August 2016: Rain Chances Continue.

[A.V.]

We better not get shafted with this system. Not that anyone here can control that...but still...just venting after so many misses the last decade or so.

I see no geographic reasons these shafts/misses happen in the first place. It is as if God is somehow pulling all the strings, and making these shafts happen.

[srainhoutx]

Luck of the draw. I measured over 70 inches last year and am nearing 50 inches this year to date. Baytown as well as portions of Liberty and Chambers Counties passed 100 inches of rainfall last year.

[Ptarmigan]

Luck of the draw. I measured over 70 inches last year and am nearing 50 inches this year to date. Baytown as well as portions of Liberty and Chambers Counties passed 100 inches of rainfall last year.

To have 100 inches of rain back to back would be highly unusual. The last time to see 100 inches of rain in more than one year is the 1970s. Happened in 1973 and 1979. 1973 was a wet year as it went from El Nino to La Nina, while 1979 was Neutral. Of course there were less weather stations back than.

[Ptarmigan]

Despite being hot and dry, this is nothing like 2011. Comparison between 2011 and 2016.

2011
Strong La Nina In Winter 2010-2011
Dry Spring
Hot Start To Summer
Dry Summer Across The Season
Developing Moderate La Nina
46 Days Of +100°F (Earliest Recorded On June 2, 2011)

2016
Strong El Nino In Winter 2015-2016
Wet Spring
Cooler Start To Summer
Wet Start To Summer
Looks To Be Neutral To Weak La Nina
7 Days Of +100°F (So Far)

[Ounce]

Over here at Katy Freeway and Chimney Rock, we've been getting hammered by rain, thunder, and lightning. A third of an inch in 20 minutes, according to the nearby Weatherbug site.

I thought I was hearing some white noise, but it was rain pelting the tin carport.

[Texaspirate11]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
747 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

TXC201-120145-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0156.160812T0047Z-160812T0145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-
747 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 745 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO A SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORM. AN INCH OF RAIN FELL IN 30 MINUTES NEAR I-10
AND VOSS ROAD. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BELLAIRE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER
HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...GREENWAY / UPPER KIRBY AREA...
SPRING VALLEY...SPRING BRANCH WEST...SPRING BRANCH NORTH...
UNIVERSITY PLACE...AFTON OAKS / RIVER OAKS AREA...ASTRODOME AREA...
EASTERN ADDICKS PARK TEN...HEDWIG VILLAGE...SOUTHSIDE PLACE...
HILSHIRE VILLAGE...THE GALLERIA...SPRING BRANCH CENTRAL...GULFTON
AND GREATER UPTOWN.

[A.V.]

Despite being hot and dry, this is nothing like 2011. Comparison between 2011 and 2016.

2011
Strong La Nina In Winter 2010-2011
Dry Spring
Hot Start To Summer
Dry Summer Across The Season
Developing Moderate La Nina
46 Days Of +100°F (Earliest Recorded On June 2, 2011)

2016
Strong El Nino In Winter 2015-2016
Wet Spring
Cooler Start To Summer
Wet Start To Summer
Looks To Be Neutral To Weak La Nina
7 Days Of +100°F (So Far)

Of course it isn't, 2011 was, by far, the most extreme year in Texas history. However, with the exceptions of 2012/2014, all years of this new decade featured hotter, drier spells than normal.

[A.V.]

Glad many areas of Houston got rain today. The Houston NWS has very low PoPs for Friday (10%), but Beaumont/Port Arthur have a 40% chance that day. Thus, it is possible that rain chances are being under estimated; Houston and Beaumont basically abut eachother.

[Texaspirate11]

Despite being hot and dry, this is nothing like 2011. Comparison between 2011 and 2016.

2011
Strong La Nina In Winter 2010-2011
Dry Spring
Hot Start To Summer
Dry Summer Across The Season
Developing Moderate La Nina
46 Days Of +100°F (Earliest Recorded On June 2, 2011)

2016
Strong El Nino In Winter 2015-2016
Wet Spring
Cooler Start To Summer
Wet Start To Summer
Looks To Be Neutral To Weak La Nina
7 Days Of +100°F (So Far)

Of course it isn't, 2011 was, by far, the most extreme year in Texas history. However, with the exceptions of 2012/2014, all years of this new decade featured hotter, drier spells than normal.

Here's a few stats on our hot weather

Houston has recorded 5 consecutive days with 100 degree heat and
seven 100 degree days in 2016. Last year, Houston recorded six
consecutive days in August with 100 degree heat (Aug 6 - Aug 11).
43

[Katdaddy]

One more day with a Heat Advisory for SE TX before slightly cooler temps and significant rain chances arrive as the mid level low over SE LA drifts westward into TX.

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Discussion provides to clues as to what we may expect and the subtle differences between the various guidance.



Central Gulf Coast
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...High Risk of Excessive Rainfall Once Again Across Portions of
the Central Gulf Coast...

Abundant moisture remains in place across the Southeast, with the
exceptionally anomalous 2.5-2.75+ inch PW values along the central
Gulf Coast, including an observed 2.71" per the KLIX 00Z 08/12
RAOB. These values are between 3-4 standard deviations above the
norm (approaching record values) per the SREF and GEFS. The best
description of this system is that of a sheared inland tropical
depression, as the upper high over the system has moseyed off to
the TX/LA border, advecting north-northeast flow over the top of
the system. The best analog is Tropical Depression Five (2010)
during its second trip into the Gulf Coast. Given the deep high
theta-e/moist profile for optimal warm rain processes (wet bulb
zero heights a whopping 16KFT per the 00Z KLIX sounding), the
threat for heavy tropical banding rains across this area will
continue given the slow westward drift of the TUTT.

