March: Comfortable Weekend Weather & Warming Trend

[Andrew]

For those that want to get any kcll soundings in the past or future, we post most all of them on Facebook. Usually I post them before or at the same time it gets posted online, but if you want the direct source, I suggest you like this page:

https://facebook.com/pages/Atmospheric- ... 2435785916

[Andrew]

Almost all sun here. Close to 80 already

[redneckweather]

Clouds have completely eroded up here in central Montgomery County. I'm not sure what the drought monitor looks like these days but if it says that my area is in a drought then they don't have a friggin clue.

[Andrew]

18z kcll:

[Andrew]

Keep in mind surface temps were 76 during the sounding. Temps currently are 84 or 85.....plus rising Dewpoints at the surface.

[srainhoutx]

Temp has risen to 83F here in NW Harris County and IAH. Radar suggests a bit of a ESE track of the cells N of Austin and a bit of back building to the SW. We will see if the cap can break across the Northern and Central areas of SE Texas.

[BlueJay]

83F here.
We are parched.

[srainhoutx]

Latest Meso Discussion suggests the Severe Thunderstorm Watch may need to be extended further S into portions of SE and E Texas as well as Louisiana.

[South_Texas_Storms]

Here in College Station it's very warm and humid, with plenty of sunshine helping to destabilize the atmosphere even more. Should be an interesting late afternoon around here!

[South_Texas_Storms]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC041-051-185-199-225-241-291-313-339-351-373-407-455-457-471-
477-290300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0038.140328T2055Z-140329T0300Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRAZOS BURLESON GRIMES
HARDIN HOUSTON JASPER
LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY
NEWTON POLK SAN JACINTO
TRINITY TYLER WALKER
WASHINGTON


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH OF
HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO 70 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF LUFKIN TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 36...WW 37...

DISCUSSION...AN LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TX WILL
TRACK EASTWARD AND AFFECT SOUTHEAST TX THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
HAVE A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the northern parts of SE TX effective until 1000pm.

The watch is along and mainly north of FM 2920 and US 290.

Line of severe thunderstorms that have had a history of producing damaging hail and winds over C TX this moving eastward and will be approaching the College Station area in the next 2-3 hours. 19Z balloon launch from UH showed excessive instability of over 3700 J/kg, but capping still in place. 17Z launch from A&M showed capping still holding, but this was several hours ago and surface heating has likely eroded the cap in that region and as far south as Montgomery County. Looks like surface temperatures will need to reach 85-86 degrees to overcome the mid level warm layer (cap) and that is looking unlikely across the southern half of the region. Recent cell develop just west of College Station suggest the cap is very weak in this area and incoming C TX storms will hold severe intensities as they move ESE. Severe storms along the dryline have held together nicely this afternoon and are likely generating a cold pool of air that will help sustain their forward progress into the evening hours into the northern portions of SE TX. With such excessive amounts of instability in place over the region damaging hail…and a few extreme reports up to baseball size…will be possible along with wind gusts to 70mph. Should see the storms cross the northern portions of the area between 600pm and 900pm with the greatest threat for damaging severe weather from College Station to Conroe to Liberty and on northward.

[jasons2k]

These storms are right-turners so they may hold together for a long time.

[unome]

from WeatherNation's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/WeatherNation

Golf ball sized hail reported with the severe storms moving through Texas and Arkansas. Thanks to @timbofowler for the photo from Copperas Cove, Texas.

[srainhoutx]

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been expanded to include all of SE Texas and Coastal waters.

[mckinne63]

When can we expect the storms? Skies are clear in Stafford.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Watch has been expanded to include all SE TX counties except Jackson and Matagorda until 1000pm.

Line of severe thunderstorms is approaching the area the NW. Air mass over SE TX is very unstable and should help to support this line all the way to the coast. Appears just enough heating has taken place to allow the capping to be broken, but I am still a bit wary on just how far south the line will make it.

Given the linear look of the line…damaging wind threat will be the increasing threat into the evening hours.

 

[cisa]

I friend just posted a picture on his Facebook of a goofball sized hail stone in Temple. When I left work in Conroe about 4pm, it was 90 degrees.

[Andrew]

Unfortunately locally the "aggie bubble" as it is called hit pretty hard and we didn't get much rain but we did have some pretty awesome outflow gusts. All around us though some pretty intense storms took place with strong winds and large hail

[weatherguy425]

Time to watch 'discrete' cells developing ahead of the main line. Storm in far northwestern Harris County is strengthening and could become severe-warned before too long, IMO. Also, while not easily defined on radar, I wouldn't be surprised if there was some sort of sea/bay breeze today - just adding to the mix.

[Ptarmigan]

First severe thunderstorm of the season.