March: Comfortable Weekend Weather & Warming Trend

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Afternoon Update from Jeff:

Severe thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

A strong storm system currently moving through the SW US will eject across TX on Sunday. At the surface strong southerly flow is pumping Gulf moisture northward from the Bay of Campeche, while to the north a strong late season arctic high pressure dome is moving southward down the plains. Impressive cold front will slice across the region late Sunday afternoon returning winter to the area for much of next week.

Upper level system currently over the SW US will shear into TX on Sunday with fairly strong dynamics forecasted aloft. Low level jet increases to near 40kts from Matagorda Bay NNE across SE TX by early Sunday afternoon. Increased dewpoints in the mid to upper 60’s and steepening lapse rates support instability values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg of CAPE by mid afternoon. Think mid level warm layer (cap) will hold through at least 1-2pm and then begin to erode from both increasing lift and modest surface heating. GFS and ECMWF develop a line of strong the severe thunderstorms from near Austin ENE toward W LA by mid afternoon as the cap is overcome…however the NAM and some of the other short range guidance holds the cap longer over the region and does not develop as much activity. 0-6km shear values will be on the order 50-60kts across the region and this combined with the expected instability would result in severe thunderstorms.

Forecast models that do develop storms show initial mode east of I-35 as supercells with a large hail threat and then quickly transition toward a line with bowing segments which seems likely given the wind energy aloft. Initial supercells could have a slight tornado risk…but think the main threat will be large hail. Storms will move ESE across at least the northern ½ of the region Sunday evening likely becoming increasingly linear. Linear mode favors strong straight line wind damage along the leading edge of the line and in any bowing segments. If a well defined line develops could see a few corridors of wind damage in the region from east of Austin ESE north of US 290 northward toward Huntsville. Will have to watch for the potential for the arctic front to undercut the leading edge of the line and reduce the severe weather threat Sunday evening.

Timing continues to look from mid afternoon into mid to late evening. SPC slight risk includes about 75% of the area, but think capping to the SW will be too much to overcome and the main severe threat will be NE of a line from Austin to Columbus to Houston to High Island.

Other item is fairly impressive cold air advection with this system and expect cold temperatures Monday-Wednesday. Modified arctic air mass will be fully entrenched by Monday morning with lows in the 30’s across the entire area and possibly upper 20’s northern counties. Will see only modest recovery on Monday as strong north winds continue to transport cold air southward with highs likely in the upper 40’s and low 50’s….a big difference from the highs near 80 on Sunday.

SPC Day 2 (Sunday) Severe Weather Outlook:
03012014 Jeff image001.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Paul Robison

I like what texas storm chasers said:


What we think will happen is a line of storms will develop from DFW to Waco Sunday morning and that will push east into the afternoon. The cold front will likely undercut the storms, keeping them from getting that strong. If any storms can form ahead if the line, those could produce brief tornadoes. Overall, this is not going to be major event but you should stay alert to changing conditions.

right, srainhoutex?
skidog40
Posts: 193
Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2011 11:03 pm
Contact:

the temps up north are really cold, are we sure the forecast is right. Ive looked all year at temps this looks the coldest.
ronyan
Posts: 214
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 7:23 pm
Location: Clute, TX
Contact:

skidog40 wrote:the temps up north are really cold, are we sure the forecast is right. Ive looked all year at temps this looks the coldest.
The 0z GFS has come in a few degrees colder, now has 34F at IAH tomorrow night. About a 40 degree temperature drop is in store for tomorrow from a high in the 70s.
ronyan
Posts: 214
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 7:23 pm
Location: Clute, TX
Contact:

Here's a snippet taken from tonight's HGX discussion:

IT`S ALL IN THE TIMING AND...CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED SHARP DECLINE
OF LATE DAY INTO EVENING NORTHERN COUNTY LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES...THERE
EXISTS A MENTIONABLE CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE.
IF THIS FRONT IS AS AGGRESSIVE AS FORECAST...THEN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE EAST OF THOSE COUNTIES WHERE THE MERCURY DIPS BELOW FREEZING.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING
THOUGH A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE SUB-FREEZING LAYER. WET ELEVATED ROADWAYS/BRIDGES
MAY BECOME SLICK AS A THIN LAYER OF BLACK ICE FORMS UPON THOSE SURFACES.
THE WINDOW FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE FROM
9 PM THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY. THE HWOHGX PRODUCT HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE THIS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT (TRAVELING) HAZARD. 31
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5361
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

For real? I was anticipating a low of about 35-36 so I cut everything back yesterday. Now the NWS has me at 32 tonight, with wind. Grrrr.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The Arctic front appears to be pushing SE faster than expected and that suggests the severe potential would be a bit less except for areas across Metro Houston on E into Louisiana. The may threat appears to a some gusty winds and perhaps a very brief spin up of a tornado with the greatest threat E of Houston into Lake Charles and on E towards Baton Rogue late tonight.

