JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Ounce
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Tornado Warning box just popped up for an area south of Alice on US-281. Alice is already in a Severe Thunderstorm Warning box.

That area is in a convergence of storms from the west and storms from the south.
Last edited by Ounce on Wed Jun 17, 2015 5:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Portastorm
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Numerous reports of high water throughout downtown Austin as well as north central and east central parts of the metro area. Anywhere from 1-3" of rain has fallen in these areas in the last few hours.
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srainhoutx
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06172015 mcd0236.gif
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0236
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
615 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 172215Z - 180315Z

SUMMARY...STATIONARY/BACKBUILDING/MERGING CELLS ALONG NORTH-SOUTH
SURFACE TROF/FEEDER BAND. LOCALLY EXTREME TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 5"
ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROF FROM THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL TOWARD LAREDO IS ACTING AS A STRONG AND
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION.
GIVEN THE TROF IT IS RELATIVELY STATIONARY WITHIN VERY CONFLUENT
LOW LEVEL FLOW...CONVECTIVE INITIATION REGIONS HAVE REMAINED
STATIONARY TOWARD THE LINE. FURTHER SOUTH...INFLUENCE FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM COASTAL CONVECTION PAIRED WITH LIKELY SEA
BREEZE... IS ALLOWING FOR THE TROF TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE WEST A
BIT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TROF NEAR FROM AUS TOWARD SAT.
FURTHER NORTH THE CONFLUENCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROF ALLOWS FOR
TRAINING OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM TRI TO AROUND ACT. IT IS
EAST OF THE TROF THAT CELLS CAN TAP AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITIES
RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG IN THE NORTH TO 3000 J/KG NEAR SAT.
ADDITIONALLY THESE CELLS ARE ORIENTED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF 2" PER GPS NETWORK. WV LOOP AS WELL
AS LAYERED TPW SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL UPPER (ABOVE 300MB) AND
LOWER LEVEL (850MB) MOISTURE IS INCREASING RELATIVELY SPEAKING
INTO THE ENTIRE BAND. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE/FLUX
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WITH THESE CELLS WITH
RATES TO 2.5-3"/HR LIKELY.

HI-RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS STRONGLY POINT TO THIS
SCENARIO...WITH HIGHER RAINFALL SIGNALS WITHIN THE BAND FROM TPL
TO TRI AS IT TRAINS NEARLY OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH TOTALS IN THE 3-5" RANGE. WHILE FURTHER SOUTH CELLS
ARE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED...GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SIMILAR PATTERN
WITH POCKETS OF 3-5" AS WELL. HOWEVER...GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVED
RAINFALL RATES EXPECT THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE WITH LOCALLY EXTREME
TOTALS BEING POSSIBLE.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...SJT...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
521 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 519 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY. STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY FLOOD WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BEACH CITY...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...OLD RIVER-WINFREE...COVE...
HIGH ISLAND...BOLIVAR PENINSULA...WINNIE...CRYSTAL BEACH...
STOWELL...GILCHRIST...ROLLOVER PASS...OAK ISLAND...WALLISVILLE AND
HANKAMER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.
Poltracker
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The storms to the east seem to be back building into our area.
BlueJay
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nuby3 wrote:upgraded again from 80 percent chance of heavy rain to 100% chance for tonight in the woodlands.. interesting
Interesting. i thought that David Paul's 5:00 pm forecast maps showed us to be pretty dry tonight...
We will see.
nuby3
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Poltracker wrote:The storms to the east seem to be back building into our area.
I've been watching that too
Poltracker
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It's pouring here in DP. Street has a lot of water starting to meet in the middle (I am at the high end). Everything is saturated so it is all running off.
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djjordan
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6.05" of rain in two hours in Alice Tx!!! Yep that'll cause some Flash Flooding. Numerous water rescues ongoing in Alice right now according to NWS CRP
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Paul Robison

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Bill, located inland over northeastern Texas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.


SHHHHH! The tropics are sleeping. Don't wake them up! (LOL!)
Paul Robison

srainhoutx wrote:Keeping an eye on the heavy training convective complex along the Middle Texas Coast. The feeder band is slowly shifting E from our Western zones toward Western Harris and Fort Bend Counties. The winds have increased significantly the past hour or so in NW Harris County. Gusting above 30 MPH. The Weather Prediction Center is suggesting an additional 2-5 inches of rainfall may be possible today across areas W of the I-45 Corridor. A Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been outlined basically W of I-45 with a High Risk for the Dallas area. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall continues along and East of I-45. A Tornado Watch continues for Harris, Ft Bend, Brazoria, Montgomery, Walker Counties on to the West. The Brazos River Valley has been pummeled overnight with very heavy rainfall. Flash Flood Warnings continue for the Counties along that River. Very heavy thunderstorms are beginning to move inland in Matagorda County. Could be a rough morning commute. Also appears a meso low has developed near Victoria generally moving NE toward Metro Houston. A new feeder band is setting up across West Galveston Bay. That one will also need to be monitored this morning as well.

Looking ahead for the remainder of the week, the various computer schemes suggest an unsettled pattern will remain in place with a pesky shear axis and weakness continuing between the upper ridge to our East and additional mid/upper level moisture associated with Carlos being pulled NE across Mexico and Texas. Long fetch deep tropical moisture looks to continue streaming N along the Western periphery of the upper ridge across the SE United States. We may see a drying trend by early next week, but there are some indications additional moisture from the Western Caribbean may continue streaming into the Western Gulf and embedded shortwave disturbances move across the Central Plains bringing additional daytime showers and storms to our Region.

Image

Sounds like life as usual to me.
nuby3
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BlueJay wrote:
nuby3 wrote:upgraded again from 80 percent chance of heavy rain to 100% chance for tonight in the woodlands.. interesting
Interesting. i thought that David Paul's 5:00 pm forecast maps showed us to be pretty dry tonight...
We will see.
pops went back down to 50% for woodlands
Paul Robison

Oh, I forgot to ask you what the indications you refer to are in your previous post, Srainhoutex. Could you please share that with me?
davidiowx
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Paul Robison wrote:Oh, I forgot to ask you what the indications you refer to are in your previous post, Srainhoutex. Could you please share that with me?
You are talking about a post that was made like 15+ hours ago. Why would you even ask about it now? In case you didn't know, a lot has changed since then. :idea:
Paul Robison

davidiowx wrote:
Paul Robison wrote:Oh, I forgot to ask you what the indications you refer to are in your previous post, Srainhoutex. Could you please share that with me?
You are talking about a post that was made like 15+ hours ago. Why would you even ask about it now? In case you didn't know, a lot has changed since then. :idea:
Disregard previous post.
Baseballdude2915
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Radar returns are dying by the hour, looks like we are done with the effects of Bill.
GFS shows a shower or two over the next few days then normal high and dry pattern resumes.
Should finally go back to regularly scheduled programming, but glad to see this board lively during an event like Bill.
Paul Robison

Baseballdude2915 wrote:Radar returns are dying by the hour, looks like we are done with the effects of Bill.
GFS shows a shower or two over the next few days then normal high and dry pattern resumes.
Should finally go back to regularly scheduled programming, but glad to see this board lively during an event like Bill.

Y'all did a splendid job. If only New Orleans had had a board like this one when Katrina hit them.....
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Katdaddy
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A beautiful calm radar across Houston metro.
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djjordan
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Sorry but nothing quiet about the radar here at my location..... Flash flood warning just issued
Montgomery, Tx
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
nuby3
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Location: THE WOODLANDS PARKWAY and FM 2978
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING Montgomery. pouring at my house
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