June Weather Discussion

[sleetstorm]

Are there any alterations during next month rainwise?

[wxdata]

30 Day Outlook for June (if you can believe the temperature outlook)

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like a cooler June for us.

[wxdata]

HPC's reason:

THE CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED IN PARTS OF TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INITIALLY HIGH VALUES OF SOIL MOISTURE. WET SOIL CONDITIONS HELP LOWER TEMPERATURES AND PROVIDE MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.

So basically they're expecting lower temps due to more clouds/rain because of an increase in MCS' (apparently.)

[Andrew]

HPC's reason:

THE CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED IN PARTS OF TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INITIALLY HIGH VALUES OF SOIL MOISTURE. WET SOIL CONDITIONS HELP LOWER TEMPERATURES AND PROVIDE MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.

So basically they're expecting lower temps due to more clouds/rain because of an increase in MCS' (apparently.)

If that is true I wonder why we are in an EC area for precipitation. I guess NOAA does not see it as enough moisture to put us in the above average zone but just enough to lower temps somewhat. I still don't think many people will notice it. Instead of mid 90's we will be looking at lower 90's into very upper 80's.... Plus this should also increase humidity which makes everything worst.

[wxman57]

Looks like wishful thinking. I'd expect the exact opposite. Above normal temps and below normal precip for June. There's nothing to suggest that the pattern is changing.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like wishful thinking. I'd expect the exact opposite. Above normal temps and below normal precip for June. There's nothing to suggest that the pattern is changing.

I hope for a wet and cooler June, like in 1976 or 2007.

[srainhoutx]

Well this is hopeful from HGX concerning rain chances mid week. We need rain!

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST IS STILL A CHALLENGE AS THE GFS HAS A
DIFFERING FORECAST FROM THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE LEANED MORE ON THE WETTER ECMWF/CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LINE OF
THOUGHT. GENERALLY THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WITH
PERHAPS ONE STRONGER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS S TX INTO SE TX ON
WED/THU. EVOLUTION OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS THE MAIN SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ON WED. THE GFS THEN MOVES THE
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EAST AND ALLOWS FOR DRIER CONDITIONS THU/FRI.
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FORECASTS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER AND THEN
DEVELOP A SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE TROUGH IS SLOW TO
MOVE EAST. THIS SCENARIO KEEPS POPS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
FORECAST WILL KEEP 50 POPS ON WED AND THEN TAPER OFF TO 40 POPS
ON THU...20 POPS ON FRI. POSSIBLE THAT HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED
WED/THU BUT STILL SOME TIME TO IRON OUT THOSE DETAILS. THE GFS
DOES BRING 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER OVER SE TX ON WED.
SHOULD THIS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...MAY
HAVE TO THINK ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
IF THE TROUGH IS SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF SUGGEST.

[wxdata]

Quite a wide range of differing opinions about rain chances Wednesday. While HGX is giving Houston a 60% chance of rain Wednesday, for just west of here, San Antonio is giving those areas only a 30% chance and Lake Charles' NWS is also giving Beaumont a 30% chance of rain Wednesday. However they do all agree on a 40% chance on Thursday.

[texoz]

Current predicted high temp forecast for Austin over the next 7 days:

96 Tues
93 Wed
95 Thur
100 Fri (would be a new record)
99 Sat (would tie the record)
100 Sun (would be a new record)
100 Mon (would be a new record)

Not what I would call a "cool" start to June.

[wxdata]

CPC (drastically) changes their outlook for June. Now more in line with May.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL U.S. IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH. THIS FAVORES ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHWEST EASTWARD TO AT LEAST THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION EXPECTED IN THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE IS
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE WEAK SIGNALS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BASED
ON SOIL MOISTURE INDICATED ON THE JUNE OUTLOOK ISSUED IN MID-MAY. AS A RESULT,
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY
REVISED AND NOW INDICATES ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.

INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS RELATED TO THE EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IN
EARLY JUNE REQUIRES REMOVING THE ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION INDICATED FOR PARTS OF TEXAS ON THE OUTLOOK ISSUED IN MID-MAY.

[weatherguy425]

Good Read! Here's hoping for some rain!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
228 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SE TX THIS AFTN WITH PWS
RANGING FROM 1.1-1.2 INCHES WEST TO 1.4-1.5 INCHES OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES. WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS FOR THE EASTERN THIRD THROUGH
EARLY EVENING FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SEABREEZE AND ANY OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE TX/LA
BORDER. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. 12Z GFS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH FORMING OVER SW TX
ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSSING SE TX THURSDAY. WHILE GFS MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP
COOL THE MID LEVELS AND ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THAT AN MCS COULD FORM OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW PWS INCREASING TO 1.6-1.8
INCHES WEDNESDAY WITH NO CAP AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
80S. PWS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY EARLY THURSDAY. ACTIVITY
WILL MOSTLY BE MESOSCALE DRIVEN AFFECTED BY PLACEMENT OF LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES SO CANNOT TIME THE CONVECTION THIS FAR OUT. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS BLANKETED ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED-V
PROFILE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS.
ALSO...GIVEN THE HIGH PWS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. CONVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND DIURNAL IN
NATURE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING EASTERN ZONES FRI AFTN WHERE
THE TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP.

