PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
...NINTH COLDEST NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH 5TH
FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON...
THE WINTER OF OUR DISCONTENT HAS LINGERED INTO MARCH WITH MORE SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND THE THIRD ICE STORM OF THE WINTER.
THERE WERE TWO TO THREE MORE DAYS IN MARCH WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 32 DEGREES ADDING TO AN ALREADY IMPRESSIVE TOTAL OF
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ENDURED ALMOST
TWICE AS MANY SUB-FREEZING DAYS COMPARED TO WHAT THE REGION
TYPICALLY EXPECTS DURING A WINTER.
BELOW IS A TABLE WITH THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS (1981-2010) AT OR
BELOW 32 DEGREES DURING THE COOL SEASON DEFINED AS OCT 1ST THROUGH
MARCH 30TH AND THE ACTUAL NUMBER OF DAYS AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES THUS
FAR FOR THE 2013-14 COOL SEASON:
NUMBER OF DAYS AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES (1981-2010)
SITE OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR TOTAL
IAH NORMS 0.1 0.6 4.1 4.6 2.3 0.9 12.5
IAH 2013-14 0 1 5 10 1 2 19
GLS NORMS 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 2.3
GLS 2013-14 0 0 0 6 0 0 6
CLL NORMS 0.1 0.9 6.0 6.4 3.1 1.2 17.7
CLL 2013-14 0 2 9 12 5 3 31
HOU NORMS 0.0 0.1 1.8 2.5 1.0 0.5 5.9
HOU 2013-14 0 0 1 7 1 2 11
IT HASN'T BEEN JUST THE OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT HAVE BEEN SO COLD...BUT
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE AT TIMES STRUGGLED TO WARM TO 50
DEGREES. MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ENDURED DOUBLE THE USUAL NUMBER
OF DAYS AT OR BELOW 50 DEGREES. BELOW IS THE NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 50 DEGREES FOR THE PERIOD NOVEMBER
1ST THROUGH MARCH 5TH:
NUMBER OF DAYS AT OR BELOW 50 DEGREES (1981-2010)
SITE NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR TOTAL
IAH NORMS 0.5 3.6 4.5 2.6 0.4 11.6
IAH 2013-14 5 7 5 4 2 23
GLS NORMS 0.3 2.7 3.7 2.2 0.4 9.3
GLS 2013-14 3 6 6 5 2 22
CLL NORMS 0.9 4.7 5.9 3.6 0.7 15.8
CLL 2013-14 5 7 5 7 2 26
HOU NORMS 0.4 3.3 4.5 2.0 0.4 10.6
HOU 2013-14 4 6 5 3 2 20
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST FOUR MONTHS HAS NOT BEEN
FUELED BY A FEW EXTREME EVENTS BUT RATHER A CONSISTENTLY VERY
COLD AIR MASS. THE PERIOD OF NOVEMBER 1ST THROUGH MARCH 5TH
CONTAINS 125 DAYS AND OUT OF THOSE 125 DAYS...APPROXIMATELY 80
DAYS HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL. BELOW IS A TABLE WITH THE NUMBER OF
DAYS WHEN THE DAILY TEMPERATURE WAS BELOW THE AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURE:
NUMBER OF DAYS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NOV 1 - MAR 5
NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR TOTAL
CITY OF HOUSTON 20 20 19 17 4 80
COLLEGE STATION 20 21 18 15 4 78
GALVESTON 19 23 17 17 4 80
HOUSTON HOBBY 19 20 18 15 4 76
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE LAST FOUR MONTHS HAVE ALL BEEN BELOW
THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE NORMALS. THE CITY OF HOUSTON HAS TEMPERATURE
RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1892 AND THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE FOR
THE WINTER OF 2013-14 (DEFINED FOR THIS STATEMENT AS NOVEMBER 1ST
THROUGH MARCH 5TH) IS 53.1 DEGREES AND THIS IS THE NINTH COLDEST
PERIOD IN RECORDED HISTORY.
THE CITY OF GALVESTON HAS TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1875
AND THIS IS THE 14TH COLDEST PERIOD IN RECORDED HISTORY WITH AN
AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE OF 54.9 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH HOUSTON HOBBY
AND COLLEGE STATION HAVE SLIGHTLY SHORTER PERIOD OF RECORDS (1930
AND 1911 RESPECTIVELY)...COLLEGE STATION TIED ITS EIGHTH COLDEST
PERIOD ON RECORD AND HOUSTON HOBBY RECORDED ITS 11TH COLDEST
NOVEMBER 1ST THROUGH MARCH 5TH ON RECORD.