WPC maintained a fairly large swath of areal-average QPF between
3-6" across eastern LA and southern MS. However, all of the
higher-resolution CAMs indicate pockets of much higher amounts,
7-10+ inches between 12Z Fri-12Z Sat. Given the additional heavy
rains over already saturated soils (low FFG values), WPC will
maintain a fairly broad MODERATE and HIGH risk area in the day 1
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) over the central Gulf region --
similar to the day 2 ERO on Thursday.

DAYS 2/3...


...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH WEST...AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO BE PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT LIKELY CONTINUES
INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS LA. BY LATER SATURDAY THE
MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
FOCUSED AND MORE STRUNG OUT AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECT OF THE
TROUGH LIFTING TO THE NORTH. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO HOW
FAR WEST THE SYSTEM GETS AND THEN HOW QUICKLY IT BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTH...WHICH END UP HAVING A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON QPF.
OVERALL THE NAM AND GEM HANDLE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
DIFFERENT THAN THE BEST CLUSTERING AND ARE THUS NOT PREFERRED. THE
0Z GFS IS THE FURTHEST WEST SOLUTION...AND THE SLOWEST TO BRING
THE SYSTEM NORTH...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CROSS
SOUTHERN LA. THE 0Z ECMWF AND UKMET ARE A BIT EAST AND
QUICKER...AND WHILE STILL SIGNIFICANT...BOTH HAVE QPF MAGNITUDES
ABOUT HALF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE GFS AND SHIFTED NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LA. OVERALL THE TREND APPEARS TO BE FOR A
SLIGHTLY EAST AND QUICKER SOLUTION...WITH THE 0Z ECMWF PROBABLY
CLOSEST TO THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN SOME LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY...WPC QPF STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE 0Z
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET...WHICH RESULTS IN A PRETTY BROAD 2-4" ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN LA. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS THINK THE GFS
MAY VERY WELL BE A BIT TOO WET AND TOO FAR SOUTH. CURRENTLY WOULD
EXPECT THE BEST THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 4-7" AMOUNTS ON
DAY 2 (12Z SAT-12Z SUN) TO FOCUS ACROSS CENTRAL LA. OPTED TO
INTRODUCE A MODERATE RISK ON DAY 2 FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LA...WHERE THIS RAIN ON TOP OF WHAT FALLS TODAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE
CONTINUED AREAS OF FLOOD CONCERN.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND. EXPECT AN AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
DEVELOP...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE PLAINS...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. EXPECTING NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO POOL ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TEXAS. THIS AXIS OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE
NEARLY STATIONARY. MEANWHILE EXPECT A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PLAINS TROUGH...WITH
THE AREA ALSO SEEING PERIODS OF INCREASED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THUS
WOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF CONVECTION WITHIN THIS MOISTURE AXIS.
CORFIDI VECTORS BECOME VERY LIGHT...SUGGESTING THAT NEARLY
STATIONARY CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ONLY A SLOW
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT HELPING PROGRESS THINGS. THUS SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

OVERALL THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE QPF AXIS
ACROSS TEXAS...WITH THIS TREND SEEN IN ALL THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A QUICKER FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND
A FURTHER EAST POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT TREND...WPC ALSO SHIFTED QPF
SOUTHEASTWARD. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
QPF...AND WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS OF THE
ECMWF/GFS/UKMET. AMOUNTS WERE KEPT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE GIVEN
THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY. A SLIGHT RISK WAS MAINTAINED FOR DAY 2
AND ISSUED FOR DAY 3 ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
THE SETUP DOES SEEM TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EVENTUAL UPGRADE
TO A MODERATE RISK WHEN CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF
HIGHEST AMOUNTS INCREASES...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR

[jasons2k]

If it ever gets here. Was supposed to start yesterday now it looks like tomorrow...unless it gets delayed again...

[srainhoutx]

If it ever gets here. Was supposed to start yesterday now it looks like tomorrow...unless it gets delayed again...

Guess you didn't see the Flood Advisory yesterday evening in Central Harris County or hear the constant rumble of thunder around 7:00 PM.

[jasons2k]

I saw the spec from afar during my evening walk amongst a forest of wilting plants.

[srainhoutx]

I saw the spec from afar during my evening walk amongst a forest of wilting plants.

I feel your pain. My pool is just evaporating water daily and all I got was a bunch of noise of distant thunder.

[Ounce]

Over here at Katy Freeway and Chimney Rock, we've been getting hammered by rain, thunder, and lightning. A third of an inch in 20 minutes, according to the nearby Weatherbug site.

I thought I was hearing some white noise, but it was rain pelting the tin carport.

We ended up with 1.29" after the hour of rain.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, it was a nice little cell. I was jealous. I had a nice view and it was beautiful during the sunset. But that's all there was and when the sun went down - poof! - I watched it collapse. Seemed like there was actually more coverage on Wednesday that yesterday. I just hope the weekend pans out as planned and doesn't bust on us.

[jasons2k]

Heat Index is already 98F up here. Geez.

[Ounce]

Heat Index is already 98F up here. Geez.

Well, hang in there. The A/C still works and we don't live in the 1940's. It could be way worse.

[jasons2k]

Yes, true indeed. Funny you mention the A/C - ours has had no trouble all summer and then in the last week, it has struggled to keep the upstairs below about 79. Our spring inspection was fine, but it seemed something wasn't right. Well it turns out the equipment is just fine but our attic is not vented properly, and it's heating the ducts. The heat the last week has been just too much.

I have noticed the heat a lot more lately as we have an ongoing step/workout challenge @ work and I have been outside a lot, even in the heat of the day, adding to my step count. It's HOT. Can't even imagine life in Texas before we had A/C...