AFTER FRIDAY ATTENTION TURNS TO THE HEAT WHICH WILL BE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN (TO 594+
DM) AND BUILD EAST ACROSS TEXAS BEGINNING SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FLOW AT THE 850 MB BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH TEMPS FCST TO INCREASE TO 21-24C. CONSIDERING HOW HOT ITS
BEEN LATELY WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS THINK THAT MOS GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TOO COOL IN THE DAYS 5-7 RANGE ONCE THE RIDGE IS FIRMLY IN
PLACE. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB TO THE UPPER 90S OVER MOST INLAND
AREAS EACH DAY BEGINNING SATURDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING 100 IN A FEW
SPOTS. THESE TEMPS WILL EASILY THREATEN DAILY RECORDS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH AS WELL. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 102-107 DEGREE RANGE...POSSIBLY REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM STILL APPEARS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY BUT KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

[srainhoutx]

Well this looks hopeful regarding rain chances...before the heat sets in...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
412 AM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-030915-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
412 AM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH THREE...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS MOST INLAND
AREAS BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 107 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

[weatherguy425]

Even more good news!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
626 AM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z MODEL RUNS ARE PAINTING A WETTER SCENARIO TODAY AND THURSDAY.
MOISTURE LEVELS DEEPEN AND THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO FAVORED AREAS
TODAY FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE FIRST WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA
BREEZE GETS ACTIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER AREA IS OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TRIGGERS SHRA/TSRA. ONCE LIFR/MVFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
DISSIPATE...AM EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

[srainhoutx]

Seabreeze kicking in. Showers/Storms developing to our SW.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021946Z - 022045Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING BENEATH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
WCNTRL TX. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CENTER OF CIRCULATION
IS NEAR ABI AND MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS RECENTLY DISSIPATED
ALLOWING FOR RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. EXTREME INSTABILITY HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...EXTENDING SWD INTO DEEP SOUTH
TX...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES EXCEED 4000 J/KG. IT APPEARS RAPID STORM
INTENSIFICATION AND STORM MERGERS ALONG THE ERN-SRN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN A SWD PROPAGATING MCS WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND WITH TIME STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.

..DARROW.. 06/02/2010


ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

Edit to add a large Severe Thunderstorn Watch has been issued for Central TX...

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
302 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

TXZ213-237-238-022100-
BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
302 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF MANVEL...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAN JACINTO STATE
PARK...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...SOUTH HOUSTON...PEARLAND...PASADENA...
MANVEL...JACINTO CITY...HOUSTON...GALENA PARK...FRIENDSWOOD...DEER
PARK AND ALVIN.

[srainhoutx]

Best forecast in a while form HGX...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SOME MINOR HICCUPS WITH AWIPS THIS MORNING BUT EVERYTHING BACK TO
NORMAL AT PRESENT. OTHERWISE CURRENTLY MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISO/SCTD TSRAS THAT HAVE STEADILY MOVED NORTH FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS SINCE THIS MORNING. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE OUT TO THE W/NW AS
WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW/TROF AXIS. THIS FEATURE COM-
BINED WITH THE HEATING SO FAR/LACK OF A CAP AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
SHOULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE EVENING FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTR-
AL TX. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TONIGHT FOR WNWRN ZONES THEN FLIPPING
IT TO THE ESERN COUNTIES FOR EARLY TOMORROW. AS PER THE LATEST IN
MODEL DATA...THIS UPPER LEVEL TROFFING WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR/MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AS IT SEEMS TO LINGER AOA THE TX/LA COAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SO IN LIGHT OF THIS DEVELOPING TREND...HAVE
BACKED OFF (JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES) ON THE HOT/DRY FCST FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE SAME RULE WILL ALSO BE APPLIED TO NEXT WEEK AS LONG-
RANGE GUIDANCE ARE ALL STARTING TO LEAN A BIT MORE TO THE WETTER/
SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF WITH THESE 12Z RUNS. 41

[C2G]

So far here in Friendswood just some moderate rain with a lot of lightning.
Still looks to be building down to our west southwest.......so could see some more soon.

[srainhoutx]

A lot of thunder and wind in NW Harris County earlier and not a drop of rain on my lawn yet!