Most of SE Texas has been removed from the Slight Risk for severe storms. Attention now turns to the Winter side of this powerful storm system.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2014
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM PARTS OF ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE D1
PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A SRN-STREAM
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO
THE LOWER OH/LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS BY 3/12Z. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...MID-MORNING MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT FROM SRN NEW
ENGLAND SWWD THROUGH THE SRN OH/TN VALLEYS TO A WEAK WAVE OVER THE
ARKLATEX...AND THEN SWWD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. EXPECT
THIS FRONTAL WAVE TO DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD ALONG THE EQUATOR
WARD-ADVANCING FRONT INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY LATE
TONIGHT...WHILE THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES
SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...
12Z SOUNDING DATA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SAMPLED A SEASONABLY MOIST
AIR MASS /I.E. LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 13-15 G PER KG/
SURMOUNTED BY A PRONOUNCED EML AND ASSOCIATED CAP...YIELDING MUCAPE
OF 1500-3000+ J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST DCVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN LARGELY
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF PBL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CONCERNS EXIST
WITH REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT THAT
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ELEVATED TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM ERN TX INTO SRN AR/NRN LA
WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG A 40-45 KT LLJ BECOMES COLOCATED WITH
THE SRN FRINGE OF DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. BASED ON
THE ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY THE 12Z DRT SOUNDING...INTENSE UPDRAFTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL. SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT --IF OCCURRING AT ALL-- WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THE EVOLUTION OF A
NARROW...FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO
UNFOLD...THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY STRONG WSWLY DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
..MEAD/SMITH.. 03/02/2014
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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The 12z GFS continues to trend down with 2m temps, not sure what MOS shows but it is now at 32F for tomorrow morning at IAH, the NAM has 26! I think probably somewhere in the middle with bias toward the NAM. I'm going to say IAH reaches 28 tonight/tomorrow morning.
74 to 51 in 15 minutes. In my opinion this storm system will be one that's studied for years to come. Not so much for it's intensity or effects, but for its amazing contradiction to calendar climatology.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1122 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THROUGH 8 AM...
.STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO 25 TO 30 DEGREES WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS.
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL RANGE FROM 22 DOWN TO 14 DEGREES
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 4 AM AND 8 AM.
TXZ163-164-176-177-195>198-030800-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WC.Y.0001.140303T0700Z-140303T1400Z/
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-TRINITY-WALKER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRENHAM...BRYAN...CALDWELL...
COLLEGE STATION...CROCKETT...GROVETON...HUNTSVILLE...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...TRINITY
1122 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CST MONDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CST
MONDAY.
* TIMING...STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S. AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO 25 TO 30 DEGREES WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH
WINDS. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL RANGE FROM 22 DOWN TO 14
DEGREES ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 4 AM AND 8 AM.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1140 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT...
.GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
TXZ195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-030145-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0011.140302T2200Z-140303T1500Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...
EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...
HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...
MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...
PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...
WHARTON...WILLIS...WINNIE
1140 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM CST MONDAY.
* EVENT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
* TIMING...THE STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY
* IMPACT...THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD MAKING ELEVATED ROADWAYS
HAZARDOUS AND LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS OR WITH LARGE SURFACE AREAS
COULD BE PICKED UP OR BLOW OVER. THE COMBINATION OF COLD STRONG
WIND AND COLD AIR WILL MAKE FOR CHILLY CONDITIONS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA AS WELL WITH WIND CHILL INDICES OF LESS THAN 33
DEGREES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING ALONG EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Did HGX finally change their wind chill advisory criteria? It was values below zero which was way lower than any coastal office, and it seemed like it was based off of the old wind chill formula.
I mention this because College Station saw wind chill values into the single digits this season with nary an advisory.
Anyway, there is nearly a 50 degree difference between IAH (75) and DFW (26, freezing drizzle) right now. You can't say that very often...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1251 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-022300-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
1251 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
...ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG A BRENHAM TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO DEL RIO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE REACHED JUST PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25
MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S BY EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/I-37 CORRIDORS WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP AS LOW AS THE TEENS TO
20S BY AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS MONDAY
EVENING...PEAKING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN
ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO PARTS OF THE
AUSTIN METRO AREA. AS A RESULT...FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.
AT THIS TIME...LITTLE OR NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
THE RECENT STRING OF WARM DAYS.
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST DEVELOPMENT ON THIS COLD WEATHER AND
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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what is everyone thoughts on se texas chances for freezing precip? my thoughts is it is cold enough and it pushes this far south....we might see it...it will be close
Despite a significant warm nose here in OK, it actually snowed here in Norman briefly this morning. Also snow reports came in around the OKC metro area. Very strange. This is such a powerful system with a lot of dynamics to it. Oh, and I experienced my first "Thundersleet" this afternoon. Just wicked!!
NAM really brings in some icy conditions in SE TX overnight into Monday. Interesting.
The WPC Winter Weather Outlook probabilities just updated and their forecast suggests probabilities are near the 80% chance of freezing rain and sleet mainly N of I-10. The 15Z SPC are a bit more agreesive and suggest chances may be a bit further S. The SPC SREF is also very bullish on freezing rain chances across the Hill Country and the Austin area early Tuesday and are creeping closer to SE Texas with each new update of that meso model. HGX is carefully watching and considering a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of SE Texas later this afternoon or tonight.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Belmer wrote:Despite a significant warm nose here in OK, it actually snowed here in Norman briefly this morning. Also snow reports came in around the OKC metro area. Very strange. This is such a powerful system with a lot of dynamics to it. Oh, and I experienced my first "Thundersleet" this afternoon. Just wicked!!
NAM really brings in some icy conditions in SE TX overnight into Monday. Interesting.
I saw a heavy thunderstorm that was all sleet back around 2000 in Waco. accumulated almost an inch of sleet in about half an hour. it melted about as fast as it got on there
