First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

[Andrew]

Looks like Wxman is going to be close again (assuming the December 9th date occurs like predicted).

[tireman4]

Hang on..hang on...I am still in play with the 9th..

[A.V.]

Just watch, Houston will be frostless. If not at Bush, then definitely at Hobby.

[StormOne]

Just watch, Houston will be frostless. If not at Bush, then definitely at Hobby.

Not so fast my friend. This Winter could be an interesting one. Already has been up here- Negatives possible Saturday night with dangerous wind chills. The month of December is not the only cold month, January and February are typically the "cold season" as well.

[A.V.]

Just watch, Houston will be frostless. If not at Bush, then definitely at Hobby.

Not so fast my friend. This Winter could be an interesting one. Already has been up here- Negatives possible Saturday night with dangerous wind chills. The month of December is not the only cold month, January and February are typically the "cold season" as well.

No, see, these arctic fronts can come in with these cold days and blustery winds, no doubt... but the low temperatures just don't bottom out much. I've seen it time and time again; they call for a freeze, only for temperatures to be only in the lower 40s. They just don't take into account the oceanic return flow that often finds its way into SE Texas after a cold front (either from the Gulf or the E-Pac); this return flow generates the high clouds that trap heat, and hold temps steady. Like with this Saturday's front... lets say temps truly do top out in the mid 40s (which I feel is a bit overdone). Watch the lows then be around 38-39F, instead of close to freezing, due to the aspects described above.

December-February provides a window for cold, but the likelihood varies:

- February, basically, is a spring month in Houston; the only true reliable window for cold is during the early part of the month.

- December mostly starts out warm, and cold patterns usually come into play around the Winter solstice or so; the cold this year is a bit earlier than it has been in previous years.

- January is the only month that is solidly is within the window for cold in Houston... and even then, you can see that past the first week/half of the month, the worst of winter tends to have passed for the city. Thus, if the city hasn't had a freeze by that time, the chances of such temperature decrease exponentially for the season:
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/ ... a-20141112

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Just watch, Houston will be frostless. If not at Bush, then definitely at Hobby.

Not so fast my friend. This Winter could be an interesting one. Already has been up here- Negatives possible Saturday night with dangerous wind chills. The month of December is not the only cold month, January and February are typically the "cold season" as well.

No, see, these arctic fronts can come in with these cold days and blustery winds, no doubt... but the low temperatures just don't bottom out much. I've seen it time and time again; they call for a freeze, only for temperatures to be only in the lower 40s. They just don't take into account the oceanic return flow that often finds its way into SE Texas after a cold front (either from the Gulf or the E-Pac); this return flow generates the high clouds that trap heat, and hold temps steady. Like with this Saturday's front... lets say temps truly do top out in the mid 40s (which I feel is a bit overdone). Watch the lows then be around 38-39F, instead of close to freezing, due to the aspects described above.

December-February provides a window for cold, but the likelihood varies:

- February, basically, is a spring month in Houston; the only true reliable window for cold is during the early part of the month.
- December mostly starts out warm, and cold patterns usually come into play around the Winter solstice or so; the cold this year is a bit earlier than it has been in previous years.

- January is the only month that is solidly is within the window for cold in Houston... and even then, you can see that past the first week/half of the month, the worst of winter tends to have passed for the city. Thus, if the city hasn't had a freeze by that time, the chances of such temperature decrease exponentially for the season:
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/ ... a-20141112

Sigh.... The bolded above couldn't be any further from the truth. Our coldest and most wintry month is February. Heck, March has even brought Winter weather to us a few times in the last decade.

[StormOne]

Just watch, Houston will be frostless. If not at Bush, then definitely at Hobby.

Not so fast my friend. This Winter could be an interesting one. Already has been up here- Negatives possible Saturday night with dangerous wind chills. The month of December is not the only cold month, January and February are typically the "cold season" as well.

No, see, these arctic fronts can come in with these cold days and blustery winds, no doubt... but the low temperatures just don't bottom out much. I've seen it time and time again; they call for a freeze, only for temperatures to be only in the lower 40s. They just don't take into account the oceanic return flow that often finds its way into SE Texas after a cold front (either from the Gulf or the E-Pac); this return flow generates the high clouds that trap heat, and hold temps steady. Like with this Saturday's front... lets say temps truly do top out in the mid 40s (which I feel is a bit overdone). Watch the lows then be around 38-39F, instead of close to freezing, due to the aspects described above.

