October 2016- More Cool Weather?

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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Wash. Rinse. Repeat. ( I am hearing rumors of a pattern change and cold front next week). Our pro mets can chime in on that one ( Srain, Wxman 57, David, Blake, Brooks and Andrew)

000
FXUS64 KHGX 271127
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

12Z Aviation...Patches of fog around the area should dissipate
between 13 and 14Z. Possible to see brief MVFR fog at IAH, but it
is mainly occurring at the rural sites. NE winds this morning will
become SE late this afternoon generally in the 5 to 8 kt range
later today. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Patchy fog to prevail across much of SE TX this morning with some
areas possibly seeing dense fog by sunrise. Cirrus blow-off (from
overnight storms over NTX) moving out and with calm winds and low
(to no) T/Td spreads, we could see this development of fog become
more widespread. No advisory at this time, but cannot rule it out
a bit later this morning. A similar scenario progged for tonight/
tomorrow morning.

Otherwise not a lot of major changes with the overall forecast as
models keep things quiet/warm/dry. The upper level ridge out west
will continue to build this way the next day or so...before flat-
tening out across the Southern Plains over the weekend. Light ESE
winds at the surface will drive the deeper Gulf moisture into the
middle/lower TX coast...along with some isolated/widely scattered
SHRA. Persistence will feature heavily with temperature forecasts
with best (albeit low) POPs remaining over the coastal waters and
points over our far southwestern CWFA. Still preferring the ECMWF
in the extended forecasts - which is still pushing across a well-
defined upper trof/low into the state from the west by next Tues/
Weds. Will also have to begin keeping track (with trends) for the
next cold front, which is currently progged for next Fri
. 41

MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern U.S. will maintain an onshore flow
through the middle of next week. A long easterly fetch will lead to
a gradual increase in swells Friday and Saturday. The swells may
exceed 5 feet at times and an SCEC may be required over the weekend
and into early next week. The persistent fetch will also lead to an
increase in tide levels beginning as early as Saturday with an
additional slow increase in tide levels early next week. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 64 85 64 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 85 62 85 62 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 71 82 71 82 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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wxman57
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That stronger cold front around Nov. 6-7 looks like it will be a no-show. Enjoy the nice warm weather while it lasts, which may be well into November.
Cromagnum
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Looks like it may be time to consider moving. I've gotten to where I completely hate everything about the weather in Houston these days. 6 months of summer, 1-2 weeks of fall, 2-3 weeks of winter, and then a short spring isn't very exciting.
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Go to a place that makes you happy, Cromagnum!
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I will when I can. Gotta work where the jobs are at though, and being a chemist in Houston dictates a lot.
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tireman4
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Just an FYI, the record high for Halloween is 88, set in 2004 (it was bad..LOL) and the prognosticated high this year is 86. Something to monitor.
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jasons2k
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sau27 wrote:
jasons wrote:It does seem like our climate is getting warmer and drier. Permanently.
Although it is somewhat discouraging to have such a long dry/warm spell in October, we did just come off of both an extremely wet 18 month period and a summer where we had one of our latest first 90 degree days.

I'm not a climate change denier, and that isn't the discussion I meant to bring up. I just wanted to provide a bit of perspective.
It was extremely wet for most, but not in my neighborhood. Plus is was an El Nino anomaly in the middle of what seems like a never-ending drought. This may go on record as the longest multi-year drought in Texas history (another first).

Since I moved here in 2005, I could probably count on one hand the number of record lows we've had. Record highs are a common occurrence. Near-record highs (and record high-minimums) seem to be the 'new normal' for us. Further, it seems like a disproportionate number of record highs and record high-minimums have been since the late 90's.