BELOW IS A TABLE WITH THE AVERAGE NOVEMBER 1ST THROUGH MARCH 5TH
TEMPERATURES AND WHERE THIS YEAR RANKS (COLDEST) HISTORICALLY...THE
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS PERIOD AND THE COLDEST VALUES FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD:
NOVEMBER 1ST THROUGH MARCH 5TH
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE
CITY OF HOUSTON CITY OF COLLEGE
HOUSTON HOBBY GALVESTON STATION
2013-14 63.5 64.1 61.8 61.2
2013-14 RANK 23RD 13TH 36TH 12TH
NORMALS 67.0 66.5 65.8 65.2
DEPARTURE -3.5 -2.4 -4.0 -4.0
COLDEST 60.5 60.7 57.7 58.0
NOVEMBER 1ST THROUGH MARCH 5TH
AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE
2013-14 42.7 45.0 48.1 40.7
2013-14 RANK 9TH (T) 13TH 5TH (T) 5TH
NORMALS 46.9 49.0 52.7 45.1
DEPARTURE -4.2 -4.0 -4.6 -4.4
COLDEST 38.0 41.7 47.0 38.2
NOVEMBER 1ST THROUGH MARCH 5TH
AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE
2013-14 53.1 54.5 54.9 50.9
2013-14 RANK 9TH 11TH 14TH 8TH (T)
NORMALS 56.9 57.8 59.3 55.2
DEPARTURE -3.8 -3.3 -4.4 -4.3
COLDEST 49.5 51.2 52.4 48.6
TO SATISFY THOSE WITH CURIOUS MINDS...HERE ARE THE TOP TEN COLDEST
NOV 1ST THROUGH MARCH 5TH FOR ALL FOUR FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES:
CITY OF HOUSTON
AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE
HIGH LOW DAILY
60.5 1977-78 38.0 1976-77 49.5 1976-77
60.9 1976-77 40.6 1898-99 50.9 1898-99
61.2 1898-99 40.7 1972-73 51.8 1972-73
61.2 1894-95 41.9 1904-05 51.8 1894-95
62.0 1929-30 42.1 1983-84 52.0 1904-05
62.0 1904-05 42.1 1979-80 52.5 1983-84
62.2 2009-10 42.4 1894-95 52.5 2009-10
62.2 1935-36 42.6 1901-02 53.0 1911-12
62.3 1911-12 42.7 2013-14 53.1 2013-14
62.4 1947-48 42.7 1969-70 53.2 2000-01
63.5 2013-14 (23)
COLLEGE STATION
AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE
HIGH LOW DAILY
58.0 1972-73 38.2 1976-77 48.6 1976-77
58.9 1978-79 39.9 1972-73 49.0 1972-73
59.1 1976-77 40.4 1959-60 50.1 1977-78
59.4 1977-78 40.4 1911-12 50.2 1959-60
59.5 1929-30 40.7 2013-14 50.2 1978-79
60.0 1959-60 40.8 1979-80 50.7 1929-30
60.5 2009-10 40.8 1977-78 50.8 1928-29
60.6 1967-68 40.8 1904-05 50.9 2013-14
60.6 1928-29 40.9 1983-84 50.9 1963-64
60.7 2000-01 41.0 1928-29 51.0 2009-10
61.2 2013-14 (12)
CITY OF GALVESTON
AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE
HIGH LOW DAILY
57.7 1976-77 47.0 1880-81 52.4 1976-77
58.3 1880-81 47.1 1976-77 52.6 1880-81
58.9 1898-99 47.1 1898-99 53.0 1898-99
59.2 1977-78 47.4 1911-12 53.5 1911-12
59.3 1904-05 48.1 2013-14 53.7 1977-78
59.6 1876-77 48.1 1959-60 53.9 1959-60
59.7 1959-60 48.2 1977-78 54.0 1904-05
59.7 1914-15 48.6 1929-30 54.2 1876-77
59.7 1911-12 48.7 1904-05 54.4 1929-30
59.9 1963-64 48.9 1962-63 54.6 1963-64
61.8 2013-14 (36) (14) 54.9 2013-14
HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT
AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE
HIGH LOW DAILY
60.7 1976-77 41.7 1976-77 51.2 1976-77
61.3 1977-78 43.0 1977-78 52.2 1977-78
61.4 1959-60 43.4 1963-64 52.5 1959-60
62.1 2009-10 43.7 1959-60 53.1 1963-64
62.9 1983-84 44.1 1962-63 53.4 2009-10
62.9 1963-64 44.3 1978-79 53.8 1978-79
63.0 2000-01 44.4 1980-81 53.9 1983-84
63.2 1978-79 44.4 1972-73 54.0 1972-73
63.7 1972-73 44.5 1979-80 54.2 1962-63
63.7 1941-42 44.6 2009-10 54.2 1941-42
64.1 2013-14 (13) 45.0 2013-14 (13) 54.5 2013-14 (11)
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We got some rain here in Stafford, don't think it was much though. Didn't hear anything last night, but woke up to a wet yard and some drizzling. Just cool and overcast now. Our Bradford Pear tree is starting to bloom though! Hoping we get a nice burst this year. It hasn't really bloomed well since Ike.
