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I am hopeful that we will have a quiet hurricane season.

The afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Outlooks suggest no real change in this wet and stormy pattern.

The overnight Global guidance continues to suggest a somewhat active and unsettled pattern as we begin June. The longer range European and GFS schemes are suggesting the possibility of a monsoonal trough developing around the 5th-6th of June across the NW Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche. There are some indications that a broad area of lowering pressure may attempt to organize a surface low, so we may need to monitor for any potential tropical troubles attempting to spin up later next week.

THE NOAA GODS have spoken

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season has been released. It will most likely be a near-normal season, but forecast uncertainty in the climate signals that influence the formation of Atlantic storms make predicting this season particularly difficult.

Remember, the outlook cannot tell you if or where the storms will make landfall and what the impacts would be. You should prepare the same, regardless of the seasonal forecast numbers. It only takes one storm hitting you to make it a bad year.
http://www.noaa.gov/near-normal-atlanti ... e-season-m…

The Friday Updated Climate Prediction Center Extended Outlook well into June show no real change in this wet and stormy pattern. The Experimental Week 3 to 4 Outlook paints the same general pattern continuing. It is also noteworthy that the Global guidance suggests some potential tropical troubles later next weekend in the NW Caribbean Sea/Southern Gulf of Mexico. The guidance also suggests a potential stalling boundary across Central Texas next Thursday with the possibility of another heavy rainfall event. Stay tuned folks. We appear to be stuck in a very stubborn pattern.

I will appreciate a lovely weekend from June 10 - 12 as we will be hosting many out - of - staters in the Fayette County area. In reading srain's posts, we may need to plan some indoor activities.
I'll stay tuned!

The overnight guidance continues to advertise an active weather pattern developing as we begin June. A slow moving frontal boundary looks to meander across Texas beginning late Wednesday into next weekend. Showers and thunderstorms with another heavy rainfall potential begins to enter our sensible weather forecast Thursday into next Saturday. We will need to monitor the trends early next week for yet another active and unsettled pattern.

Hurricane Season kicks off Wednesday and there continues to be some indications that a monsoonal trough may develop across the NW Caribbean Sea possibly extending into the Southern Gulf in the early days of June. While there are no signs of tropical development, very deep tropical moisture appears to pool across the Western Caribbean Sea and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. It is not uncommon in early June to see a broad area of lowering pressure associated with these monsoonal troughs that can eventually spawn a surface low, so we will continue to monitor that area for any potential tropical troubles that may spin up.

The 12Z GFS suggest an additional 2-5 inches of rainfall may be possible, particularly Tuesday into Thursday as we begin June.

srainhoutx wrote:The afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Outlooks suggest no real change in this wet and stormy pattern.

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Some of the analogs are interesting, especially 2004, 2006, and 2007. They had wet summers. 2004 and 2006 had developing El Nino, while 2007 came off of El Nino and becoming La Nina.

The afternoon Global guidance continues to advertise a rather unusual pattern developing during the coming work week. Another Western trough swings through the Southern Rockies while further North along the Polar jetstream a very potent storm system organizes and sends a Canadian front into the Southern Plains. Ahead and along the front, the models suggest showers and thunderstorms may develop with a very moist airmass in place ahead of the rather slow moving frontal boundary. There are indications that a Coastal trough/low may attempt to organize near Brownsville that further raises an eyebrow. While we are several days away from knowing exactly what the sensible weather will be, due to all the recent flooding and our neighbors are suffering from flooded homes, it is worth monitoring the weather trends particularly early next week. Stay tuned and check back for more updates.

srainhoutx wrote:The afternoon Global guidance continues to advertise a rather unusual pattern developing during the coming work week. Another Western trough swings through the Southern Rockies while further North along the Polar jetstream a very potent storm system organizes and sends a Canadian front into the Southern Plains. Ahead and along the front, the models suggest showers and thunderstorms may develop with a very moist airmass in place ahead of the rather slow moving frontal boundary. There are indications that a Coastal trough/low may attempt to organize near Brownsville that further raises an eyebrow. While we are several days away from knowing exactly what the sensible weather will be, due to all the recent flooding and our neighbors are suffering from flooded homes, it is worth monitoring the weather trends particularly early next week. Stay tuned and check back for more updates.

Looks more like a fall setup than late spring or early summer. Those setups can lead to extremely heavy rain.

I have seen upper level lows over the Four Corners and that kind of setup leads to flooding like in June 1973, May 1989, October 1994, and Tax Day 2016.

I am becoming increasingly concerned that potions of our Region may see yet another heavy rainfall potential. The overnight guidance continues to advertise a combination of features that point to a very unsettled pattern. A potent upper trough will eject out of the Great Basin Tuesday with embedded disturbances rotating beneath the trough as well as the sub tropical jet. Another feature is something we have not seen lately and that is a very wet phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation progressing E from the Eastern Pacific into the Western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf. The blues and purples on the MJO charts below suggest rising air and very deep tropical moisture being entrained into an slow moving frontal boundary that will approach Tuesday into the rest of the upcoming work week. This Canadian front is expected to be rather strong, but likely will not make much progress of the Coast as the Upper Air dynamics are well to our NE in the Great Lakes. An Upper Ridge attempts to build to our West in California that may allow additional disturbance to ride S later in the work week toward Texas. All in all, the pesky and stormy pattern looks to persist into the coming week as we begin June. Stay Tuned folks, we are all tired of this very wet and flooding pattern that we just cannot seem to shake.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
http://www.cpcpara.ncep.noaa.gov/

CPC's days 8-14 (Jun 5-11 currently) shows below-normal precip, but other time periods are all very wet - that time period also has scorching temps out west

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... cp.new.gif

The 12Z GFS has been rather insistent on developing a Coastal low/trough along the tail end of the frontal boundary that appears to be stalled along the Coast next weekend. Such a scenario raises an eyebrow as we sometimes see a bit of a spin up in June along the tail end of these stalled boundaries that can create problems of extended rainfall and the possibility of Coastal flooding if they become stronger than the models at this range can resolve.

Yeah, I've been concerned about tropical development along the boundary.


The high CAPE and southern jet predictions are out in West Texas this week though...so we have that going for us. The GFS is sticking to prediction of rainfall exceeding 1 inch from the Hill Country west...but we'll see how this plays out in the next few days.

We are starting to see some ensemble support from the American Ensembles (GEFS) suggesting an area of low pressure at the surface, mid and the upper levels may well be possible at the tail end of that stalled boundary next weekend.
Edit to add:
The European model seems to agree on the potential of a Coastal low/trough as well and the Update WPC Day 3 to 7 Surface Charts suggests the potential as well.

Afternoon updated quantitative precipitation forecast continues to increase. If a Coastal low does develop, except these totals to go up further particularly along the Coastal tier of Counties.

GFS is also picking up the coastal low at 132 hours out (Saturday)...waiting on the 18z run.

A beautiful satellite this evening across the Plains as an active pattern continues.