Like you, I'm not trying to attribute this to a specific cause in this thread and start a climate change debate. But I am pointing out what I have observed, which it seems like a 'new normal' of hotter and drier weather in SE Texas.
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jasons2k
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tireman4 wrote:Just an FYI, the record high for Halloween is 88, set in 2004 (it was bad..LOL) and the prognosticated high this year is 86. Something to monitor.
Yet another record high...in this century. Seems like most record highs have been very recent.
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Cromagnum wrote:I will when I can. Gotta work where the jobs are at though, and being a chemist in Houston dictates a lot.
I feel your pain. I work in Medical Oncology - Technology Product Management. I'd move to Sarasota in a heartbeat if I could, but can't find a job like that down there, at least one that pays anywhere close to what I can make here. There's always retirement once the kids are grown, I suppose.
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tireman4
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HGX AFD:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 271723
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR for the rest of today and into tonight. Some patchy fog will
be possible tomorrow morning at the usual sites. Fog tomorrow
morning will probably be pretty similar to what was experienced
this morning. VFR conditions are expected tomorrow after the fog
clears out. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/

UPDATE...
No significant updates this morning...a minor moisture tweak
to bring AM dew points up to better fall in-line with current
obs. Isolated early day offshore showers while inland...mostly sunny
morning with afternoon cumulus development. Swath of regionally
dry air should mix afternoon dew points/RHs into the upper 50s F
to low 60s F/mid 30 to lower 40 percentile...respectively. Texas
will be under the influence of this near 590 dam western upper
ridge going into the weekend. Above normal temperatures (at both
extremes) and patchy morning fog (locally dense) will be the main
themes in subsequent days. 31
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tireman4
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Now for discussion purposes, it seems as though this Halloween will be dry ( October 2016 too), but last year....


We got 5.14 inches of rain ( it was soggy last year, chilly too) in Houston ( Bush). What does that mean? Nothing, probably. lol...
A.V.

jasons wrote:Like you, I'm not trying to attribute this to a specific cause in this thread and start a climate change debate. But I am pointing out what I have observed, which it seems like a 'new normal' of hotter and drier weather in SE Texas.
I read somewhere that springs, falls and winters have been getting drier (with warming temps for fall and winter), while summer is becoming wetter (both for frequency and for totals). If the summer trend hits critical point, that would mean 100F days become a thing of the past.
A.V.

jasons wrote:
tireman4 wrote:Just an FYI, the record high for Halloween is 88, set in 2004 (it was bad..LOL) and the prognosticated high this year is 86. Something to monitor.
Yet another record high...in this century. Seems like most record highs have been very recent.
They are; the hottest temps in the metro area's history came during the 2000s, with the summer of 2000 (hot all around the South), and then in 2011.
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Katdaddy
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A warm, mostly sunny, and more humid weekend on the way with slight rain chances and continued warm weather next week.
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tireman4
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HGX AFD:

00
FXUS64 KHGX 281204
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
704 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Have expanded the Dense Fog Advisory a little further north based
on observations and webcams. Have added Columbus/Austin/Waller
counties to the advisory through 9 am.
45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016/

AVIATION...
Patchy fog has impacted Angleton and Sugar Land this morning,
with visbilities bouncing between VLIFR and MVFR. Early morning
surface analysis shows the best surface moisture having pooled
along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor this morning and
expect majority of fog impacts to reside southwest of the Houston
terminals as a result. However, observational trends at Houston
IAH suggest that a brief window of MVFR fog is possible and have
included a TEMPO group through 13Z. Expect fog to dissipate
14-15Z, with VFR conditions and east to southeast winds less than
10 knots prevailing through this evening. Another round of fog is
expected for Southeast Texas terminals early Saturday morning as a
wave of moisture pushes inland off the Gulf with visibilities
dropping to MVFR to IFR and improving by mid-morning Saturday.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Short term concern is patchy dense fog mainly south of a Fulshear
to Pearland this morning. Patch shallow fog possible a little
further north but may not be dense. Webcams showing the patchy
nature of the fog in the advisory area and visibilities may be
lower than 1/4 mile at times. A few showers will also be possible
over the Gulf waters and nearing the Matagorda Bay region early
this morning.

