October 2016- More Cool Weather?

[jasons2k]

Ditto..ditto.....like a broken record:

Mid/upper level ridging then builds across the state from the west and southwest toward the middle to end of the week and on into the weekend. This feature will keep a majority of Southeast Texas on the dry side with steadily warming and unseasonably warm temperatures (lows in the lower to mid 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s...maybe even around 90 and possibly close to record highs).

[Ptarmigan]

Ditto..ditto.....like a broken record:

Mid/upper level ridging then builds across the state from the west and southwest toward the middle to end of the week and on into the weekend. This feature will keep a majority of Southeast Texas on the dry side with steadily warming and unseasonably warm temperatures (lows in the lower to mid 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s...maybe even around 90 and possibly close to record highs).

It is like summer.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner:

Upper air pattern remains one of stagnation across the southern plains and TX with upper level ridging in place.

Recent cold front late last week with surface high pressure over the eastern US will continue to bring a relatively dry air mass inland from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Upper level heights build slightly which will push afternoon temperatures into the mid and upper 80’s today into the weekend. Low level moisture remains shallow and expect no rain chances into the weekend. Region is starting to dry with latest US drought monitor showing drought conditions over the mid south developing westward toward eastern TX.

Could see a much more active pattern begin to take shape over the SW/S US by the middle of next week with rain chances starting to increase by late next week.

[Katdaddy]

Yesterday's upper level disturbance has pushed E of TX overnight. Lots of mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 80s for through the weekend as Summer weather continues during the last week of October. A warm and muggy Halloween 2016 on the way.

[tireman4]

Halloween will be toasty. I have only worn shorts once (2004) on Halloween ( trick or treating). It is looking like another.

552
FXUS64 KHGX 261711
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1211 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected to persist throughout the remainder of the day,
as upper level ridging continues to keep things dry. Winds should remain out
of the southeast, allowing for an increase low level moisture overnight and into tomorrow morning.
Therefore, this low level moisture, along with radiational cooling should allow for patchy fog
to form for the northern terminals tomorrow morning. Expecting VRF
conditions to prevail once the fog lifts, between 12-14z. 43/08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/

UPDATE...
Southwestern-based upper ridging will continue its eastward
expansion over the state. This will be the main reason for these
mainly clear and subsequently warmer week days.

Weak onshore flow has drawn slightly higher Gulf moisture inland.
Mainly clear afternoon skies will mix drier 700-950mb layer air
to the surface. This will translate to mid to upper 50F dew points
creating (inland) upper 30 to lower 40 percent afternoon humidities
/lower 50 coastal %RHs. Southeasterly breezes today will de-couple
overnight and wake up from the light east-southeast tomorrow. Nil
rain chances and slightly warmer today with middle 80 maximum
temperatures...an average 5 degrees above late October standards.
Overnight fog development over more rural open expanses or waterways
..locally dense...is likely again Thursday morning. 31

MARINE...
Easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail today with a slight
increase in winds arriving late Thursday through Saturday. A long
fetch will lead to a gradual increase in swells Friday and Saturday.
Rain chances may increase Friday and Saturday (mainly showers though
a thunderstorm can`t be ruled out) as a little richer pool of
moisture spreads westward across the Gulf.
45


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 86 63 87 63 / 0 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 61 86 61 87 62 / 0 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 69 82 71 82 71 / 10 10 10 10 10

[sambucol]

Maybe we will have another snow on Christmas Eve just like 2004!

[davidiowx]

Maybe we will have another snow on Christmas Eve just like 2004!

At this point and the way this outlook keeps getting warmer and warmer, there's a better change to win the lottery than for that to happen. LOL

[Katdaddy]

Beautiful skies Monday evening as we await the first blue norther. Guessing mid-Nov.

[jasons2k]

It does seem like our climate is getting warmer and drier. Permanently.

[sau27]

It does seem like our climate is getting warmer and drier. Permanently.

Although it is somewhat discouraging to have such a long dry/warm spell in October, we did just come off of both an extremely wet 18 month period and a summer where we had one of our latest first 90 degree days.

I'm not a climate change denier, and that isn't the discussion I meant to bring up. I just wanted to provide a bit of perspective.

[tireman4]

Wash. Rinse. Repeat. ( I am hearing rumors of a pattern change and cold front next week). Our pro mets can chime in on that one ( Srain, Wxman 57, David, Blake, Brooks and Andrew)

000
FXUS64 KHGX 271127
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

12Z Aviation...Patches of fog around the area should dissipate
between 13 and 14Z. Possible to see brief MVFR fog at IAH, but it
is mainly occurring at the rural sites. NE winds this morning will
become SE late this afternoon generally in the 5 to 8 kt range
later today. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Patchy fog to prevail across much of SE TX this morning with some
areas possibly seeing dense fog by sunrise. Cirrus blow-off (from
overnight storms over NTX) moving out and with calm winds and low
(to no) T/Td spreads, we could see this development of fog become
more widespread. No advisory at this time, but cannot rule it out
a bit later this morning. A similar scenario progged for tonight/
tomorrow morning.

