Snowman wrote:now correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like most of the rain is heading for western Louisiana. It looks like we may just get the edge of it in southeast Texas
Looks to be that way - most of the heavier stuff is in the GOM - off our coast here.
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Snowman wrote:now correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like most of the rain is heading for western Louisiana. It looks like we may just get the edge of it in southeast Texas
Looks to be that way - most of the heavier stuff is in the GOM - off our coast here.
Well even if the rain is a bust at least we have some cloud cover to keep us cool for a couple of days!
The general thinking is the cloud debris left from the early morning storms stabilized the atmosphere over Houston. The guidance and the NWS offices from San Antonio/Austin/Corpus and Houston/Galveston are suggesting a big surge of greater moisture from the Western Gulf arriving around mid night and very heavy rainfall of an additional 4 to 6 inches with some isolated totals of 6 to 10 inches possible as a strong convective complex develops tonight. We will see.
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Unexpected? Man - look through most of the posts on here....one thing is CERTAIN....NOTHING is CERTAIN when it comes to weather forecasting....NOTHING. (examples through countless posts lol)
so - take MOST everything on here with a grain of salt....it's guesstimating at best....but all in all - it's a fun read!
yeah we are caught in no-man's land today due to the stable air and everything down in the Gulf. Keep a close watch because things will likely change overnight...
HGX seems to be going with the flow and taking a watch and nowcast attitude. Not overly confident. Some areas may see alot, other areas may see a little. Depends on how everything continues to unfold.
DISCUSSION...
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN...BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES FELL OVER THE
NORTHWEST ZONES FROM CALDWELL TO BRYAN TO CROCKETT WITH
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE MORNING
CONVECTION THAT ROLLED THROUGH HOUSTON STABILIZED THINGS AND SENT
A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF. A LARGE MCS DEVELOPED ON
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THIS FEATURE CUT OFF THE INFLOW AND
PRODUCED THICK CLOUD COVER TO RETARD HEATING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN...LIMITING HEATING. THAT SAID...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA AND WEST OF MATAGORDA
BAY. BOTH AREAS SHOW INCREASING SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SO NEED TO
WATCH CLEARING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. ANY APPRECIABLE HEATING WILL
TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE LESS BULLISH WITH
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT NOT SURE WHY. PW VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR 2.00 INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE MIDDLE 80S. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE AFTN. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS AND MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SINCE THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY DID NOT RECEIVE
MUCH RAIN IN PRIOR DAYS AND THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN
YESTERDAY DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL TODAY. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS STILL REASONABLY HIGH SO WILL FOREGO THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DRIER FOR THURSDAY SO IT IS
WITH SHAKY CONFIDENCE THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS MENTIONED.
PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.90 INCHES ON FRIDAY WHICH IS
STILL PLENTY MOIST. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S WHICH IS
REACHABLE SO STILL EXPECTING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
HEATING. PW VALUES DROP A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE SOUNDING BETWEEN 900-700 MB.
TRIMMED POPS BACK A LITTLE ON SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUN/MON. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES AND RAISED
TEMPS DUE TO INCREASING 850 MB TEMPS AND BUILDING HEIGHTS. 43
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
451 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN GOLIAD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL VICTORIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 515 PM CDT
* AT 449 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FANNIN...OR
10 MILES NORTHEAST OF GOLIAD...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
COLETO CREEK PARK...ANDER...WESER...MISSION VALLEY AND SCHROEDER
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/25/14 2209Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 2130ZVOGT MILLER
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...OUN...CRP...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT... SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION/ HVY RAIN
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AS LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WEAKENS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF, NEW CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG A SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TX/SRN OK. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A S/WV EMBEDDED IN THE
500 MB FLOW LIFTING NWD INTO SOUTHERN TX, LIKELY AIDING IN THE NEW
CONVECTIVE FORMATION. UPSTREAM, A 40 KT UL JET IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
TX, CREATING AN AREA OF UL DIFFLUENCE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. THE BEST SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS IN SOUTHERN TX INTO THE TX GULF COASTAL AREAS. GFS
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY C-VECTORS OPPOSE THE CELL MOTION ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX.... LEADING TO SLOW-MOVING HVY RAINFALL ACROSS THAT AREA.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2210-0110Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AREA OF PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
WHERE ONE FFW HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. BUT AS THE S/WV LIFTS NWD, AND THE
UL JET PUSHES E, EXPECT MORE CONVECTION IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TX INVOF BANDERA
COUNTY (GOES-R EXPERIMENTAL CI ALGORITHM SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
FORMING IN THIS AREA AS WELL).... SLOWEST MOVING HVY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY NEAR THE TX GULF COAST AND PTS NW. GIVEN THE HIGH-MOISTURE SOURCE
IN PLACE, 1-2"/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Keep a close watch tonight - it could get interesting. GOM blob is dying-off and inflow should resume. The atmosphere didn't recover enough for storms this PM, but now it will be primed for some overnight rains instead. I already see what could be the beginnings of training bands forming over Harris County now.
