March 2016 - Progressive Changeable Weather To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Katdaddy
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SE TX will be on the edge of the risk areas with most of the strong to severe storms being to the N and NE of the Houston-Galveston areas. Currently a foggy and misty morning across much of SE TX. The weekend weather continues to look nice with partly sunny skies and temps in the low to mid 70s.
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srainhoutx
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Morning briefing from Jeff:

large storm system over the SW US is placing TX under a favorable moist flow.

Several factors coming together to produce multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next 36 hours…with the best chances for thunderstorms and severe weather over N TX. Upper level jet carving into TX this morning on the SE side of the upper trough over the SW US starting to leading to large scale ascent over the central and NW part of the state. Strong warm air advection pattern at the surface has built a very moist low level air mass with dewpoints running in the low 70’s across much of the region. Weak lift is helping to generate widespread drizzle and a few light showers under a fairly strong capping inversion around 850mb. High dewpoint air mass over the cooler shelf water sis resulting in sea fog along the coast.

Not much hope for breaks in the thick low level deck today with a good chance of drizzle and light rain continuing through much of the day. This will greatly hamper the build up of instability in the low levels and certainly help maintain the strong cap aloft. Incoming short wave aimed at central and N TX early this afternoon will help to bring additional lift across the region, but think the cap will hold south of I-10. For areas north of I-10 the cap does weaken and convection allowing models indicate strong to possibly severe thunderstorms over N TX building S to SSW into the northern sections of SE TX in the 200-700pm time period. This threat area would be mainly north of a line from College Station to Huntsville to Lake Livingston. Main threats would be large hail and a couple of damaging wind gusts. Think this is a very conditional risk and an isolated threat.

For areas south of the line mentioned above mainly light showers streaming northward out of the Gulf of Mexico and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will be possible.

Thursday:
Surface cool front will move southward across TX tonight into Thursday with likely the development of a few showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. Meso scale models do not show much along the boundary on Thursday, but with somewhat favorable upper level flow aloft and good moisture in place can’t rule out some development…but we will still have capping aloft to contend with.

Friday-Saturday:
Front should progress to the coast or into the nearshore waters Friday into Saturday. With the main upper trough still lingering over the SW US/ N MX, expect a fair amount of mid and high level moisture to pour NE across the TX coastal plains while at the surface low level dry air mass pushes southward. May need to up rain chances on Friday especially if a couple of disturbances run across the area, but mid level based precipitation may have a difficult time reaching the ground depending on how much dry air moves in at the surface.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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Could be wrong. This system has Bust written all over it. The energy is swinging north like a familiar Spring Texas rough scenario.


I'll be out of town this weekend. I almost hate to miss a really nice Sat and Sunday. Here's hoping to avoid use of the sprinkler system Friday!



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
342 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FALLING INTO THE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED OVER WESTERN TEXAS PLACES
EASTERN TEXAS WITHIN A DOWNSTREAM WAA AIR MASS. LOWER 70F DEW
POINTS ADVECTING UP INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA...WITH
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DISTURBANCE RIDING INTO THE VALLEY PLACING
THE AREA UNDER AN INCREASED RISK OF EXPERIENCING LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING PRECIPITATION. SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW HAS
LEFT THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION CAPPED. THANKS TO OUR FRIENDS UP
AT TAMU FOR THE COURTESY BALLOON LAUNCH/SOUNDING...A 7-8H WARM
NOSE CERTAINLY EXISTS BUT...IF THE SHORTWAVE CAN INITIATE SOME
LIFT...PARCELS WOULD BE ENTERING NEAR DRY ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. BEGINNING TO SEE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY BLOSSOM UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...ISOLATED THUNDER (MAYBE ELEVATED?)
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS BEFORE THE BEST MID-UPPER
DYNAMICS OF LLJ/DIFFULENCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. OVERCAST...WITH
AREAS OF SOUTHERN FA FOG (OCCASIONALLY LOCALLY DENSE)...WILL BE
THE MAINSTAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A NORTHEASTERN
LIFTING/SHEARING SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX EARLY
TOMORROW WILL PRODUCE A DIFFUSE FROPA THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PASS
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING...LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GULF
WINDS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR EITHER MIST/DRIZZLE...A
PASSING LIGHT SHOWER...OR MORE (FURTHER INTERIOR) PERIODS OF RAIN
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WILL AGAIN BE IN THURSDAY`S AFTERNOON FORECAST.
SOUTHERN COUNTY RAIN CHANCES STAY ALIVE FRIDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVERRUN NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...POSSIBLY GENERATING A
LOW QPF-PRODUCING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIGHT RAIN SCENARIO. THICK
OVERCAST WILL PROVIDE OVERNIGHT VERY MILD UPPER 60 MINIMUM TEMPS...
POST-FROPA MIDDLE 40S (INLAND) TO MID 50S (COAST) BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOONS WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TOMORROW
...MEAN MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY.

AS A LONGWAVE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND
...REGIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL FORTIFY A MUCH DRIER
PATTERN. TRANSITORY 5H RIDGING PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUILDS CONFIDENCE THAT SE TX WILL BE IN A
MOSTLY CLEAR/NO RAINFALL SITUATION FROM SATURDAY ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AT THIS TIME. A TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE FORECAST WITH SUBSEQUENT
DAYS WARMING FROM THE WEEKEND`S MID TO UPPER 70S INTO THE LOWER
80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND...EAST INTO LOUISIANA BY EARLY
TUESDAY AFFORDING RETURN FLOW. WE WILL GET CLIPPED BY A CONTINENTAL
BASED DRY AND COLD AIR MASS SATURDAY THAT WILL MOST BE FELT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NON-METRO/COASTAL MINIMUM TEMP READINGS WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S...LOWER 50S AROUND THE CITY/MIDDLE 50S AT COAST.
ALL AND ALL...QUITE THE 180 DEGREE TURNAROUND FROM TODAY AND
TOMORROW`S MUCKY AND WET CONDITIONS VERSUS THAT OF THE FIRST
WEEKEND IN APRIL`S (FORECAST) PRISTINE WEATHER. 31
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DoctorMu
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Andrew wrote:Largest lift still remains off to the north and northeast for tomorrows storm event. I suspect the added cloud cover that has been so present today will only help to limit things tomorrow. One thing that is interesting though is how much moisture is present out there, been a pretty steady stream of mist/ light rain for much of the day.


Looks like you nailed it for CLL.
unome
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the slow, steady drizzle is the best way to get the water to where it's needed - I love days like this

sunshine just around the corner !

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BlueJay
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March 2016 was wonderful! I super enjoyed the end of winter and beginning of spring that this month brings. Now, on to April 2016!!
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