March 2016 - Progressive Changeable Weather To End The Month

[ticka1]

With Spring's early arrival and increase in severe weather? March 1st is one week away.

[Electric Lizard]

My car club will be holding our annual race at Texas World Speedway in College Station March 4-6. Weather plays an important part in many facets of this outdoor event. How's it look?

[srainhoutx]

The overnight computer guidance is suggesting another potent shortwave diving SE into our Region next week. While the European model is a tad faster with the cold upper trough arriving across Texas, the ensembles do indicate another active storm system may organize bringing another round of potentially severe weather near the 2nd or 3rd of March, +/- a day or two.

[srainhoutx]

It's good to be home from a very dry Southern California. The weather was actually a bit warmer there and we have currently in Houston and very dry, but visibilities were unusually good along the entire flight path. The flight home was very uneventful with absolutely no weather issues. I did notice that things are greening up across West Texas and the Hill Country Lakes are in much better shape than the last time I flew over Central Texas a year ago last January. Rain chance this week look rather minimal with the next storm system passing well to our N. The Climate Prediction Center does indicate in their Day 8 to 14 Outlook issued yesterday that above normal precipitation may be likely as the MJO is fully into Phase 8 which suggests a wetter and active period for the Eastern Pacific and the Western Hemisphere.

[Katdaddy]

More Spring-like weather through the week and next weekend with highs in the 70s. The SPC has a slight risk area over OK tonight and a large slight risk area Tuesday across portions of the Lower MS, TN, and OH valleys eastward into the Central and S Appalachians. A marginal risk also exists for E, SE, and S TX on Tuesday. Currently only a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday for the Houston-Galveston areas but its possible there may be a few strong storms. Nice weather to continue through the rest of the week and weekend with only a slight chance of showers Thursday. This morning's Houston-Galveston AFD mentions a slow moving potent storm system next week.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight ensembles are beginning to suggest a rather big shift in the upper air pattern across North America. We have been under the influence of a rather stout Western/Central Ridge and the ensemble guidance is indicating a rather deep Western trough takes shape early next week with a couple of slow moving shortwaves that typically suggest a wet and potentially stormy pattern may develop. The MJO is in a favorable Phase 8 for the Eastern Pacific and the Western Hemisphere where we live, so we could see an active weather pattern begin to organize as there are no strong cold fronts expected to sweep well out into the Gulf. Pacific air should invade the West Coast later this week setting the stage for a potentially rainy period across the Western 2/3rds of Lower 48.

[jasons2k]

Was really hoping for rain tomorrow. At one time it was 60% for me, but it's been 20% for the last three days and not budging....

[BlueJay]

David Paul says we may need our umbrella to go vote tomorrow but should clear by 3'ish in the afternoon

[Katdaddy]

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A slight chance of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as the next front moves across SE TX which will be followed by more beautiful Spring weather. Highs may reach 80F Thursday before another front drops the highs to the mid 70s for the weekend under sunny skies. A slight risk area exists across the Lower MS Valley, OH Valley, and Central Gulf Coast this afternoon. A pattern change next week could bring flooding and severe weather across the Southern Plains including TX. The Spring severe weather season is here and Winter has left the building.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Weak cold front will cross the region today helping to bring temperatures back toward “normal”.

Upper air pattern with storm track well north of TX will allow a weak frontal boundary to cross the region today. Moisture is limited to the lowest levels of the atmosphere and the air mass is capped at the 800mb level which makes it hard for the formation of showers and thunderstorms. Would not be surprised to see a thin line of showers with the front, but expecting actual rainfall amounts to be less than .25 of an inch.

Drier and cooler air mass filters into the region tonight with lows falling back into the more normal 40’s and 50’s instead of the 60’s of late and highs in the lower 70’s instead of the lower 80’s. Similar weather will continue for the rest of the week and into this weekend with another front on Thursday afternoon.

Looking ahead, an upper level pattern change does appear to at least become a possibility toward the early to middle part of next week as an upper level trough develops over the SW US and into N MX. This will help draw deeper moisture into the region and allows a storm system to track across TX around next Tuesday and Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have been showing this storm system for several days and producing healthy amounts of rainfall and possibility severe weather…however trends of late have been for storm systems to actually track more northward and rainfall and severe weather to be displaced to our east and north. Will need to watch for such trend going forward, but the time period from the 8-10 could be fairly active.

[jasons2k]

Nada drop. Sprinkler time. If this is what we get during El Nino, I'm afraid to see what's gonna happen in the coming years ahead.

[DoctorMu]

Hardly a drop until the middle of next week.



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[Andrew]

Next week has some severe and maybe some flooding potential but right now the ejection of the trough is too messy to support this idea currently. That paired with the early morning timing of the event and I'm hesitant to pull the trigger on this idea. Fortunately no matter what time the front moves through, precipitation looks to accompany it which will be a large relief for many in SE Texas. We are starting to creep up in the drought monitor but luckily we are entering a rainier part of the year. By this weekend a better idea should shape up for Tuesday/Wednesday's event.

[Katdaddy]

Beautiful Spring weather the next several days with partly cloudy skies. The SPC will likely add a risk area from ETX into the MS Valley if models for next Tuesday if models continue to advertise severe weather early next week. Widespread rains across TX continue to look possible as we enter a more active weather pattern. By the weekend we will have a better idea on the details. From this morning's SPC Day 4-8 Convective Outlook:

TUESDAY /DAY 6/ QUALITY OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN WARM SECTOR FROM ERN TX/OK INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...AND SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTAKES WARM SECTOR. FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL...AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION. A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA WILL LIKELY BE INTRODUCED IN THE NEXT UPDATE IF MODELS CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE CONSISTENCY.

[srainhoutx]

Next week appears to have a lot of potential for strong, possibly severe thunderstorms across a good portion of our Region. We will need to monitor developments the next several days and seeing such a deep Western trough in early March with unidirectional winds at many levels tends to suggest a severe weather outbreak may be possible particularly along and East of the dryline across portions of Oklahoma, Eastern Texas into Arkansas and Louisiana.

[DoctorMu]

am concerned that the 10 year drought pattern, after a wet early Super El Nino spring last year, will re-affirm its grip (possibly aided by CC) where lows eject with energy to our north and eventually east. We see blustery SW wind and underperforming rain.

Tree planting on hold.


It is interesting that budding and bird migration are about 3 weeks ahead of last year's stubborn cool late winter spell.

[jasons2k]

I share your concern. Been saying it for years. It's gonna do a number on our trees and it appears the SW desert is expanding east. Is this climate change, the result of the ADO & PDO in unfavorable patterns, or some combination of the two?

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z guidance continues to advertise a potentially very active period beginning early next week across our Region. Even into the medium range, that pattern appears rather conducive for more opportunities of additional storm systems making their way from an active Pacific across California into the Southern Plains and Texas.

[BiggieSmalls]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Texas, as a state split by the "dry" line through America (see below) always been in the middle of a tug-of-war between the dry climates to the west and the rainy climates to the east? In other words...sometimes the eastern (populated) half of Texas is an extension of Louisiana and points east in terms of rainfall..and sometimes its more an extension of west Texas/New Mexico and points west. I think some Texans get trapped into thinking that it is "normal" to get 40+ inches of rain each and every year, and act shocked when it doesn't happen. IMO our climate in terms of rainfall just is what it is - periods of too dry or too wet extremes.

[BiggieSmalls]