…so we could be within a couple degrees of freezing in the normally cold and sheltered locations, but a widespread freeze is not expected at this point.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 161131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
531 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016

.AVIATION...
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING
SSE AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING AND ON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND VFR AT MOST SITES TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT OUR RURAL SPOTS BEFORE SUNRISE. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The now familiar warmth continues through the midweek, but as has
been advertised for some time now, a Friday cold front will put
that warmth to an end for the weekend. Next week, we should see
a warming trend until another midweek front repeats our weekend
performance.

Today through Thursday night...
Believe it or not, a weak cold front managed to sag through the
area today. Despite that, Galveston still set a record high
temperature. Rather than usher in a notably cooler airmass,
mesoanalysis shows that it`s been low level moisture that`s been
dropping behind the boundary. This should allow for chillier low
temperatures than Monday night. Though calm winds look to become
onshore around sunrise, that`s likely much too late for moisture
to recover and encourage much fog development. Still, it wouldn`t
be a surprise for spots known to fog most readily (particularly
near the coast) to fog up a touch. Despite the cooler start, still
look for temperatures today to be roughly as warm as yesterday. By
Wednesday night, moisture will have recovered enough for warmer
lows and better fog potential. Winds look modestly stronger, which
could mitigate the situation some, but have at least started with
an attempt at some fog in the weather grids. Thursday looks like
more of the same.

Friday...
The timing of the frontal passage continues to inch upwards -
indeed, in the guidance, the GFS is now a touch faster than the
Euro, arriving in our northwestern zones Friday morning. As such,
the timing of the forecast is a bit more confident in a passage
through the morning now. The GFS also has a more potent
precipitation solution, likely associated with a shortwave trough
rounding through in just the right place and just the right time
to enhance frontal showers and storms. Though this doesn`t show
up in other guidance, the Euro and NAM at least hint at the
presence of this impulse, so I bit some into higher precip totals.
Didn`t go all the way with the GFS, which puts 2 inch totals north
of the Houston metro, but now range from two tenths to half an
inch of rain. It would be interesting to see how convection
allowing guidance handles this, but even the Texas Tech WRF stops
just short of the most interesting time right now. As usual,
localized spots underneath the most intense cores of
showers/storms will see more.

Friday night and the weekend...
With greater confidence in the quicker timing, now clear things
out more quickly Friday evening/night. Behind the front, winds
just off the deck suggest gusty conditions over the waters (see
Marine section) and immediate coastal areas, but less so farther
inland. Given the strong surge of very dry low level air in the
guidance, have collaborated with all the neighbors to undercut
temps and dewpoints, and undercut the model consensus on the surge
of colder air, as well as for lows Saturday night into Sunday as
high pressure quickly sets up overhead with clear skies and light
winds. There would be more confidence if there was a greater area
of snow cover to our north to mitigate modification of the
airmass, but still feel good enough about it to go along for the
relatively modest undercutting of the guidance that we`ve made. I`ve
spent too many nights chasing lows in the Wisconsin Northwoods in
a similar situation this time of year. Discussion for this period
focuses on nighttime conditions, as there isn`t much to say about
the daytime. Clear skies, temperatures that are noticeably but not
dramatically below normal...all in all, what should be a great
weekend to get out and do stuff.

Next week...
A 588 dam ridge looks to build over South Texas late in the
weekend, and as a surface high moves eastward, onshore flow should
resume. This sets the stage for warming into the 70s early next
week, as well as some partly cloudy skies. The next weathermaker
looks to arrive in the form of another front in the midweek -
bringing another chance of rain. But, at least at this time, not
quite the same impacts to temperatures. Worth mentioning, though,
that the Euro could signal a more significant hit to temps if its
post-frontal airmass surges farther west than currently shown.

Luchs

MARINE...
Light southeast winds return to the area today as high pressure
moves off to the east. This onshore flow strengthens and seas
begin to build tonight through Thursday night under a tightening
pressure gradient in response to deepening low pressure in the lee
of the Rockies. Caution flags are anticipated (mainly just for the
offshore waters) beginning Thursday afternoon or evening. Still
anticipating weakening winds and lowering seas on Friday in advance
of an approaching cold front. This strong front should cross the
coast late Friday afternoon or early Friday evening with strong
north winds developing in its wake. Small craft advisories will be
needed behind the front for building seas and the strengthening
winds, and some of the wind gusts could approach gale force. North
to northeast winds will begin to relax and seas will begin to come
down Saturday night as high pressure builds into the area. Onshore
winds return to the area on Monday.