The next interest is the freezing rain potential. It is not out of the question that a brief window for freezing rain may exist mainly N of I-10 and probably along a Columbus to Hempstead to Lake Livingston line with the faster arriving Arctic front. It is note worthy that additional upper level disturbances are lagging back to our W across Arizona and may offer an additional threat for freezing rain Monday evening/night across the Austin to College Station area. The inhibiting factor for any accumulation is the very warm ground temperatures and the warm weather we have seen that past couple of days. If and it is a big if, we see any problems with ice the time frame to watch would be on Monday and the mainly on elevated surfaces. The big weather story will likely be the big temperature drops in the order of 20 to 30 degrees as the front passes and the very gusty Northerly winds that will remind us that Winter 2013-2014 has one last gasp before we transition into Spring. I personally hope this winter is done. Those 80's yesterday sure felt good... ;)
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Morning Update from Jeff:

Powerful arctic cold front will sweep across the region today with a significant drop in temperatures.

Arctic boundary is moving quickly southward this morning with a 30-40 degree temperature drop across the boundary (Austin is 72 while Waco is 35). Boundary will race southward and reach our NW counties before noon and push to near US 59 by 300-400pm and off the coast by early evening. Upstream temperatures at Amarillo are 8 and in the teens across much of OK so this air mass is very cold for early March.

Severe Threat:
Mornings soundings from LCH and CRP showed a fairly impressive capping inversion in place across the region with saturation of the air mass below the cap. With better moisture in place today…it will be hard to mix out the low stratus clouds over the region and suspect there will only be a few breaks in the overcast across the region which will keep instability on the lower side in the 800-1000J/kg instead of closer to 1500J/kg. Forecast models erode the cap this afternoon and allow convection to develop along the leading edge of the frontal lift. Think the arctic boundary will move too fast southward and outrun the developing storms cutting the updrafts off from the surface and making them quickly elevated which lessens the severe threat over the region. Could still see a few severe hail and wind reports especially NE of a line from College Station to Conroe to Liberty where capping will be weakest and storms have the best chance of being rooted near the surface.

Winter Precipitation:
Incoming air mass is very cold and forecast models have been too warm with upstream temperatures which raises the concern this evening that light rain following the frontal passage could change to freezing rain along a north of a HWY 105 line. Warm temperatures since Friday has greatly warmed both ground and roadway surface temperatures and even if temperatures fall into the 30-32 range do not think ice accumulation will be significant. With that said overnight lows will fall into the upper 20’s north of HWY 105 which may result in freezing over residual water on bridges and overpasses after the precipitation ends around midnight. Given very warm roadway surface conditions, think surface temperatures will need to fall into the 27-29 range for ice to form and this will be possible in the region from College Station to Lake Livingston after midnight.

Other aspect will be the potential for a freeze warning for areas N of I-10 tonight. While the area has had several hard freezes this winter the recent warm spells have allowed vegetation to bud and freezing temperatures will damage the new sensitive growth which would fall within the range of a late season freeze warning. Wind chills tonight will run 15-25 degrees across the area.

Early Week:
Cold arctic dome will entrench over the area for much of the week with active flow remaining in place from the WSW. This flow will bring several disturbances across the area and generate periods of rainfall. First disturbance will cross the area late Monday into Tuesday. Surface temperature profiles suggest mainly a rain event, but surface temperatures could be very near freezing Tuesday morning north of HWY 105 for a brief period of freezing rain or sleet. Highs on Monday will only reach the mid 40’s under north winds and cloudy skies (about 35 degrees colder than today). Next system approaches late Tuesday into Wednesday with another chance of rainfall across the area. Temperatures will remain cold for early March for most of the week with lows 30-35 Monday and Tuesday and highs only in the 40’s both Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday will again be cold with clouds and rain with lows in the upper 30’s and highs in the lower 50’s.

Should start to see a warming trend toward the end of the week ahead of yet another weather system next Saturday.

Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook:
030220104 Jeff image001.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The SPC 09Z SREF continues to be very suggestive of a freezing rain/sleet potential across our Region early tomorrow morning and again mainly across Central Texas early Tuesday morning.

Valid 09Z Monday:
03022014 Valid 09Z Monday SREF_LIKELY__f024.gif
Valid 09Z Tuesday:
03022014 09Z Valid 09Z Tuesday SREF_LIKELY__f048.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
Portastorm
Posts: 800
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
Contact:

The SREF has shown something similar the last few runs. Yesterday's 15z run showed some light wintry mix for the AUS area late Mon into early Tues.

