April 2016 Recap: Regional Flood/Severe Weather

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unome
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Re: April 2016 - Split Flow With Increasing Rain Chances

Post by unome » Mon Apr 11, 2016 2:25 am

waking up to the sound of rain = happy dance :D

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/

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Re: April 2016 - Split Flow With Increasing Rain Chances

Post by Katdaddy » Mon Apr 11, 2016 4:52 am

The SPC has an enhanced risk area across SE OK, SW AR, NE TX, and ETX today. A large portion of SE TX has been placed in a slight risk area. If storms can fire later today; the primary hazards will be hail and damaging winds. Stay weather aware this afternoon.
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Re: April 2016 - Split Flow With Increasing Rain Chances

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Apr 11, 2016 7:11 am

Morning briefing from Jeff:

A slight chance for severe thunderstorms across the northern ½ of SE TX this afternoon.

Large scale upper level flow remains out of the SW across TX with several upper level impulses riding these high level winds across the state. Each of these disturbances is producing a round of showers and thunderstorms. One such disturbance is currently crossing the area with scattered showers ongoing north of I-10 this morning and offshore across the coastal waters.

Big question this morning is what will transpire this afternoon as parameters will be in place for strong to severe thunderstorms, but a strong capping inversion must be overcome for those storms to be realized. Low level stratus deck in place this morning will make it hard to get much heating although some weak subsidence behind the departing disturbance later this morning may help in scattering out the low level clouds…time will tell. Next incoming disturbance will yield some additional lift over areas N of I-10 this afternoon during peak heating and this may be enough to overcome the cap in place a couple thousand feet off the ground. Anything able to get through the cap will have plenty of instability to work with along with decent shear. Will favor the areas north of a line from College Station to Conroe to Liberty for the greatest severe threat…even though SPC has the slight risk area further SW including metro Houston. Think the cap will be too strong to overcome south of I-10 and do not expect any strong to severe thunderstorms in this region this afternoon. Critical surface temperature to watch for this afternoon is between 81-83 degrees for the cap to break.

Main threats in any severe storms will be large hail and damaging winds with the tornado threat a distant second.

Front will cross the area on Tuesday morning allowing a cooler and drier air mass to filter into the region, but this will be short lived as the front stalls just off the coast and the next upper level disturbance quickly approaches from the west. Meso models are wanting to bring showers back toward the coast as early as late Tuesday afternoon with much more significant development overnight into Wednesday as strong lift arrives from the SW over the top of the frontal boundary which will attempt to move northward as a warm front. Instability looks slight so still not expecting much severe weather, but high moisture levels do support a heavy rainfall threat especially along the coast north to about US 59.

Thursday and Friday continue to feature the area between weather systems and overall decent weather. Moisture advection returns in earnest over the weekend with showers and thunderstorms likely back in the forecast by late Saturday.
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Re: April 2016 - Split Flow With Increasing Rain Chances

Post by jasons2k » Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:01 am

A day of watching satellite loops. Already some clearing noted to the SW. With the April sun, the stratus deck may get burned off. We'll see...

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Re: April 2016 - Split Flow With Increasing Rain Chances

Post by jasons2k » Mon Apr 11, 2016 10:28 am

It's up to 80F in Angleton and 77F at Hobby with breaks in the clouds.

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Re: April 2016 - Split Flow With Increasing Rain Chances

Post by Cromagnum » Mon Apr 11, 2016 12:21 pm

Everyone seems to be saying that the cap is very strong and will hold, especially south of Houston. Time to get the sprinklers out anyways... :|

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Re: April 2016 - Split Flow With Increasing Rain Chances

Post by ticka1 » Mon Apr 11, 2016 12:25 pm

Cap is holding all over current SE Texas area - will have to water garden tonight.

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Re: April 2016 - Split Flow With Increasing Rain Chances

Post by Andrew » Mon Apr 11, 2016 5:40 pm

Both Wednesday and this weekend offer increased rain chances so I wouldn't give up yet. This weekend could be very interesting if the EURO is correct. A cutoff low over northwestern Texas could sit there for much of the weekend and produce multiple rounds of rain. This is a rather complex situation but models have been rather consistent that somewhere over the southern plains could see a heavy rain potential.
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Re: April 2016 - Split Flow With Increasing Rain Chances

Post by Cromagnum » Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:03 pm

One can only hope...

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Re: April 2016 - Split Flow With Increasing Rain Chances

Post by Katdaddy » Tue Apr 12, 2016 4:49 am

59 hail reports across NTX yesterday with largest hail being reported in Wylie, TX with softball size 4.25" hail.

A slight risk area exists this evening across STX along the Rio Grande with a marginal risk across S Central and portions of SE TX. In addition a heavy rain threat exists for SE TX from late tonight through early afternoon Wednesday.

Additional rains possible through the weekend beginning late Friday night through next Monday.
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