Otherwise not a lot of major changes with the overall forecast as
models keep things quiet/warm/dry. The upper level ridge out west
will continue to build this way the next day or so...before flat-
tening out across the Southern Plains over the weekend. Light ESE
winds at the surface will drive the deeper Gulf moisture into the
middle/lower TX coast...along with some isolated/widely scattered
SHRA. Persistence will feature heavily with temperature forecasts
with best (albeit low) POPs remaining over the coastal waters and
points over our far southwestern CWFA. Still preferring the ECMWF
in the extended forecasts - which is still pushing across a well-
defined upper trof/low into the state from the west by next Tues/
Weds. Will also have to begin keeping track (with trends) for the
next cold front, which is currently progged for next Fri. 41

MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern U.S. will maintain an onshore flow
through the middle of next week. A long easterly fetch will lead to
a gradual increase in swells Friday and Saturday. The swells may
exceed 5 feet at times and an SCEC may be required over the weekend
and into early next week. The persistent fetch will also lead to an
increase in tide levels beginning as early as Saturday with an
additional slow increase in tide levels early next week. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 64 85 64 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 85 62 85 62 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 71 82 71 82 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[wxman57]

That stronger cold front around Nov. 6-7 looks like it will be a no-show. Enjoy the nice warm weather while it lasts, which may be well into November.

[Cromagnum]

Looks like it may be time to consider moving. I've gotten to where I completely hate everything about the weather in Houston these days. 6 months of summer, 1-2 weeks of fall, 2-3 weeks of winter, and then a short spring isn't very exciting.

[BlueJay]

Go to a place that makes you happy, Cromagnum!

[Cromagnum]

I will when I can. Gotta work where the jobs are at though, and being a chemist in Houston dictates a lot.

[tireman4]

Just an FYI, the record high for Halloween is 88, set in 2004 (it was bad..LOL) and the prognosticated high this year is 86. Something to monitor.

[jasons2k]

It does seem like our climate is getting warmer and drier. Permanently.

Although it is somewhat discouraging to have such a long dry/warm spell in October, we did just come off of both an extremely wet 18 month period and a summer where we had one of our latest first 90 degree days.

I'm not a climate change denier, and that isn't the discussion I meant to bring up. I just wanted to provide a bit of perspective.

It was extremely wet for most, but not in my neighborhood. Plus is was an El Nino anomaly in the middle of what seems like a never-ending drought. This may go on record as the longest multi-year drought in Texas history (another first).

Since I moved here in 2005, I could probably count on one hand the number of record lows we've had. Record highs are a common occurrence. Near-record highs (and record high-minimums) seem to be the 'new normal' for us. Further, it seems like a disproportionate number of record highs and record high-minimums have been since the late 90's.

Like you, I'm not trying to attribute this to a specific cause in this thread and start a climate change debate. But I am pointing out what I have observed, which it seems like a 'new normal' of hotter and drier weather in SE Texas.

[jasons2k]

Just an FYI, the record high for Halloween is 88, set in 2004 (it was bad..LOL) and the prognosticated high this year is 86. Something to monitor.

Yet another record high...in this century. Seems like most record highs have been very recent.

[jasons2k]

I will when I can. Gotta work where the jobs are at though, and being a chemist in Houston dictates a lot.

I feel your pain. I work in Medical Oncology - Technology Product Management. I'd move to Sarasota in a heartbeat if I could, but can't find a job like that down there, at least one that pays anywhere close to what I can make here. There's always retirement once the kids are grown, I suppose.

[tireman4]

HGX AFD:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 271723
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR for the rest of today and into tonight. Some patchy fog will
be possible tomorrow morning at the usual sites. Fog tomorrow
morning will probably be pretty similar to what was experienced
this morning. VFR conditions are expected tomorrow after the fog
clears out. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/

UPDATE...
No significant updates this morning...a minor moisture tweak
to bring AM dew points up to better fall in-line with current
obs. Isolated early day offshore showers while inland...mostly sunny
morning with afternoon cumulus development. Swath of regionally
dry air should mix afternoon dew points/RHs into the upper 50s F
to low 60s F/mid 30 to lower 40 percentile...respectively. Texas
will be under the influence of this near 590 dam western upper
ridge going into the weekend. Above normal temperatures (at both
extremes) and patchy morning fog (locally dense) will be the main
themes in subsequent days. 31