I got to visit with my sisters this past weekend, one lives in Yoakum and the other lives in Bay City. They both experienced the winter wonderland event of March 4th and described the "dipping dot" type of precipitation at their homes. I told them that it was likely graupel that they saw. They had never heard of this before. Great Thanks to all who contribute to this weather forum. I have learned a lot.
Ok. I am calling an end to winter 2013 - 2014. I mean no more 32 degrees and below temperatures until Late in the year. Let the planting begin!
Caveat: I am not a pro met!
A rather strong cold front will sweep across Texas tonight into tomorrow as the fast progressive somewhat split flow pattern continues. Temperatures should drop to the 30's inland with 40's along the Coast early Thursday. Another strong short wave (upper air disturbance) is penciled in for the weekend with a chance of showers and possibly some storms as that feature drops into NE Mexico/W Texas and heads on E early next week.
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Why has NOAA issued a wind advisory for tomorrow's post-frontal winds? I mean, at 15-20 mph with gusts only to 30 mph that doesn't sound particularly damaging. Not worried. Just don't understand.
A Wind Advisory is specific to an area and based normal winds.
Wind Advisory:
Sustained winds 25 to 39 mph and/or gusts to 57 mph. Issuance is normally site specific. However, winds of this magnitude occurring over an area that frequently experiences such winds
A very chilly start to Thursday across our Region with temperatures in the mid to upper 30's inland and 40's near the Coast will once again transition to a warm up as high clouds begin to stream in from the W as a storm system develops across Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center as outlined a Slight Risk for severe storms across the Eastern half of Texas into Louisiana for Saturday, but there is much uncertainty as the various guidance are not in good agremment with the eventual outcome of just how the Mexico system will eject E and if capping issues will limit that threat for elevated storms to transition to surface based storms. As is usually the case with these short waves that drop rather far S into Mexico before they begin their trek E to NE, the various computer models struggle with what will be the final solution to our sensible weather, so expect changes over the next day or two. Rain chances should begin to increase late on Friday and further increase on Saturday as the upper trough moves closer to W Central Texas.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SERN OK/ERN
TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
...EXTREME SERN OK/EAST TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
SUBTLE BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST DURING THE DAY3
PERIOD AMONG THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF. NAMELY...ALL THREE MODELS HANDLE
THE EJECTION OF LEAD SRN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. THE
GFS IS FLATTER AND SUBSTANTIALLY LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM WHICH
ALLOWS THIS FEATURE TO BECOME NEGATIVE TILTED ACROSS EAST TX AT
16/00Z. PRIMARY REASON FOR THESE DIFFERENCES APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION...THEN INTO NRN MEXICO. IT/S
NOT CLEAR HOW FAR WEST THIS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX WILL DIG AND STRENGTH
OF DOWNSTREAM SFC CYCLONE...ALBEIT WEAK...OVER TX IS HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF LEAD SPEED MAX. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE
OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER TX THAN THE NAM...BUT IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DEPICTED IN THE GFS.
GIVEN THE ABOVE UNCERTAINTY...60F+ SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD ADVANCE NWD
ACROSS EAST TX TO NEAR THE RED RIVER...PRIMARILY EAST OF I-35. IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD A WEAK SFC LOW SHOULD TRANSITION SEWD INTO NCNTRL TX
BY PEAK HEATING WITH A CORRIDOR OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
EXPECTED ALONG/WEST OF A DRY LINE NEAR I-35. TEMPERATURES AT 500MB
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER COOL WITH -18C EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED
ALONG I-20 AT 16/00Z. NET RESULT WILL BE FOR MODEST
INSTABILITY...SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...TO EVOLVE BY PEAK
HEATING. WEAK-MINIMAL INHIBITION SHOULD ALLOW SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE ALONG DRY LINE...AND NEAR EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER. FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR THE SFC
LOW/DRY LINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO NEAR THE GULF COAST FAIRLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD.
LATEST THINKING IS SCT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT
SUNRISE ACROSS OK WITHIN ZONE OF FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION. BY MID
DAY STRONG HEATING ACROSS WCNTRL TX WILL NOSE TOWARD THE METROPLEX
AND SFC-BASED TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD OF SFC LOW. SCT CLUSTERS OF
STRONG-POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE/DEVELOP
SEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE
HAIL SHOULD BE THE GREATEST RISK WITH SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE...ALONG
WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING OUTFLOW. WHILE ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG.