December-February provides a window for cold, but the likelihood varies:

- February, basically, is a spring month in Houston; the only true reliable window for cold is during the early part of the month.

- December mostly starts out warm, and cold patterns usually come into play around the Winter solstice or so; the cold this year is a bit earlier than it has been in previous years.

- January is the only month that is solidly is within the window for cold in Houston... and even then, you can see that past the first week/half of the month, the worst of winter tends to have passed for the city. Thus, if the city hasn't had a freeze by that time, the chances of such temperature decrease exponentially for the season:
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/ ... a-20141112

There are also many times where upper 30s look likely then a freeze happens. Montgomery stated what I was gonna say about the February statement, so I'll ignore that.

A freeze will happen in December. This Winter is just too juicy for a freeze to not happen down there now. Heck, this is bringing us wind chills of -30 tomorrow. Just because we had one continentally warm Winter last year doesn't mean that's the way it is from here on out. Most of the country, even the West Coast, is seeing below normal temperatures. It's time SE TX gets its fair share, and that should start tomorrow night.

[A.V.]

Sigh.... The bolded above couldn't be any further from the truth. Our coldest and most wintry month is February.

The map I posted above, along with the weather average charts, show how off you are with this post. January (first half of the month) is clearly the coldest, most wintry time of the season. February, on the other hand, is the warmest on average for all the winter months (and has the lowest occurrence of freezes, and warmest average absolute minima), and, for all intents and purposes, is a spring month.

Heck, March has even brought Winter weather to us a few times in the last decade.

Average last frost for Houston ranges from early-mid February; at the same time, considering that mid January is the average coldest point of the year, the chances of seeing a freeze for the season, if freezing temps haven't already been reached, is quite slim.

So, like I said, January is the only winter month that is solidly within the window for cold in Houston. Only the early and latter portions of February and December (respectively) are solidly in the reliable cold window; outside of those ranges (like with the month of March), the chance is too slim to be reliable.

There are also many times where upper 30s look likely then a freeze happens. Montgomery stated what I was gonna say about the February statement, so I'll ignore that.

Less common than the opposite, from my experience.

A freeze will happen in December. This Winter is just too juicy for a freeze to not happen down there now. Heck, this is bringing us wind chills of -30 tomorrow. Just because we had one continentally warm Winter last year doesn't mean that's the way it is from here on out. Most of the country, even the West Coast, is seeing below normal temperatures. It's time SE TX gets its fair share, and that should start tomorrow night.

Well, I'll believe it when I see it.

[StormOne]

Well, I'll believe it when I see it.

Good god. Last Winter is the first time in IAH's existence that a freeze was not recorded. Once again, last Winter was warm across our entire continent. This Winter is already producing better numbers than last Winter, and we are not technically even in the Winter season yet. Just because Houston was freeze-less last year, doesn't mean Houston will never see a freeze again. Freezes not happening until after Christmas is not necessarily "rare" for Houston.

[A.V.]

Good god. Last Winter is the first time in IAH's existence that a freeze was not recorded. Once again, last Winter was warm across our entire continent.

Actually, IAH recorded two freezes during Jan 2016; however, temps were no lower than 32F. Houston Hobby, on the other hand, was frost-less (and it wasn't the first time).

Last winter saw some pretty cold temps for the Eastern US (especially the Northeast); Texas just happened to avoid the brunt of the blasts.

This Winter is already producing better numbers than last Winter, and we are not technically even in the Winter season yet.

I thought it was established that astronomical winter ≠ meteorological winter. Even at that, the December has been colder than normal thus far (meaning it isn't a December that has a high chance of happening). Forecasts show a more zonal flow taking place for January across the US; if that lasts beyond the first half of the month, then one can say with confidence that Houston will not see a freeze for the winter season (based on what I've shown with my map).

Just because Houston was freeze-less last year, doesn't mean Houston will never see a freeze again. Freezes not happening until after Christmas is not necessarily "rare" for Houston.

