March: Comfortable Weekend Weather & Warming Trend

[cristina6871]

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

I looked at them - it looks like it might just "skirt" Spring and Woodlands......or am I looking at it wrong.

[Andrew]

Anyone in Austin please update the board what you get in the next couple of hours because that will be important for us downstream. Thanks!

[Portastorm]

Radar trends paint a rather ominous picture. Elevated storms out west continue to track east and they are initializing a lot earlier than models expected. Houston metro area should watch out because some of the highest totals could be in that general area. Wherever banding sets up will be key. Going to be an interesting night ahead.

I'm wondering if the earlier onset of precip means we dodge somewhat of a bullet here in Austin. Temps still in the mid 30s. If this disturbance is the leading edge of the upper level system approaching from the west ... perhaps the heaviest precip occurs on the front end and we end up with less frozen stuff. Just speculating.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff regarding the new Winter Storm Warnings just issued:

Winter Storm Warning issued for Harris, Liberty, Polk, Walker, and San Jacinto counties in additional to previous warned counties

Things going downhill very quickly this evening. Surface temperatures already freezing across northwest Harris County and significant precipitation approaching from the west. BUSH IAH is already 33 with a dewpoint of 25 leaving plenty of room for evaporational cooling into the upper 20’s. Models have been and continue to be way too warm and suspect onset of freezing precipitation in the next 1-2 hours which requires the move up start time of the warning to 900pm.

Will bump ice accumulation into the .10-.20 inch range north of I-10 given earlier onset of precipitation. Think temperatures will likely fall into the upper 20’s north of US 59 tonight making for efficient ice accumulation. Looking at radar trends west of the area showing significant convection…am concerned about potentially moderate to at times heavy freezing rain in the warning area.

Will update again by 1000pm given the potential more significant impacts we are facing.

[Portastorm]

Anyone in Austin please update the board what you get in the next couple of hours because that will be important for us downstream. Thanks!

I'll keep y'all posted ... at the moment, hearing thunder at the house with convection approaching from the west/southwest. Temperature is 36 degrees.

[tireman4]

Well Mr. T., that answered our reasoning as to why HGX pulled the trigger earlier than we first figured (9 pm versus 11 pm). This might be a long night for many in the Houston metro area. Please folks, stay tuned to all outlets. Use your best judgement. Be safe.

[Belmer]

This is setting up to be an interesting event that seems to be unfolding quite earlier than models predicted across Central and SE TX. This could really end up being a significant winter event for some folks. Be safe everyone!

[Brandy3835]

Do you think Jefferson County will be upgraded to a warning?

[sambucol]

and Chambers?

[ndale]

Radar trends paint a rather ominous picture. Elevated storms out west continue to track east and they are initializing a lot earlier than models expected. Houston metro area should watch out because some of the highest totals could be in that general area. Wherever banding sets up will be key. Going to be an interesting night ahead.

I'm wondering if the earlier onset of precip means we dodge somewhat of a bullet here in Austin. Temps still in the mid 30s. If this disturbance is the leading edge of the upper level system approaching from the west ... perhaps the heaviest precip occurs on the front end and we end up with less frozen stuff. Just speculating.

Srain mentioned in a post ealier today about a secondary disturbance around Del Rio at the time. I thought that is what this activity is to be followed later tonight by the short wave that was over Tucson at the time. Anything falling here in Pflugerville may be a problem, we are sitting at 32 degrees right now.

[sambucol]

31 now. Baytown.

[Paul Robison]

There goes our electricity!

We'll need accumulations over 0.25" to be concerned about that. This is not in the forecast currently.

No, but Jeff just mentioned .10-.20' in the forecast update. Wouldn't that be enough to pull Houston's plug?

[cristina6871]

This is setting up to be an interesting event that seems to be unfolding quite earlier than models predicted across Central and SE TX. This could really end up being a significant winter event for some folks. Be safe everyone!

That's what I was thinking......the previous events may have been "warnings." I may not be getting much sleep and will probably be up very early to watch the first news cast! Thankfully I will not have to get out tomorrow.

[Ptarmigan]

I get this feeling, this could be the biggest freezing rain of the season. I hope I am wrong.

[TXStormjg]

Sleeting in hockley. Ice accumalating on the car. nice cell of rain hitting us now

[davidiowx]

I get this feeling, this could be the biggest freezing rain of the season. I hope I am wrong.

You aren't the only one with that feeling. Tonight will be fun to see unfold to say the least.

[Ptarmigan]

You aren't the only one with that feeling. Tonight will be fun to see unfold to say the least.

I have not heard of any closures or delays yet. That is very worrisome.

[biffb816]

I imagine after the last two ice events not really panning out, they will wait til the last minute to call for closures this time.

[jgreak]

I think many of the school districts are wary of pulling the plug - I think a lot of closures will start falling around 5AM tomorrow morning

[srainhoutx]

Report: Freezing rain in Burleson County in Summerville via PD.