..DARROW.. 03/13/2014
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[quote="srainhoutx"]A very chilly start to Thursday across our Region with temperatures in the mid to upper 30's inland and 40's near the Coast will once again transition to a warm up as high clouds begin to stream in from the W as a storm system develops across Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center as outlined a Slight Risk for severe storms across the Eastern half of Texas into Louisiana for Saturday, but there is much uncertainty as the various guidance are not in good agremment with the eventual outcome of just how the Mexico system will eject E and if capping issues will limit that threat for elevated storms to transition to surface based storms. As is usually the case with these short waves that drop rather far S into Mexico before they begin their trek E to NE, the various computer models struggle with what will be the final solution to our sensible weather, so expect changes over the next day or two. Rain chances should begin to increase late on Friday and further increase on Saturday as the upper trough moves closer to W Central Texas.
HGX's response to SPC:
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESUMED AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS/TEMPS/MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY
LEVEL OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY NEAR AZ (ALONG WITH ITS EVENTUAL
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW) SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS N TX ON
SAT. PW`S SHOULD CLIMB TO 1.3-1.5" ACROSS THE AREA BY THEN BUT
FCST SOUNDINGS ALMOST ALL SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE BETWEEN
5000-8000FT. WITH THE TRAJECTORY & AMPLITUDE OF THIS S/W I REALLY
DON`T SEE HOW THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVERCOME TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
STORMS ATTM. EXCEPTION MIGHT BE EXTREME NE ZONES WHICH WOULD BE
CLOSER TO THE S/W & FAVORABLE JET LOCATION. PRETTY QUESTIONABLE
EVEN THERE (AT LEAST WHAT CURRENT PROJECTIONS SHOW). MORE INCLINED
TO THINK REGION AROUND ARKLATEX WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER STORMS & THINK SE TX WILL BE MORE PRONE TO WAA-TYPE SHRA
UNDER THE CAP ON SATURDAY...BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW
EVERYTHING EVOLVES IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVILY FAVORED NAM12 WX
DEPICTIONS IN THIS TIME PERIOD.
Not set in stone, but it does seem to be following the usual pattern for severe storms. NE zones usually get zapped.
The SPC did expand the Day 2 Outlook further W to include the Austin and Hill Country areas and the guidance does suggest a breakable capping inversion Saturday afternoon, but as we witnessed with the last Slight Risk the cap held strong and areas across the NE Texas area were the only locations that had any stronger storms. While it is still a bit early to dismiss the chance of an isolated strong to possibly severe storm or two, another cycle of data may be necessary to 'fine tune' the forecast. What does raise an eyebrow is the cold pocket aloft expected Sunday evening as the potent upper air disturbance shifts E towards Louisiana. Winter Weather WPC forecaster Kocin did paint a 30 to 40% chance of a flurry or two across the Piney Woods of E Texas and near Shreveport, but the greatest chance of Wintry Mischief appears to be across the Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley Regions well to our NE. That said yet another strong quick shot of cold air does look likely across E Texas Sunday night into early Monday.
The attachment 03142014 SPC Day 2 day2otlk_0600.gif is no longer available
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Pi = 3.14159 So technically it's pi when you truncate to 2 decimal places. Note that next year it will be pi if you truncate to 4 decimal places... and the following year will be exactly pi if you round to 4 decimal places, 3.1416.
I know... waaay OT. That's what you get when you forget to lock the door and the engineers sneak in.
Pi = 3.14159 So technically it's pi when you truncate to 2 decimal places. Note that next year it will be pi if you truncate to 4 decimal places... and the following year will be exactly pi if you round to 4 decimal places, 3.1416.
I know... waaay OT. That's what you get when you forget to lock the door and the engineers sneak in.
Thanks Kludge! Very interesting!
By the way, I enjoyed driving through Bedias a couple of weeks ago. Y'all had much more blooming trees than we have. It was a nice country drive on a cold wet day.
Interesting to note (as ED said before), no model predicts much of a SBCAPE across the area. Looking at KCLL soundings, both the NAM and GFS show SBCAPE at 500-700 J/kg which is low. Of course models could be underestimating surface based temps especially if capping breaks. If this is the case, then all bets are off and temps will more than likely support convective instability. With this said, models don't expect cloud cover to dissipate showing a saturated profile at the lower levels. On the other hand 6km shear looks to be plentiful ranging from 50-60kts. On top of that low a low LCL and LFC would indicate a low cloud deck and max lift should approach the area around max daytime heating. I would definitely not rule out the possibility of some discrete cells ahead of the main line (especially for north SE Texas). This threat will only be amplified with a break in the clouds but that is a wait and see game. Finally it looks like a majority of our counties will see a line of storms as the vort max moves across the area. That seems to be the biggest "severe threat" and as usual, straight line winds looks to be the biggest threat.
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