I see that the climate is becoming less and less supportive of true cold, meaning a return to how the climate naturally should be for the latitude. Florida is the state first experiencing the effects, and it will soon spread across the entire Southern US. USDA hardiness zones are getting warmer and warmer across the South:
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/sites/r ... -31-hi.jpg

Overall, cold-lovers are lucky that the North American continent has such peculiar geography (nothing to block cold air moving south); all it takes is an east-west mountain, or a moderating water body where the plains are, or even a permanent SE ridge, and then Houston (and the rest of the coastal South) would basically be having tropical climates.

[StormOne]

Overall, cold-lovers are lucky that the North American continent has such peculiar geography (nothing to block cold air moving south); all it takes is an east-west mountain, or a moderating water body where the plains are, or even a permanent SE ridge, and then Houston (and the rest of the coastal South) would basically be having tropical climates.

Good thing every one of those scenarios are literally impossible!

[A.V.]

Good thing every one of those scenarios are literally impossible!

No, the SE ridge can indeed become permanent over Texas and the entire South. And a geographic barrier in the plains can always be built:
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/a-phys ... he-midwest

[A.V.]

#arcticfail

[StormOne]

#arcticfail

Not so fast

[Ounce]

Three people have successfully picked Dec 11-Dec 20 as the First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016.

The NWS at IAH reported 32 degrees at 12:53 a.m., this morning. In fact, at 6:53 a.m. it was 30 degrees.

Sunday at 8:53 a.m., the NWS reported 34 as the morning's low, so I wouldn't be surprised for today's 30 degrees to slip a little more. Sunday's low temperature was 33 degrees at 11:53 p.m.

[A.V.]

Not so fast

Still a fail. This arctic mass, which brought intense, record breaking cold to the Midwest (once in a lifetime), and was basically a direct shot into Texas, could barely drop Houston to freezing levels; Galveston, Lake Jackson, etc still remain without a freeze. Once December passes, the axis of cold shifts east, and the arctic blasts won't be Texas centered. On top of that, a warm pattern commences. Thus, this looks like it will be the last cold blast of this caliber for the season. Even with this cold, temps still haven't been below 30F; Houston is about to have another zone 10 winter.

[srainhoutx]

Not so fast

Still a fail. This arctic mass, which brought intense, record breaking cold to the Midwest (once in a lifetime), and was basically a direct shot into Texas, could barely drop Houston to freezing levels; Galveston, Lake Jackson, etc still remain without a freeze. Once December passes, the axis of cold shifts east, and the arctic blasts won't be Texas centered. On top of that, a warm pattern commences. Thus, this looks like it will be the last cold blast of this caliber for the season. Even with this cold, temps still haven't been below 30F; Houston is about to have another zone 10 winter.

Complete hogwash and you've been trolling other venues with this exact assumption. We can no way determine what the sensible weather will bring beyond 3-5 days and it is foolhardy to assume that before SE Texas enters our most climatological favored period of January into February what the forecast may hold.

Code: Select all

Weather Research Center 


Houston Ice Storms [1960-2011] 

YEAR DATE REMARKS 
1961 January 25 Freezing Rain/Glazing 
1965 February 24 Glaze 
1968 January 8 Glaze 
1970 January 18-19 Glaze 
1971 January 7-8 Glaze 
1973 January 9-12 Glaze 
1973 February 8-9 Glaze 
1976 November 28-29 Glaze 
1977 January 2  Glaze 
1978 January 21-22 Glaze 
1982 January 12-14 Glaze 
1983 December 22-23 Glaze 
1983 December 26 Glaze 
1985 January 3 Glaze 
1985 January 12-13 Glaze 
1985 January 31 - February 1 Glaze 
1988 February 11 Glaze 
1989 February 4-8 Glaze 
1989 December 22 Glaze 
1990 December 22-23 Glaze 
1994 February 8-9 Glaze 
1997 January 12-14 Glaze 
2007 January 16-17 Freezing Rain/Glaze 
2011 February 4 Freezing Rain/Glaze 
Weather Research Center
5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004
 (713) 529-3076