WV imagery clearly showing the upper ridging over TX and an upper
low over the Gulf south of LA. The upper low will retrograde to
near the Lower TX coast by Saturday morning so this should keep
the moist inflows going across SETX and focus rain chances mainly
over the Gulf waters and possibly into the coastal counties.
Soundings look to have a decent warm subsidence inversion in
place so any spotty light precip should be in the form of
showers. With the upper ridge dominating the weather while
traversing TX expect temperatures to continue well above normal
through the weekend.

Halloween should be warm and humid with just a slight chance of
showers. Tuesday morning a surge of deeper moisture arrives and
rain chances will increase along with warmer mins/slightly cooler
max temps thanks to widespread cloud cover and 30-40 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms. PW values may approach
1.8-1.9" with the moisture gradually thinning on Wednesday as
ridging settling in to the east of the area begins to tap into
drier/recirculated air edges in from the east and northeast. Good
deal of uncertainty in the forecast beyond Tuesday with the fast
westerly flow across the Pacific and for that matter the northern
U.S. for now favoring the GFS about 60/40 over the ECMWF...digging
trough over the Eastern Seaboard could lead to drier weather again
by next Fri.
45

MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds will persist
through the weekend and into the upcoming week as surface ridging
maintains its influence over the central Gulf Coast states. Winds
may approach caution criteria at times, with the long east/southeast
fetch across the Gulf allowing waves for the offshore waters to
build into the 4 to 6 feet range by the end of the weekend.
Persistent onshore flow will also lead to a gradual increase in tide
levels through next week. Increasing moisture will result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms returning to the coastal waters
early to mid next week.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 63 87 63 87 / 10 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 86 64 86 64 87 / 10 0 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 73 83 73 82 / 10 0 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Austin...Brazoria...Colorado...Fort Bend...
Matagorda...Waller...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Marine...14
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DoctorMu
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A.V. wrote:
jasons wrote:
tireman4 wrote:Just an FYI, the record high for Halloween is 88, set in 2004 (it was bad..LOL) and the prognosticated high this year is 86. Something to monitor.
Yet another record high...in this century. Seems like most record highs have been very recent.
They are; the hottest temps in the metro area's history came during the 2000s, with the summer of 2000 (hot all around the South), and then in 2011.
Projections are for longer dry spells:

Image

Image

and reduction in soil moisture

Image

current trends

Image

Having lived for Texas for 25 years and tracking the weather I've noticed:

1. Warmer lows in the Spring, Summer, and early Fall

2. More extremes in rainfall: feast or famine

3. Drier soil overall

4. Spring tornado season nudging earlier
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Katdaddy
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A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for SE TX this Halloween morning. The first week of Nov will feel more like Summer than Fall. Well needed rain chances increase tomorrow and Wednesday followed by a front on Friday. Next weekend looks to be a little cooler and dry.
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BlueJay
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Enjoy this last day of October and Happy Halloween everyone!
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tireman4
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This Halloween will be a warm one. Progged at 86 for a high..77 by the time the Trick or Treaters hit the streets. The record high is 88 set back in 2004.


161
FXUS64 KHGX 311205 CCA
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
705 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016

.AVIATION...
Much like the past few mornings, the main concern for the 31/12Z
TAFs centers around fog at the Southeast Texas terminals this
morning.

Split channel satellite imager shows fog continuing to expand
northward of the Interstate 10 corridor, with visibilities ranging
from VFR to VLIFR as the fog spreads northward. VFR conditions at
Houston IAH and College Station now are expected to briefly drop
to IFR at IAH and VLIFR at CLL as fog spreads into the terminals
from the south and east. Expect conditions to improve back to VFR
15-17Z, with south to southeast winds 10 knots or less prevailing
at all terminals. Another round of fog development is possible
early Tuesday morning, with greatest potential for category
restrictions at the terminals north and west of Houston (CLL, UTS,
CXO, SGR, LBX).

