April 2016 Recap: Regional Flood/Severe Weather

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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Definitely worth monitoring the weather during the coming weekend into early next week. The ensembles are in relative good agreement that an omega blocking Ridge of High pressure over the Great Lakes slows the progression of a wound up upper low and deep Western trough near the Southern Rockies where it may sit and spin drawing up copious moisture from the Western Gulf into Central and SE Texas along with very heavy thunderstorm activity capable of dropping heavy rainfall amounts in short order. It's too soon to know this far out exactly what our sensible weather may bring, but the QPF output does raise an eyebrow. We will see how things develop throughout the coming work week. Andrew has been eyeing this timeframe for a while. Stay tuned in case the potential threat increases further for a possible Flooding Rainfall event across the Hill County into portions of our backyard in SE Texas.
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04122016 00Z Euro EPS 120 ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_6.png
04122016 48 Hour QPF Day 6 to 7 97ep48iwbg_fill.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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ticka1
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Srainhoutx - when are you leaving for the hurricane conference?
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srainhoutx
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ticka1 wrote:Srainhoutx - when are you leaving for the hurricane conference?
We leave tomorrow morning around 9:00AM. Myself and wxman57 return Sunday afternoon and Katdaddy and David are flying back Saturday.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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ticka1
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srainhoutx wrote:
ticka1 wrote:Srainhoutx - when are you leaving for the hurricane conference?
We leave tomorrow morning around 9:00AM. Myself and wxman57 return Sunday afternoon and Katdaddy and David are flying back Saturday.
Okay - have a safe and successful trip and enjoy trading weather stories and information with all your fellow weather friends.
ticka1
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Latest email from Jeff Lindner:

Active weather period tonight into Wednesday.

Weak surface boundary has pushed off the coast this morning per surface winds out of the NE. Dewpoints not showing much change across the boundary until one gets north of I-10 where they drop into the mid 60’s. Still plenty of moisture to work with, and feel the models were a bit overdone in the drying of the low levels. Appears a short wave disturbance is already approaching from the SW with radar showing eh formation of showers between San Antonio and Matagorda Bay drifting ENE. This feature could bring rain into our western and southwestern counties this afternoon.

Much stronger short wave defined over southern New Mexico will eject across TX starting later this afternoon and into Wednesday. Meso scale models show a decent amount of thunderstorm development with this feature over SW TX by later this afternoon and bring a complex of storms SE into SE TX overnight. TX TECH and HRRR are fairly fastest and bring the storms toward the area in the midnight to 300am time period. Would expect these storms to be elevated above the near surface frontal layer which should help reduce any significant severe threat…however elevated instability could be enough to produce a few damaging hail reports.

Main threat continues to point toward heavy rainfall as moisture pools in the region between the coast and roughly US 59. PWS rise to near 1.8 inches this evening and this coupled with the potential for trailing short wave energy along a near coastal boundary into Wednesday morning points toward a period of heavy rainfall. Meso models are showing the initial line of storms moving quickly across much of the region, but slowing along the US 59/coastal counties corridor Wednesday morning. Not sure if this will happen or if the complex will be organized enough to blow right on off the coast. Something to keep an eye on for Wednesday morning.

Rainfall amounts will average 1-2 inches across the region with isolated totals of 3-4 inches along and south of US 59.

Thursday-Friday:
Short wave ridging will help to clear out the skies and post frontal air mass will be fairly dry for this time of year. Enjoy as tis break in the active weather will be short lived.

Weekend-Early Next Week:
Longer range models coming into to good agreement on a powerful upper level storm system to move into the SW US and slow down…possibly stalling this weekend into early next week. Waves of upper level lift and energy will eject out of this feature and into TX starting Saturday while strong warm air advection off the Gulf of Mexico transpires over much of TX. Moisture levels will greatly deepen and the air mass looks saturated by late Saturday with potential for showers and even thunderstorms moving south to north off the Gulf. Hard to time disturbances will eject across the state during this period with several rounds of thunderstorms. Indicators are pointing toward a potentially significant QPF event, but where the highest QPF may occur is still too soon to determine. Severe weather will also be likely with this system across much of TX…especially Sunday-Tuesday.
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HRRR has some pretty strong storms coming in late overnight. Could see some stronger winds if it is correct.
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djjordan
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC157-481-122230-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0014.160412T2147Z-160412T2230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
447 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 446 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WHARTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WHARTON...NEEDVILLE...EAST BERNARD...KENDLETON...PIERCE AND HUNGERFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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Severe T-storm Watch issued until 1AM off to our west.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 87
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC013-019-025-029-031-055-091-123-127-137-163-171-175-177-187-
209-255-259-265-271-283-285-297-311-323-325-385-463-469-493-507-
130600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0087.160413T0045Z-160413T0600Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATASCOSA BANDERA BEE
BEXAR BLANCO CALDWELL
COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT
EDWARDS FRIO GILLESPIE
GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE
HAYS KARNES KENDALL
KERR KINNEY LAVACA
LA SALLE LIVE OAK MAVERICK
MCMULLEN MEDINA REAL
UVALDE VICTORIA WILSON
ZAVALA

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~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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Keeping a close eye on the storms out west. Numerous reports of Baseball and Tennis Ball sized hail doing damage in and around the San Antonio area as they move east. As these storms moved east they are expected to become more linear segments and hopefully the large hail threat will diminish some, but they still could pack a punch so stay weather aware. Also the heavy rain threat overnight continues into Wednesday morning. Target area for the heaviest rain continues to be primarily IH-10 and south towards the coast, but everyone can expect some rainfall from this system overnight.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1020 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

TXZ191>193-206>209-223-130415-
GUADALUPE TX-COMAL TX-FAYETTE TX-BASTROP TX-GONZALES TX-CALDWELL TX-
TRAVIS TX-HAYS TX-
1020 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL FAYETTE...BASTROP...
CALDWELL...EAST CENTRAL COMAL...SOUTHERN TRAVIS...NORTHERN
GONZALES...NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE AND CENTRAL HAYS COUNTIES UNTIL
1115 PM CDT...

AT 1020 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BARTON CREEK TO NEAR
SAN MARCOS TO NEAR MCQUEENEY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...NEW BRAUNFELS...SAN MARCOS...LOCKHART...GONZALES...BASTROP...
LULING...SMITHVILLE...WIMBERLEY...TANGLEWOOD FOREST...AUSTIN BERGSTROM
INT AP...KYLE...BUDA...ROLLINGWOOD...MARTINDALE...WAELDER...UHLAND...MUSTANG
RIDGE...NIEDERWALD AND BEAR CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&


A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3023 9709 2937 9731 2968 9810 3028 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 295DEG 35KT 3025 9789 2985 9790 2966 9806

$$

CP
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
954 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

TXZ202-203-130330-
KINNEY TX-UVALDE TX-
954 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN UVALDE AND EAST CENTRAL
KINNEY COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 954 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CLINE...OR 18 MILES EAST OF SPOFFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UVALDE...BLEWETT...LAGUNA...DABNEY...MONTELL...CLINE...UVALDE ESTATES AND
KNIPPA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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