May 2015 Record Setting May Rainfall Totals For Region

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BLANCO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL GILLESPIE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1251 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HYE...OR 16 MILES EAST OF
FREDERICKSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ROCKY CREEK AROUND 1255 PM CDT.
SANDY AROUND 105 PM CDT.
JOHNSON CITY AROUND 110 PM CDT.
ROUND MOUNTAIN AND CYPRESS MILL AROUND 115 PM CDT.

[srainhoutx]

Emergency Manager reports Tornado on the ground at the LBJ Ranch.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
108 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BURNET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 108 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF LAKE VICTOR...OR 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BUCHANAN DAM...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN BURNET COUNTY.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0127
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 251808Z - 252308Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A PREDOMINANTLY FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS CONTINUES TO MATURE WHILE APPROACHING I-35...WHILE ALSO
BEGINNING TO DISPLAY QUASI-STATIONARY OR BACK BUILDING
CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN DALLAS FORT WORTH AND SAN ANTONIO. THE
MCS IS MOVING THROUGH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
NEARING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AND ALSO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT DRAPED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.

A COMBINATION OF LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AS
WELL AS GLOBAL AND HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FORMING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE MCS CONTINUES TO MATURE AND MOVES EASTWARD. GIVEN EXTREME
CAPES...HOURLY RATES OF 2 INCHES WILL BE EASY TO ACHIEVE...WITH
SLOWER MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF EVEN MORE. THE TWO MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS FOR FLASH FLOODING APPEAR TO BE IN VICINITY OF
THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE MESOLOW NEAR THE
RED RIVER.

JAMES

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
119 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TXZ195>197-251915-
BURLESON TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-
119 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BURLESON...WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWESTERN BRAZOS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 117 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BURTON...OR 7 MILES WEST OF BRENHAM...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.
THERE ARE ADDITIONAL CELLS WITHIN THE ADVISORY PULSING UP AS WELL.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
REMEMBER...THE GROUND IS MOIST AND TREES WILL BE MORE PRONE TO FALL
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTERN BRYAN...CALDWELL...SOMERVILLE...SNOOK...BURTON...LAKE
SOMERVILLE DAM...DEANVILLE...CHRIESMAN...QUARRY AND LYONS.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN OK/CENTRAL AND NRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 211...

VALID 251854Z - 252100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 211 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK CONTINUES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADO/HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WW AREA...AS THE
WELL-ORGANIZED BOWING MCS SHIFTS ENEWD.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED BOW ECHO/MCS
MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL TX ATTM...WITH NRN PORTIONS OF
THE LINE APPROACHING SWRN/S CENTRAL OK. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH AN AXIS OF MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WHICH IS
FUELING INTENSE CONVECTION -- AND IS BEING AIDED BY ENHANCED WSWLY
REAR INFLOW AT BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESO/CONVECTIVE SCALES.

IN ADDITION...MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF SRN
PORTIONS OF THE LINE INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY REGION...WHERE RECENT
TORNADO REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. OVERALL...THE MOIST/UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE KINEMATICS SUGGEST
CONTINUED/RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADO/HAIL POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 05/25/2015


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
159 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BURNET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 159 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAGO VISTA...OR 13 MILES WEST OF CEDAR
PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
LIBERTY HILL AROUND 220 PM CDT.
LEANDER AROUND 225 PM CDT.
ROUND ROCK...SUN CITY AND GEORGETOWN DAM AROUND 240 PM CDT.
GEORGETOWN...SERENADA AND WEIR AROUND 245 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
JONESTOWN...BRIARCLIFF...JONAH...SEWARD JUNCTION AND BRUSHY CREEK.

[srainhoutx]

New Mesoscale Discussion suggests SE Texas may see a Watch coming.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...

VALID 251910Z - 252045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...DMGG WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL
PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TORNADO WATCH 210.
AREAS TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 210 ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL
CLUSTER ACROSS BURNET COUNTY MOVING INTO TRAVIS/WILLIAMSON COUNTIES
TX...UNDERGOING SEVERAL INTERACTIONS WITH ANCILLARY CELL DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL/TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE INFLUX OF RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LCLS...AND 100-200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM
SRH...GIVEN THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE. WEAKER
CONVECTION DEVELOPING VIA LOW-LEVEL WAA ALSO HAS DISPLAYED
INTERMITTENT/BRIEF ROTATION.

TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AS PRIMARY SVR THREAT APPROACHES ERN EDGE
OF TORNADO WATCH 210 FOR A POSSIBLE NEW WW INTO SOUTHEAST TX.
CONSOLIDATION WITH SRN EDGE OF QLCS ACROSS CNTRL TX IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AN INCREASING DMGG
WIND THREAT.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Radar shows rapid development of training excessive rainfall from north of San Antonio to west of Austin ahead of eastward moving line of thunderstorms and cluster of tornadic supercells over SC TX. Strong SE low level flow is pumping copious moisture NW into C TX feeding training supercells and thunderstorm cells. Given saturated grounds and rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour with these storms rapid flash flooding of creeks and rivers will be possible where extended period of training establishes. Current radar trends suggest at least this is possible along and just west of I-35 from NE of San Antonio to Austin to south of Waco.

As experienced Sunday morning the rivers in this area are capable of tremendous rises in a short period of time with excessive rainfall.

Thunderstorm activity at current is focused across:

Llano River
Pedernales River
Blanco River
Middle Colorado River
San Gabriel River
Little River

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
218 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
LLANO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
BURNET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 218 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
KINGSLAND...MARBLE FALLS...BURNET...LLANO...BERTRAM...BUCHANAN
DAM...GAINESVILLE...GRANITE SHOALS...HORSESHOE BAY...MEADOWLAKES...
HIGHLAND HAVEN...BLUFFTON...VALLEY SPRING...OXFORD...LONE GROVE...
OATMEAL...SHADY GROVE...INKS LAKE STATE PARK...STOLZ AND WATSON.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

[Katdaddy]

I would not be surprised to see a Tornado Watch issued for SE TX shortly. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...

VALID 251910Z - 252045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...DMGG WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL
PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TORNADO WATCH 210.
AREAS TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 210 ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL
CLUSTER ACROSS BURNET COUNTY MOVING INTO TRAVIS/WILLIAMSON COUNTIES
TX...UNDERGOING SEVERAL INTERACTIONS WITH ANCILLARY CELL DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL/TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE INFLUX OF RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LCLS...AND 100-200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM

[Katdaddy]

Tornado Watch soon for SE TX. Be weather aware this afternoon and evening.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK/SWRN AR/E TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251935Z - 252030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF A WELL-ORGANIZED MCS ACROSS
CENTRAL TX AND MORE ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE
LINE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL ACROSS THE MD AREA. NEW TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- INCLUDING A WELL-ORGANIZED BOWING MCS AND
INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE.
THE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND ARE BEING AIDED BY A MID-LEVEL JET STREAM CROSSING
CENTRAL TX S OF A NWRN TX/SWRN OK VORT MAX. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT E

[Portastorm]

We've had a lot of heavy rain and a few broad cyclonic circulations spotted in and around the Austin area. I actually saw one relatively close to my house in SW Austin. But no tornadoes on the ground in the AUS area yet, thankfully. But flash flood/flood threat is real here.

[srainhoutx]

[Rip76]

Looks like everything that was starting to pop close to us is getting pulled northward.

[Katdaddy]

Be weather aware this afternoon and evening.

[Katdaddy]

So far so good Rip76 for us along the Upper TX Coast. Watching the radar for development to the SW.

[srainhoutx]

Taking a break gang...Update from Jeff:

Numerous supercells with strong rotation have developed across C TX this afternoon. Currently 5 tornado warnings are in effect and several of these cells have been long tracked supercells.

Boundary layer continues with rich influx of tropical moisture making for low cloud bases in a moderately sheared air mass which is very unstable. HP supercells continue to develop in SSW to NNE fashion just west of I-35 with tornado threat is maximized along with significant flash flooding threat.

Portions of NW/N SE TX may be included in new tornado watch as the central TX activity advances slowly eastward toward SE TX. There is a general decrease in shear values over SE TX, but the air mass locally is unstable with CAPE of 3000 J/kg+ and rich dewpoint air support of HP supercells. Main threat will be along and NW of a line from Columbus to Huntsville.

Additionally, HP supercell training continues now along I-35 and west from NNE of San Antonio to Austin. Very heavy rainfall of 2-3 inches per hour is occurring under these storms. Several counties are under flash flood warnings and flash flooding is developing quickly. Rivers will begin rapid rises as run-off reaches the mainstems. Flooding will be possible along several of the rivers and creeks from San Antonio to Austin over the next few hours.

[Katdaddy]

Tornado Watch issued for NW portions of SE TX.

[TXStormjg]

I am wondering if we are going to see ANY rain here in NW Houston...it seems to disapear before it gets here.