August 2016: Rain Chances Continue.

[ticka1]

do we start drying out after tomorrow with the high pressur moving back over us?

[Katdaddy]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
319 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

TXZ214-236>238-291630-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0011.160829T0900Z-160829T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-MATAGORDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...LAKE JACKSON...LEAGUE CITY...
MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...TEXAS CITY...WINNIE
319 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON ...AND MATAGORDA.

* UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY

* HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST YESTERDAY AND AGAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS LEFT SOILS SATURATED. A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE COAST THROUGH MID MORNING.
STORM MOTION IS FASTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT SOME PORTIONS OF THE
COAST BETWEEN GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA COULD GET A QUICK 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN BY NOON.

* BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE
THE DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS
OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

[unome]

Radar Precip Est From 01:07 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Flash Flood Watch in effect until noon for the coastal counties of Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda.

While the majority of the area saw less than an inch of rainfall on Sunday, coastal portions of Brazoria County around Freeport saw upwards of 10 inches of rainfall from slow moving to nearly stationary convection. Radar this morning shows the weak surface low having drifted SSW overnight and is now south of Matagorda Bay and east of Corpus Christi. Widespread convection continues over the Gulf waters with a few storms moving inland over the coastal counties, but weakening as they move NW. Rainfall…some heavy…will be confined to near the coast this morning and then push inland with daytime heating. May take until late morning or early afternoon to get things going inland with surface heating being held back by morning cloud cover.

Building upper level high pressure cell and dry air mass will work together to begin reducing rain chances on Tuesday and reduce them back toward normal summer levels on Wednesday and Thursday (20-30%) and tied more to the seabreeze.

A weak frontal boundary will approach from the NE on Friday and with PWs of 2.0-2.2 inches expect an active afternoon and evening hours with thunderstorms advancing into the area from the ENE/NE. This boundary should get a little extra push from what at that time will likely be a tropical storm from TD 9 over the NE Gulf of Mexico.

Frontal boundary washes out over the region next weekend and upper air disturbances approach from the east by late next weekend which should keep rain chances going in this overall very wet weather pattern of late.

TD #9:
Poorly organized depression drifting westward into the SE Gulf of Mexico this morning. Deep convection has blown off to the S and SW overnight due to 20-25kts of N shear over the system. This shear is forecasted to relax starting this afternoon and may allow deeper convection to develop closer to the center. NHC maintains that the depression will slowly organize into a tropical storm over the next few days as it moves W and then turns toward the N and NE toward FL.

Easterly flow across the northern Gulf of Mexico combined with the circulation around TD 9 will help to push higher than normal tides against the TX coast through mid week. Expect tides to run about 1.5 ft above normal with total water levels up to 3.0 ft especially on the Gulf facing beaches.

[Katdaddy]

The upper low continues its movement down the coast with the highest rain chance across SW portions of SE TX today. The ridge builds back in the next few days before a backdoor cool front moves into SE TX and brings addition rain and thunderstorm chances Friday through the Labor Day weekend.

[mckinne63]

Nice little shower in Stafford. Figures, I had just put the hose in the pool. Looking at radar it is a small cell. No thunder, but did see the winds pick up.

[Skyguy]

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Flash Flood Watch in effect until noon for the coastal counties of Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda.

While the majority of the area saw less than an inch of rainfall on Sunday, coastal portions of Brazoria County around Freeport saw upwards of 10 inches of rainfall from slow moving to nearly stationary convection. Radar this morning shows the weak surface low having drifted SSW overnight and is now south of Matagorda Bay and east of Corpus Christi. Widespread convection continues over the Gulf waters with a few storms moving inland over the coastal counties, but weakening as they move NW. Rainfall…some heavy…will be confined to near the coast this morning and then push inland with daytime heating. May take until late morning or early afternoon to get things going inland with surface heating being held back by morning cloud cover.

Building upper level high pressure cell and dry air mass will work together to begin reducing rain chances on Tuesday and reduce them back toward normal summer levels on Wednesday and Thursday (20-30%) and tied more to the seabreeze.

A weak frontal boundary will approach from the NE on Friday and with PWs of 2.0-2.2 inches expect an active afternoon and evening hours with thunderstorms advancing into the area from the ENE/NE. This boundary should get a little extra push from what at that time will likely be a tropical storm from TD 9 over the NE Gulf of Mexico.

Frontal boundary washes out over the region next weekend and upper air disturbances approach from the east by late next weekend which should keep rain chances going in this overall very wet weather pattern of late.

TD #9:
Poorly organized depression drifting westward into the SE Gulf of Mexico this morning. Deep convection has blown off to the S and SW overnight due to 20-25kts of N shear over the system. This shear is forecasted to relax starting this afternoon and may allow deeper convection to develop closer to the center. NHC maintains that the depression will slowly organize into a tropical storm over the next few days as it moves W and then turns toward the N and NE toward FL.

Easterly flow across the northern Gulf of Mexico combined with the circulation around TD 9 will help to push higher than normal tides against the TX coast through mid week. Expect tides to run about 1.5 ft above normal with total water levels up to 3.0 ft especially on the Gulf facing beaches.

Can I have some data on how strong or threatening these advancing thunderstorms will be on Friday? My internet friends have no data on that, either.

[Katdaddy]

A quiet morning across SE TX with a 20-30% chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms the next several days.