October 2016- More Cool Weather?

[Ounce]

Missed me! Not a drop! Perennial drought continues.

You must've signed up for the 4 times per year rain plan. Just don't turn into a worry wart.

[Andrew]

Looks like the cooler air is around Waco right now. Should be here between 9pm and midnight. It should be a cooler morning with temps in the upper 50s/lower 60s to wake up tomorrow.

[Cromagnum]

Did the cfront stall out? Originally it was supposed to blow through this morning, bilut it still sucks outside.

[srainhoutx]

Nice cool Northerly breezes filtering across NW Harris County. The front passed a couple of hours ago. Time to open the windows and let the drier and cooler air in.

[Katdaddy]

A very nice Fall morning with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s and gusty N winds along the coastal areas.

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
438 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2016

.STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
OVER THE BAYS THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

* SEAS...5 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

[Katdaddy]

A beautiful Fall morning with temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s with low 60s along the immediate cost. Enjoy!

[srainhoutx]

Recorded a chilly 47F at the house this morning. Hopefully we have seen the last of those 90's for highs until next Spring. Enjoy the nice Autumn Weather!

[Katdaddy]

An upper level disturbance passing across TX could bring a few sprinkles today. Mostly sunny and warm temps through the week. Some area will see highs near 90F by then end of the weekend and next weekend thanks to a building ridge of high pressure from MX.

[jasons2k]

Looks like I will close out October with 0.17" of rain.

[tireman4]

HGX AFD:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 240850
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
350 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Shortwave currently moving thru cntl Tx will make its way eastward
across SE Tx today. There are a few observation sites reporting
-ra where the highest reflectivities are located, but vast
majority is in the form of virga complements of dry llvls. Expect
the same locally. Otherwise just some mid/high level clouds and
daytime highs in the 80s.

Should see a trof move eastward from the Rockies into the plains
and midwest Tue and Wed. It should be a non-factor in our local
wx, but ridge will expand north and eastward out of Mexico and
into Tx in its wake. This ridge should be the dominant player in
area wx (or lack thereof) from midweek thru the weekend by
limiting overall rain chances. 47

&&

.MARINE...
With high pressure lingering just to our east, we should continue to
see generally light (to occasionally moderate) east (to occasionally
southeast) winds across the coastal waters the next several days. No
flags are anticipated. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
Radar indicating light echoes moving in from the SW across the north-
ern portions of the CWFA this morning, but not seeing a lot of signs
that any significant precipitation is making it to the ground so far
this morning. However may include a brief VCSH for CLL for this morn-
ing with the 12Z package. Otherwise not a lot of changes for the aft-
ernoon as VFR conditions prevail. Progs of a more easterly low-level
flow these next few days could keep dewpoints from climbing too much
and perhaps limit the development of patchy BR/lower CIGS during the
overnight hours. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 63 82 63 84 / 20 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 84 61 83 62 85 / 10 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 71 82 72 82 / 10 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[jasons2k]

Ditto..ditto.....like a broken record:

Mid/upper level ridging then builds across the state from the west and southwest toward the middle to end of the week and on into the weekend. This feature will keep a majority of Southeast Texas on the dry side with steadily warming and unseasonably warm temperatures (lows in the lower to mid 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s...maybe even around 90 and possibly close to record highs).

[Ptarmigan]

Ditto..ditto.....like a broken record:

Mid/upper level ridging then builds across the state from the west and southwest toward the middle to end of the week and on into the weekend. This feature will keep a majority of Southeast Texas on the dry side with steadily warming and unseasonably warm temperatures (lows in the lower to mid 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s...maybe even around 90 and possibly close to record highs).

It is like summer.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner:

Upper air pattern remains one of stagnation across the southern plains and TX with upper level ridging in place.

Recent cold front late last week with surface high pressure over the eastern US will continue to bring a relatively dry air mass inland from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Upper level heights build slightly which will push afternoon temperatures into the mid and upper 80’s today into the weekend. Low level moisture remains shallow and expect no rain chances into the weekend. Region is starting to dry with latest US drought monitor showing drought conditions over the mid south developing westward toward eastern TX.

Could see a much more active pattern begin to take shape over the SW/S US by the middle of next week with rain chances starting to increase by late next week.

[Katdaddy]

Yesterday's upper level disturbance has pushed E of TX overnight. Lots of mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 80s for through the weekend as Summer weather continues during the last week of October. A warm and muggy Halloween 2016 on the way.

[tireman4]

Halloween will be toasty. I have only worn shorts once (2004) on Halloween ( trick or treating). It is looking like another.

552
FXUS64 KHGX 261711
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1211 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected to persist throughout the remainder of the day,
as upper level ridging continues to keep things dry. Winds should remain out
of the southeast, allowing for an increase low level moisture overnight and into tomorrow morning.
Therefore, this low level moisture, along with radiational cooling should allow for patchy fog
to form for the northern terminals tomorrow morning. Expecting VRF
conditions to prevail once the fog lifts, between 12-14z. 43/08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/

UPDATE...
Southwestern-based upper ridging will continue its eastward
expansion over the state. This will be the main reason for these
mainly clear and subsequently warmer week days.

Weak onshore flow has drawn slightly higher Gulf moisture inland.
Mainly clear afternoon skies will mix drier 700-950mb layer air
to the surface. This will translate to mid to upper 50F dew points
creating (inland) upper 30 to lower 40 percent afternoon humidities
/lower 50 coastal %RHs. Southeasterly breezes today will de-couple
overnight and wake up from the light east-southeast tomorrow. Nil
rain chances and slightly warmer today with middle 80 maximum
temperatures...an average 5 degrees above late October standards.
Overnight fog development over more rural open expanses or waterways
..locally dense...is likely again Thursday morning. 31

MARINE...
Easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail today with a slight
increase in winds arriving late Thursday through Saturday. A long
fetch will lead to a gradual increase in swells Friday and Saturday.
Rain chances may increase Friday and Saturday (mainly showers though
a thunderstorm can`t be ruled out) as a little richer pool of
moisture spreads westward across the Gulf.
45


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 86 63 87 63 / 0 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 61 86 61 87 62 / 0 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 69 82 71 82 71 / 10 10 10 10 10

[sambucol]

Maybe we will have another snow on Christmas Eve just like 2004!

[davidiowx]

Maybe we will have another snow on Christmas Eve just like 2004!

At this point and the way this outlook keeps getting warmer and warmer, there's a better change to win the lottery than for that to happen. LOL

[Katdaddy]

Beautiful skies Monday evening as we await the first blue norther. Guessing mid-Nov.

[jasons2k]

It does seem like our climate is getting warmer and drier. Permanently.

[sau27]

It does seem like our climate is getting warmer and drier. Permanently.

Although it is somewhat discouraging to have such a long dry/warm spell in October, we did just come off of both an extremely wet 18 month period and a summer where we had one of our latest first 90 degree days.

I'm not a climate change denier, and that isn't the discussion I meant to bring up. I just wanted to provide a bit of perspective.