Cold front came through here about 45 minutes ago. Temperature has dropped from 71 to 53 in 30 minutes.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Most of SE Texas has been removed from the Slight Risk for severe storms. Attention now turns to the Winter side of this powerful storm system.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM PARTS OF ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE D1
PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A SRN-STREAM
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO
THE LOWER OH/LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS BY 3/12Z. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...MID-MORNING MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT FROM SRN NEW
ENGLAND SWWD THROUGH THE SRN OH/TN VALLEYS TO A WEAK WAVE OVER THE
ARKLATEX...AND THEN SWWD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. EXPECT
THIS FRONTAL WAVE TO DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD ALONG THE EQUATOR
WARD-ADVANCING FRONT INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY LATE
TONIGHT...WHILE THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES
SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...

12Z SOUNDING DATA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SAMPLED A SEASONABLY MOIST
AIR MASS /I.E. LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 13-15 G PER KG/
SURMOUNTED BY A PRONOUNCED EML AND ASSOCIATED CAP...YIELDING MUCAPE
OF 1500-3000+ J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST DCVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN LARGELY
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF PBL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONCERNS EXIST
WITH REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT THAT
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ELEVATED TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM ERN TX INTO SRN AR/NRN LA
WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG A 40-45 KT LLJ BECOMES COLOCATED WITH
THE SRN FRINGE OF DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. BASED ON
THE ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY THE 12Z DRT SOUNDING...INTENSE UPDRAFTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL. SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT --IF OCCURRING AT ALL-- WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THE EVOLUTION OF A
NARROW...FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO
UNFOLD...THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY STRONG WSWLY DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

..MEAD/SMITH.. 03/02/2014

03022014 1627Z SPC day1otlk_1630.gif
Image

Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
ronyan
Posts: 214
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 7:23 pm
Location: Clute, TX
Contact:

The 12z GFS continues to trend down with 2m temps, not sure what MOS shows but it is now at 32F for tomorrow morning at IAH, the NAM has 26! I think probably somewhere in the middle with bias toward the NAM. I'm going to say IAH reaches 28 tonight/tomorrow morning.
User avatar
Kludge
Posts: 254
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 11:53 pm
Location: Bedias, Texas
Contact:

74 to 51 in 15 minutes. In my opinion this storm system will be one that's studied for years to come. Not so much for it's intensity or effects, but for its amazing contradiction to calendar climatology.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1122 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THROUGH 8 AM...

.STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO 25 TO 30 DEGREES WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS.
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL RANGE FROM 22 DOWN TO 14 DEGREES
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 4 AM AND 8 AM.

TXZ163-164-176-177-195>198-030800-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WC.Y.0001.140303T0700Z-140303T1400Z/
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-TRINITY-WALKER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRENHAM...BRYAN...CALDWELL...
COLLEGE STATION...CROCKETT...GROVETON...HUNTSVILLE...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...TRINITY
1122 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CST
MONDAY.

* TIMING...STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S. AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO 25 TO 30 DEGREES WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH
WINDS. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL RANGE FROM 22 DOWN TO 14
DEGREES ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 4 AM AND 8 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1140 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

.GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

TXZ195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-030145-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0011.140302T2200Z-140303T1500Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...
EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...
HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...
MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...
PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...
WHARTON...WILLIS...WINNIE
1140 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM CST MONDAY.

* EVENT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

* TIMING...THE STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY

* IMPACT...THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD MAKING ELEVATED ROADWAYS
HAZARDOUS AND LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS OR WITH LARGE SURFACE AREAS
COULD BE PICKED UP OR BLOW OVER. THE COMBINATION OF COLD STRONG
WIND AND COLD AIR WILL MAKE FOR CHILLY CONDITIONS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA AS WELL WITH WIND CHILL INDICES OF LESS THAN 33
DEGREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING ALONG EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The front is between Brenham and Hempstead. Expect a 20 degree drop when the front passes and winds gusting to near 30 to 35 mph.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
Mr. T
Posts: 992
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 4:22 pm
Location: Kingwood
Contact:

Did HGX finally change their wind chill advisory criteria? It was values below zero which was way lower than any coastal office, and it seemed like it was based off of the old wind chill formula.

I mention this because College Station saw wind chill values into the single digits this season with nary an advisory.

Anyway, there is nearly a 50 degree difference between IAH (75) and DFW (26, freezing drizzle) right now. You can't say that very often...
Kingwood31
Posts: 140
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 12:47 pm
Location: Kingwood,tx
Contact:

Ever notice on s2k them north texas ppl are some greedy ppl always hogging the winter fun lol ;)
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1251 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-022300-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
1251 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

...ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG A BRENHAM TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO DEL RIO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE REACHED JUST PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25
MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S BY EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/I-37 CORRIDORS WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP AS LOW AS THE TEENS TO
20S BY AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS MONDAY
EVENING...PEAKING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN
ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO PARTS OF THE
AUSTIN METRO AREA. AS A RESULT...FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.
AT THIS TIME...LITTLE OR NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
THE RECENT STRING OF WARM DAYS.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST DEVELOPMENT ON THIS COLD WEATHER AND
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Pea sized hail with freezing rain reported in Waco.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 95 guests