Code: Select all

Houston Snow
 
YEAR DATE Inches 
1895 February 14-15 20  
1912 January 12 0.1 
1918 January 11 0.2 
1925 December 28 0.4 
1926 January 26 0.8 
1929 December 21-22 2.5 
1932 March 10-11 0.8 
1940 January 22 3.0 
1944 December 10 Trace 
1949 January 30 2.6 
1958 February 12  Trace 
1960 February 12 4.4 
1961 January 25 Trace 
1961 December 13 Trace 
1963 January 14 Trace 
1963 February 12 Trace 
1964 February 21 Trace 
1973 January 11 2.0 
1973 February 9-10 1.4 
1973 February 17-18 1.4 
1978 January 19-20 0.4 
1980 February 2 1.4 
1981 January 19 Trace 
1981 February 11 Trace 
1985 January 2 1.0 
1985 February 1 0.3 
1989 February 6 Trace 
1989 December 22 1.7 
1994 February 12 0.1 
1995 January 2 Trace 
1996 December 17 Trace 
2004 December 24 Trace 
2008 December 10 1.4" 
2009 December 4 1.0" 
2010 February 23 Trace" 
Weather Research Center
5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004
 (713) 529-3076

[A.V.]

Complete hogwash and you've been trolling other venues with this exact assumption. We can no way determine what the sensible weather will bring beyond 3-5 days and it is foolhardy to assume that before SE Texas enters our most climatological favored period of January into February what the forecast may hold.

Code: Select all

Weather Research Center 


Houston Ice Storms [1960-2011] 

YEAR DATE REMARKS 
1961 January 25 Freezing Rain/Glazing 
1965 February 24 Glaze 
1968 January 8 Glaze 
1970 January 18-19 Glaze 
1971 January 7-8 Glaze 
1973 January 9-12 Glaze 
1973 February 8-9 Glaze 
1976 November 28-29 Glaze 
1977 January 2  Glaze 
1978 January 21-22 Glaze 
1982 January 12-14 Glaze 
1983 December 22-23 Glaze 
1983 December 26 Glaze 
1985 January 3 Glaze 
1985 January 12-13 Glaze 
1985 January 31 - February 1 Glaze 
1988 February 11 Glaze 
1989 February 4-8 Glaze 
1989 December 22 Glaze 
1990 December 22-23 Glaze 
1994 February 8-9 Glaze 
1997 January 12-14 Glaze 
2007 January 16-17 Freezing Rain/Glaze 
2011 February 4 Freezing Rain/Glaze 
Weather Research Center
5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004
 (713) 529-3076

Code: Select all

Houston Snow
 
YEAR DATE Inches 
1895 February 14-15 20  
1912 January 12 0.1 
1918 January 11 0.2 
1925 December 28 0.4 
1926 January 26 0.8 
1929 December 21-22 2.5 
1932 March 10-11 0.8 
1940 January 22 3.0 
1944 December 10 Trace 
1949 January 30 2.6 
1958 February 12  Trace 
1960 February 12 4.4 
1961 January 25 Trace 
1961 December 13 Trace 
1963 January 14 Trace 
1963 February 12 Trace 
1964 February 21 Trace 
1973 January 11 2.0 
1973 February 9-10 1.4 
1973 February 17-18 1.4 
1978 January 19-20 0.4 
1980 February 2 1.4 
1981 January 19 Trace 
1981 February 11 Trace 
1985 January 2 1.0 
1985 February 1 0.3 
1989 February 6 Trace 
1989 December 22 1.7 
1994 February 12 0.1 
1995 January 2 Trace 
1996 December 17 Trace 
2004 December 24 Trace 
2008 December 10 1.4" 
2009 December 4 1.0" 
2010 February 23 Trace" 
Weather Research Center
5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004
 (713) 529-3076

Go back through this thread, and look at the map I posted. On average, cold temps tend to be focused eastward in the US by January, whereas most of Texas has been through the coldest by December. Occurences of winter precip in certain years does not change that fact.

[A.V.]

The city is very large, so one corner may have had an ice storm, whereas another area just had cold rain. Furthermore, winter precip doesn't necessarily mean coldest temps. In Jan 2007, for instance, Hobby did not freeze for the entire month, and IAH only went down to 32F.

No temps at Hobby below 20F since the end of the 80s. Even this mega arctic blast still failed to bring temps below 32F. The climate is becoming milder and milder.

[A.V.]

I post again this fantastic map, which shows the climate warming up:
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/sites/r ... -31-hi.jpg