February 2016: Quiet Warm Weather To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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wxman57
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What all this means is that we could see a low in the upper 20s around the 11th-12th of February. The pattern doesn't look like it would support precipitation in the cold air.
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srainhoutx
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The overnight ensembles and Teleconnection Indices are suggesting a colder regime may well become established near the mid February timeframe. The ECMWF Seasonal Ensembles continue to suggest the MJO may return to a more amplified orbit as the month of February begins. As wxman57 stated, we may not see much in the way of moisture when the coldest air arrives, but there are uncertainties in the extended range that we just cannot predict beyond 3 to 5 days when the Hemispheric Pattern is reshuffling. Some of the operational and ensemble guidance do indicate the potential of a Coastal wave developing as the coldest air pushes South out of the Plains, but that is way out in the future to accurately predict regarding our sensible weather for February 8th and beyond.
01302016 CPC Day 11+ Super Ensemble Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif
01302016 AO ao_sprd2.gif
01302016 Tele Indices 4panel.png
01292016 Euro Seasonal MJO EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif
01302016 06Z GEFS 240 gfs-ens_apcpn24_namer_40.png
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srainhoutx
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Mike Ventrice just sent out a couple of tweets:
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 25m25 minutes ago
Time to get PUMPED for Winter. BIG, sustainable cold wave coming in February. That 2nd week... CONUS wide cold
01302016 M Ventrice EC EM untitled.png
01302016 M Ventrice EC EM 2 untitled.png
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 13m13 minutes ago
Ridge to build from California up to the N. Pole and into Greenland. This will open the arctic gates for brutal cold
01302016 M Ventrice ECMWF Ensembles untitled.png
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BiggieSmalls
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Are we talking teens in DFW, mid 20s in Houston if this pans out?
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srainhoutx
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BiggieSmalls wrote:Are we talking teens in DFW, mid 20s in Houston if this pans out?
The 00Z GFS was suggesting mid 20's for DFW, Mid/Upper 20's of Austin and Upper 20's for IAH. Still too far out to know exactly what our sensible weather will be though.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z GEFS suggests cold air building across the Plains from Canada with a rather deep SW to NE cold upper trough overhead after the cold air arrives. The GFS ensemble members are suggesting a rather noisy sub tropical jet could be overhead during that timeframe with perhaps a bit of moisture. Too soon to know what the sensible weather with be more than 10 days out, but the Global Ensembles have been advertising this potential for several days, so it will be interesting to monitor as we move into the next week timeframe. Get out and enjoy the warm weather while we have it. I definitely looks like some chilly air is heading our way mid next week and possibly into mid February.
01302016 12Z GEFS 264 gfs-ens_z500a_sd_namer_45.png
01302016 12Z GEFS 264 gfs-ens_z500_vort_namer_45.png
01302016 12Z GEFS 264 gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_45.png
01302016 12Z GEFS 264 gfs-ens_apcpn24_namer_44.png
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z ECMWF is looking very similar to the GEFS around the 240 hour timeframe. A deep cold upper Western trough with a potent storm digging into Northern Mexico with a good shot of cold air moving South out of the Plains into Texas.
01302016 12Z Euro 240 sfcmslpna.png
01302016 12Z Euro 240 500hcfsranomna.png
01302016 12Z Euro 240 850tcfsranomna.png
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srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z ECMWF is looking very similar to the GEFS around the 240 hour timeframe. A deep cold upper Western trough with a potent storm digging into Northern Mexico with a good shot of cold air moving South out of the Plains into Texas.
01302016 12Z Euro 240 sfcmslpna.png
01302016 12Z Euro 240 500hcfsranomna.png
01302016 12Z Euro 240 850tcfsranomna.png

Does this cold air move east into Louisiana? Thanks.
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srainhoutx
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harpman wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z ECMWF is looking very similar to the GEFS around the 240 hour timeframe. A deep cold upper Western trough with a potent storm digging into Northern Mexico with a good shot of cold air moving South out of the Plains into Texas.


Does this cold air move east into Louisiana? Thanks.
It appears that it will, IF the longer range guidance is correct.
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harpman
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Thank you for your response. I follow your forum all the time from SE La.
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