The strengthening onshore flow coupled with an astronomically high
tide will bring elevated water levels toward the coast today and
Thursday, but water levels are expected to remain at or below 3 feet.
42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 60 82 64 72 / 0 0 10 20 50
Houston (IAH) 84 62 84 68 76 / 0 0 10 10 60
Galveston (GLS) 78 69 80 72 77 / 0 0 10 10 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...42

[cperk]

Any thoughts on our weather for the Thanksgiving holidays.

[srainhoutx]

Any thoughts on our weather for the Thanksgiving holidays.

The overnight GFS suggests a weak front stalls near SE Texas next Wednesday with a chance of showers Thanksgiving. The GFS does indicate perhaps a bit stronger front and shortwave moving across Texas a week from Friday into Saturday with a chance of possibly a stronger storm or two. But that is still too far out to know with any certainty.

It does look like to front tomorrow will be the strongest of the Fall season to date and I would not be surprised to see reports of scattered frost across our Northern Areas if the wind completely relaxes Saturday night.

[DoctorMu]

Yep. GFS still has the front hovering between CLL and HOU for Thanksgiving. Modest chance of showers and highs in the low 70s for IAH. A little wetter than yesterday's forecast. We'll see.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 171338
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
738 AM CST Thu Nov 17 2016

.UPDATE...
Another change to the dense fog advisory, as observations at
Brenham are at one quarter mile visibility. Webcams from the area
are essentially a whiteout, so expansion of the advisory to
Washington County is necessary. With conditions slowly improving
to the south, will continue to hold to 9am as the end time for the
time being.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST Thu Nov 17 2016/

UPDATE...
Visibilities have trended sharply upwards near the coast, and so
have let the bottom two tiers of counties go from the dense fog
advisory. 11-3.9 um imagery and the HRRR suggest some northward
drift in the dense fog, and will be keeping a watchful eye on
Washington and Burleson counties for potential expansion before
expiry. Dense fog is also being reported at the very fringes of
Harris and Liberty counties, but is probably not widespread enough
to justify addition at this time. In the Houston metro
particularly, webcams have been helpful in pinpointing the limited
extent of the dense fog. Still, will also be keeping a close eye
on obs and cams in those areas to ensure conditions do not degrade
in the next few hours before fog dissipates.

AVIATION...
Low cloud and fog areas are spotty early this morning, but general
trend on area obs is for improving conditions. Any MVFR/IFR
locations will improve after sunrise as south winds begin to
increase, then mostly VFR into the afternoon and early evening hours
with south winds generally running 8 to 12 knots. Weakening winds
tonight and increasing moisture could allow for another round of low
clouds and fog, but not confident enough at this time to include in
the TAFs. Think tomorrow`s SHRA/TSRA and associated wind shift to
the NNW and N with the strong cold front will hold off until
around/after 18/15z north (CLL and UTS) and 18/18Z at remain sites
to the south. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST Thu Nov 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Immediate forecast issue is on dense fog developing in the area.
Many locations in the advisory area are reporting one quarter mile
or worse visibility. Some locally dense fog may be creeping into
Liberty County, but obs and webcams show Harris County remains
free and clear. For now, will leave the advisory area unchanged,
but will have a hair trigger on Harris and Liberty.

After this morning, focus turns to the big story of the forecast
period - the frontal passage set to occur Friday. This will bring
both rain along the front, to be followed by breezy conditions
Saturday morning and a cooler, drier airmass for the weekend.

Rest of tonight through Thursday...
Light winds and clear skies have allowed fog to develop across
the area, and necessitated a dense fog advisory - mainly
west/southwest of the Houston metro. As discussed above,
conditions will be monitored closely in case any expansion is
needed. The fog should dissipate in the mid- morning, and from
there, one last nice - if unseasonably warm - day is ahead. There
are indications in multiple models that a pre-frontal trough will
move into SE Texas, and have introduced some very low PoPs,
generally similar to the TTU WRF, for the nighttime hours.

