April 2016 Recap: Regional Flood/Severe Weather

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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djjordan
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
958 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST AND WILL BE MOVING THRU SE TX OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO EXPAND LOCALLY AS INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER
FLOW ENCOUNTERS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED INLAND.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING TWO POSSIBLE AREAS TO KEEP AN EYE ON
OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HUNG UP. THE SECOND IS AN AREA SITUATED FROM
MAYBE CLL-LFK WHERE AN AREA OF H85 SPEED CONVERGENCE IS FCST TO
SET UP.
REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS TO HOW THE MESOSCALE PLAYS OUT BUT
BOTH AREAS SEEM PLAUSIBLE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS
LOOK TO REMAIN POSSIBLE. HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIP MIGHT MOVE
OUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN WHAT`S CURRENTLY IN THE FCST. BUT RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HASN`T BEEN ALL THAT GREAT...SO THERE`S CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THAT REGARD. 47

&&
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:19 pm
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1038 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL DEWITT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
GONZALES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1036 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF NIXON...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SEGUIN...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEGUIN...GONZALES...CUERO...NIXON...SMILEY...CHEAPSIDE...HOCHHEIM...
PALMETO...WESTHOFF...WRIGHTSBORO...BELMONT...OAK FOREST...LITTLE NEW
YORK...SAMPLE...DREYER...DILWORTH...CONCRETE...MONTHALIA...OTTINE AND
COST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:19 pm
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 AM CDT

* AT 1045 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...ROUND ROCK...CEDAR PARK...GEORGETOWN...PFLUGERVILLE...TAYLOR...
ELGIN...GRANGER...SERENADA...WINDEMERE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...
TANGLEWOOD FOREST...ANDERSON MILL...LEANDER...HUTTO...MANOR...BEE CAVE...
WEST LAKE HILLS...ROLLINGWOOD AND LIBERTY HILL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
Posts: 928
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:19 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1057 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
BASTROP COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CALDWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN GONZALES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN LAVACA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1056 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP TO 12 MILES EAST OF
LOCKHART TO PALMETO...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...LOCKHART...BASTROP...LULING...LA GRANGE...SMITHVILLE...
SCHULENBURG...HALLETTSVILLE...SHINER...FLATONIA...MOULTON...AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INT AP...WAELDER...MUSTANG RIDGE...ROSANKY...PAIGE...CEDAR
CREEK...MULDOON...CIRCLE D-KC ESTATE AND WYLDWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:19 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0376
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 130406Z - 130600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE...MOVING EWD FROM
SCNTRL TX INTO SE TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
WITHIN THE HOUR.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED FROM SCNTRL TX EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS SE TX. A
MULTI-SEGMENTED LINE WITH A BOWING STRUCTURE AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
IS LOCATED TO THE ENE OF SAN ANTONIO. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EWD INTO SE TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...REMAINING PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT NEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS WEAK IN THE HOUSTON AREA...THE LATEST HGX WSR-88D VWP
SHOWS 65 TO 70 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
FROM 0 TO 3 KM AGL. THIS WIND PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES
MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
Image
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
mcheer23
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Location: Missouri City/ Sugar Land
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Should be a Severe T-Storm watch issued within the hour.
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djjordan
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mcheer23 wrote:Should be a Severe T-Storm watch issued within the hour.
You are correct .... here it is until 5AM for parts of the area.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 88
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC015-039-071-089-157-167-201-239-321-473-481-131000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0088.160413T0425Z-160413T1000Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUSTIN BRAZORIA CHAMBERS
COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON
HARRIS JACKSON MATAGORDA
WALLER WHARTON
$$

Image
Last edited by djjordan on Tue Apr 12, 2016 11:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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DoctorMu
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Location: College Station
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mcheer23 wrote:Should be a Severe T-Storm watch issued within the hour.
NW Harris Co with a target on its back. Should be hit in about 2 hours. Huge meso that could affect from Navasota to League city. Lightning and thunder display beginning in CLL
Last edited by DoctorMu on Wed Apr 13, 2016 1:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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djjordan
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Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:19 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1142 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 1141 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF LA GRANGE TO NEAR SCHULENBURG
TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOULTON TO NEAR SHINER...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...FRELSBURG...SHERIDAN...ROCK ISLAND...
ALTAIR...GARWOOD...CAT SPRING...NEW ULM AND NADA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
User avatar
djjordan
Posts: 928
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:19 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC021-149-177-285-287-130530-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0072.160413T0445Z-160413T0530Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1145 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EASTERN BASTROP COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL GONZALES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
LEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHERN LAVACA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT


* AT 1145 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF CAMP SWIFT TO 8 MILES EAST OF
SMITHVILLE TO NEAR MULDOON TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF SCHULENBURG TO
NEAR SHINER...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BASTROP...GIDDINGS...LA GRANGE...SMITHVILLE...SCHULENBURG...FLATONIA...
LEXINGTON...MOULTON...SHELBY...FAYETTEVILLE...ROUND TOP...SUBLIME...
FEDOR...PAIGE...MULDOON...CIRCLE D-KC ESTATE...CIRCLE D-KC ESTATES...
CAMP SWIFT...DIME BOX AND UPTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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