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure over E TX/LA/MS dominating the weather with light
winds and mostly clear skies early this morning. Areas of
fog/dense fog forming mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor
but will likely expand northward through 7 am...faster expansion
west of the I-45 corridor. By 9-10 am expect the fog to have mixed
out and dissipate but with some scattered cloudiness remaining.
Another warm after on tap with highs in the mid 80s inland still
far above normal but not into the records. The ridge over the area
will be weakening and shifting east which will allow the deeper
moisture pooled over the Gulf to the east of the upper shear axis
near Brownsville to nose up into the Matagorda Bay region late
this afternoon which could lead to some isolated showers there.

Moisture will be on the increase across the region Tuesday morning
and will probably see another round of fog across the area. In
addition scattered showers transitioning over to showers and
thunderstorms by mid morning first near the coast then expanding
north over the area with heating (mainly west of I-45). Rain
chances continue on Wednesday mainly driven by daytime heating and
morning speed convergence near the coast. Elevated tide levels on
tap for the first half of the week. Thursday a cold front slowly
sags south through the state and prefrontal troughing may help to
lessen the rain chances with winds backing before the fropa early
Friday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday have a chance of seeing some
brief heavy downpours with slow moving storms but then by Thursday
coverage will probably be lower and amounts lighter.

1025-1030mb high builds into lower MS valley Friday through
Sunday and drier weather should return to SETX but with more
cloud cover so probably a smaller diurnal range over the west and
larger in the east with the greater dry air and lesser cloud
cover. The extended guidance starting to point toward an
interesting weather pattern for SETX Monday-Wednesday with a
vigorous upper low bowling balling into TX with the potential for
generous rainfall over the eastern half of TX or possibly focused
closer to the coast...maybe even some severe potential but of
course it is fall and the models haven`t been verifying well
beyond 144 hours. Stay tuned.

MARINE...
Generally easterly flow continues across the coastal waters early
this morning, but have begun to see winds across the offshore waters
begin to back more towards the northeast as a weak coastal trough
has developed off the Lower/Middle Texas coast. This coastal trough
will serve as a focus for isolated showers across the western waters
today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop
Tuesday through Thursday as deeper Gulf moisture and an upper level
disturbance approach the waters.

Marine hazards through late week will center around periods of
elevated seas and onshore winds resulting in caution flags as well
as rip current and tidal issues along beaches. Seas currently range
from 3 feet at Buoy 42035 to 5 feet at Buoy 42019 and expect seas
generally in the 2-5 ft range to persist through mid to late week as
onshore flow continues. Long period swells will continue to result
in an elevated risk for rip currents and elevated tides along the
Upper Texas coast, with tidal guidance showing levels rising into
the 3-3.3 foot range above MLLW at times of high tide later this
evening. This would result in minor overwash on Highway 87 at
Highway 124 on Bolivar Peninsula as well as minor beach flooding for
Gulf-facing beaches at times of high tide over the next few days. A
cold front looks to reach the northwest Gulf by the upcoming
weekend, allowing for decreasing waves and tides as it passes.

Huffman


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 67 84 69 82 / 0 0 30 20 40
Houston (IAH) 86 68 82 70 83 / 0 0 20 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 82 74 82 74 81 / 0 0 20 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...
Chambers...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...Grimes...
Harris...Houston...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...
Matagorda...Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14
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tireman4
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HGX AFD:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 311819
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
119 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will persist through the afternoon into this
evening. Water Vapor satellite loops show that moisture has been
on the rise along the coastal areas west of Houston and Galveston.
This may help to increase cloudiness over KGLS and KLBX tonight
and possible as far inland as KHOU, KIAH, and KSGR. The surface
ridge over Southeast Texas should continue in place tonight.
Outside of areas where any mid level cloudiness develops, do
expect conditions to become conducive once again for fog
development. If so, IFR to LIFR will be possible mainly between
10Z and 15Z. A model consensus has the fog development mainly from
the I-10 corridor inland -- KIAH, KCXO, KUTS, and KCLL -- with
KHOU and KSGR on the edge of possibility. Any fog and low ceilings
that do develop should lift by or shortly after 16Z on Tuesday.

40

&&
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