Friday through Saturday morning...
The cold front should move in from the northwest towards mid-day,
and by evening looks to reach the coast. Some concern that a
scenario in which a pre-frontal trough comes in early that
convergence will be decreased for convection with the main front.
However, there`s enough moisture and this seems a stout enough
front to have the confidence for some likely PoPs through the
center of the area this afternoon. Would expect to see some
lightning, as most guidance manages to build 1000 j/kg of MLCAPE
(or more). Deep layer shear is not so impressive, and while
hodographs show a generally favorable shape, the details are a bit
of a mess. As a result, severe weather is not really anticipated.

Behind the front, expect northwest winds to pick up with a surge
of colder, drier air. Not only does a small craft advisory seem
likely, but an occasional gust to around gale force may occur (for
more on this, see marine section below). Along with that, a wind
advisory for the immediate coast might be needed as well. Inland,
winds do not look to be quite so big a concern. However, low
temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning in our north and
northwest look to fall into the lower 40s as the colder air shoves
in.

Saturday afternoon and beyond...
Clouds should clear out quickly, with fair skies for the weekend.
The cold airmass takes hold, with highs in the lower to middle 60s
on Saturday, bumping up into the middle to upper 60s Sunday. With
high pressure/ridging in place throughout the column and very dry
air in place Saturday night, we could see some very chilly temps
overnight. Nobody should drop below freezing, but cold spots may
drop into the middle 30s. Onshore flow at the surface looks to
return Sunday night, and rising dewpoints should keep temperatures
from crashing quite as far Sunday night. Still, would expect
another night of below normal lows.

While the upper ridge moves eastward overhead into the early week
and with onshore flow, there should be gradual warming to near or
even above normal temperatures for the first part of the week.
However, the pattern is pretty progressive, and by midweek, we
should be looking for another frontal passage. Tough to parse out
details for now, as the Euro continues to bring in a stronger (but
filling/lifting) trough, while the GFS has the ridge hold a bit
tighter, glancing a weaker trough up to the Great Lakes. Given
that neither the deterministic nor ensemble guidance suggest it,
there is a fair amount of confidence that the impacts of this
front will not match those of the earlier front.

Luchs

MARINE...
Onshore winds are strengthening (already 16 knots at Buoy
42019), so have gone ahead and hoisted caution flags for
our 20-60 nm waters. Wind speeds should hover in a 15-20
knot range through early Friday morning. At that time,
winds should come down a little ahead of a strong cold
front that will move off the coast late Friday afternoon
or early Friday evening. Strong north winds (with gusts
possibly reaching gale force) and rough seas can be expected
Friday night through Saturday morning behind the front as
strong high pressure builds into the area. Conditions
should improve Saturday night and on into Sunday. Onshore
winds return on Sunday night and Monday as the high moves
off to the east. Another cold front (not as strong as the
one this weekend) is expected around mid week. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 65 73 44 62 / 0 10 50 0 0
Houston (IAH) 82 68 80 47 64 / 0 10 70 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 79 72 80 54 63 / 0 10 50 40 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Austin...Colorado...Montgomery...Waller...Washington.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...25

[Katdaddy]

The well advertised cold front is moving across TX this morning with a line of showers and thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected with the front. The front will move across the Houston-Galveston areas during the afternoon and evening bringing gusty N winds and much cooler drier air.

[srainhoutx]

Still some uncertainty regarding the Thanksgiving Day sensible weather forecast. Currently it appears a frontal boundary slowly crosses Texas next Wednesday offering cooler and drier weather next Thursday. We will fine tune the weather outlook as we get a bit closer.

I am beginning to see some changes in the longer range as we begin December. It appears a very complex blocking pattern may develop and possibly bring much colder air across the Great Plains and the Eastern US possibly including Texas and our local Region. If this blocking signature is legitimate, that 'stepping down' process of a series of progressively stronger cold fronts may be possible. We will save those longer range prognostications for a new December Topic in the days ahead...