JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Rip76
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Further West than I would have imagined.

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srainhoutx
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The 12Z suite of deterministic guidance all suggest a Middle/Upper Texas Coast landfall with this disturbance. Copious amounts of rainfall continue to be advertised by the computer guidance along and to the East of where the low center tracks.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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NWS Austin/San Antonio is recommending people not travel around the San Antonio/Bexar County area. San Antonio Fire Department is making numerous high water rescues from stalled vehicles.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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06142015 mcd0212.gif
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0212
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 141837Z - 142237Z

SUMMARY...A GROWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER BEXAR COUNTY IS
BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE/GROW INTO AN AREA WHERE IT RAINED HEAVY
THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION WAS SEEN
IN THE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. NEW CONVECTION HAS
FLARED ALONG ITS WESTERN FLANK, WHICH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHIFTING
SLOWLY EASTWARD AND/OR EXPANDING OUTWARD. FORWARD PROPAGATING
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE LIGHT, WITH 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS LINES
INDICATING A SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY BEING THE MOST LIKELY.

INFLOW INTO THE REGION IS 20-25 KTS, AND PER RECENT RAP FORECASTS,
SHOULD REMAIN STEADY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY, WHICH SHOULD ALSO ALLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT
MORE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AN INVADING MCV CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE
COULD BE AIDING THIS COMPLEX'S DEVELOPMENT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES (FFGS) SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION
IN THIS AREA, WHICH DROPPED 6" OF RAIN LOCALLY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2" SUPPORT HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5", WHICH
WOULD EXCEED THE FFGS. SOME OF THE LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
URBAN, WHICH WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO STAND RAIN RATES THIS HIGH.
THERE IS A SIGNAL WITHIN THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF 3-4" IN THIS REGION. THE FLASH FLOOD RISK IS HEIGHTENED IN
THIS AREA.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
144 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

GUADALUPE TX-COMAL TX-BEXAR TX-
144 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WEST CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN COMAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EASTERN BEXAR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 141 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN LIVE OAK...CIBOLO AND GARDEN RIDGE. THIS
WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
DOPPLER RADAR AND RAIN GAUGES INDICATE UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...UNIVERSAL CITY...SCHERTZ...CIBOLO...
LIVE OAK...KIRBY...SELMA...WINDCREST...GARDEN RIDGE...ST. HEDWIG...
ELMENDORF...CHINA GROVE...MARION...SANTA CLARA...CALAVERAS LAKE...
NORTHCLIFF...ZUEHL...CONVERSE AND BRACKEN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Andrew
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So current model consensus still indicate enough development for a TD or even a weak TS. What differs between the global models though is the overall movement. The GFS camp indicate that 91L will have a faster landfall sometime midday on Tuesday, while the ECMWF indicate a Wednesday landfall a little farther north. Either way both models indicate the weakness in ridging will be present for much of the weak. The concern here is the breakdown in steering towards Tuesday midday. If this occurs, a temporary stall or slow down could occur leading to a real flooding concern. The GFS is the most conservative with totals across the region with 5-10 inches of rain, while the ECMWF indicate a narrow band of 15 inches of rain just to the southwest of Harris County. With current visible satellite analysis, it is clear that this disturbance is rather large. I would side more with the ECMWF on this one. Keep an eye out tonight and tomorrow will be an active period on the board.
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rnmm
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A little more North as into Louisiana for a direct hit?
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
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srainhoutx
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rnmm wrote:A little more North as into Louisiana for a direct hit?
The Euro suggested a landfall near Matagorda Bay (Bay City). The guidance is looking fairly straight forward into the Middle/Upper Texas Coast with the possible center of this system.

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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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davidiowx
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Is it me or does it appear to have sped up quite a bit?
rnmm
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srainhoutx wrote:
rnmm wrote:A little more North as into Louisiana for a direct hit?
The Euro suggested a landfall near Matagorda Bay (Bay City). The guidance is looking fairly straight forward into the Middle/Upper Texas Coast with the possible center of this system.

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Thank you! And thank you all for being patient with me! :)
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
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