March: Comfortable Weekend Weather & Warming Trend

[Ptarmigan]

March is the month of expectation.
-Emily Dickinson, March is the Month of Expectation

We are entering the third month of 2014. March is the start of the meteorological spring as we bid farewell to winter. However, it can get cold in March like in 1932, 1978, 1980, 1989, and 2002. March looks to be on a wet start as it could be rainy on Saturday.

Ash Wednesday is on March 5. We spring one hour ahead on March 9. March Madness starts on March 18.

[Texaspirate11]

Rodeo too!

[srainhoutx]

Both the GEFS and Euro Ensembles do suggest that below to much below normal temperature anomalies are possible near the March 6th time frame, I doubt that the operational GFS was correct in suggesting wintry mischief along and S of the I-10 Corridor. That said March does appear to come in like a Lion and may well offer a rather stormy and unsettled pattern across our Region. We will see.

[wxman57]

March just sounds much warmer than February! I can just about taste those 80F+ afternoon highs.

[Portastorm]

Heh, the 12z Euro run shows snow for Houston next week.

[Kingwood31]

Heh, the 12z Euro run shows snow for Houston next week.

I laugh at the idea....but...it would be cool lol

[srainhoutx]

Ugh...amazing flip flop of the 12Z Euro from its 00Z run. That said it looks cold...sigh.

[cristina6871]

well I was going to post that I listened to Brooks at 4 and he mentioned some abnormal temps for the 3/6-3/10 time frame - prolonged cold I believe is what he said.....but I see there is already some chatter. Right now, I am listening to the sound of a nice moderate rain shower...

[jasons2k]

I really don't want another cold snap. I was looking forward to cutting away all the dead from my beds this weekend. I may wait another week if it looks like another freeze. The dead leaves provide a nice protection for my recovering ginger, cannas, ti plants, etc. At least I have a few days before I have to make the call - I hope the models/forecast trend warmer. We'll see...for now I'll enjoy this much-needed rain to green things up.

Somehow the last Majesty Palm and Pgymy date survived the big freezes. I had to get up on ladders and hack off all the fronds, and completely wrap the trunks and crowns in lights and covers. It was drastic measures that took hours, especially the first time when I had to cut the fronds off. The majesty palm is getting up there - I had to use my 14' ladder, so it's probably on its own from now on. Some day, it will be gone too. I dread the day I have to remove that stump.

For now, it looks like I have two big Q-tips in my back yard but at least the tops are green and not brown! All-in-all it wasn't as bad as 2011 when I Iost 3 out of 4 majesty palms, and every Pygmy date in town got toasted.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise a rather potent storm system crossing the Southern tier of the US and a very cold 1050mb Arctic High settling S from Canada into the Plains. The GFS continues to flirt with the idea of some potential wintry mischief across our Region as well as the storm tracks E. We will see.

[unome]

we are currently forecast high temps of 77 for both Sat & Sun, March 1st & 2nd, winds about 10 mph - not very lion-ish ;)

[srainhoutx]

The over night guidance is slowly trending toward a solution that may offer a bout of strong to possibly severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening as disturbance moves E across the Southern Plains and a strong Polar front drops S into Texas. The big question is how much capping issues will play in inhibiting storm development during peak heating on Sunday in advance of the cold front and if the greatest threat for a severe potential would extend from Central Texas on NE into Arkansas. The SPC is mentioning the potential but the uncertainties preclude a mention of any real Risk in the Day 4 to 8 Outlook. We may see the SPC introduce a Slight Risk sometime over night into tomorrow night if the data suggests a Slight Risk is warranted.

[spadilly]

This from a friend of mine on twitter. He's a weather officer for the USAF.

Chances of sig tornadoes (>=F2) have gone up for SE TX on Sun night, which includes CStat and H-Town. Stay tuned!

also this...

AFAW Global Ensemble intimates medium chc of large hail Sun night from SA to just SW of CStat

[jcarr]

So what are we looking at for the weekend of 3-7,8,9?

[Ptarmigan]

This from a friend of mine on twitter. He's a weather officer for the USAF.

Chances of sig tornadoes (>=F2) have gone up for SE TX on Sun night, which includes CStat and H-Town. Stay tuned!

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bhf3TCFCEAAc7Vn.jpg


also this...

AFAW Global Ensemble intimates medium chc of large hail Sun night from SA to just SW of CStat

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bhf4oBLCcAE7Ljk.jpg

If the forecast models are true, this could be a severe weather event.

[Paul Robison]

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise a rather potent storm system crossing the Southern tier of the US and a very cold 1050mb Arctic High settling S from Canada into the Plains. The GFS continues to flirt with the idea of some potential wintry mischief across our Region as well as the storm tracks E. We will see.

what kind of wintry mischief?

[srainhoutx]

Evening Update from Jeff:

Fast flow aloft will bring rapid weather changes over the next 72 hours.

Quick hitting polar high and its associated cold air is moving eastward this evening with southerly winds already underway across the area. Expect lows tonight to be about 10 degrees warmer than the light freeze most areas north of I-10 saw last night. Southerly flow will bring moisture off the Gulf Friday with highs pushing toward 70 and the mid to upper 70’s on Saturday. Dewpoints creep back into the low to mid 60’s by Saturday afternoon and expect to see sea fog development over the cold nearshore waters pushing inland Saturday evening. If winds are weak enough Sunday morning could feature fairly widespread sea fog event.

Main part of this forecast will center around incoming California storm system late Sunday with potential for heavy rainfall and severe weather. Parameters appear to be coming together for both aspects over the region, but pesky mid level warm layer (cap) advecting northeast from the higher terrain of NE MX will play havoc with storm development and severe parameters Sunday afternoon and evening.

Heavy Rainfall:

Storm system looks fairly progressive, but moisture profiles by Sunday afternoon are fairly impressive for this time of year with PWS reaching toward 1.5 inches or very close to +2SD for early March. If the cap can be broken, then moisture profile will support some efficient rainfall production in updraft cores. We are still over 48 hours out from the onset of the event, so will not attempt to determine where any potential heavy rainfall could occur. Best guess at the moment would be east of I-45 and north of I-10 where capping will be weakest and upper level divergence (splitting of winds aloft) the best. Best rains on Monday night/Tuesday were roughly from Waller to Aldine to north of Baytown where 1.0-2.5 inches was common. While grounds are moist they are not saturated and flash flood guidance is still high over the area except along the mentioned line so think any flooding will be localized at this point.

Severe:

If the cap is broken during the late afternoon hours, severe parameters including both instability and wind shear look supportive of wind damage and tornadoes. Models may be overdoing the instability some given the expected influx of coastal sea fog which will likely limit heating on Sunday. Dynamics aloft will be increasing throughout the day which will help to lift and erode the mid level cap and expect thunderstorms to initiate in the 300-600pm time period Sunday evening north of HWY 105 as incoming surface frontal boundary becomes enough surface focus to punch through the mid level warm air. Surface based storms that can break through the cap will likely go severe with damaging winds and large hail being the main threat. Think the cap will be too strong around Matagorda Bay for much more than showers and not sure about Houston metro at this point as this will likely be the transition area to more severe weather over our NE counties roughly from Huntsville to High Island.

Will need to keep an eye on this system as it enters California tomorrow and into the US upper air network which will help sample the structure of this system and feed better data into the forecasting models. Should have a fairly good idea of impacts on our area by Saturday morning.

Post frontal air mass will again feature a fairly significant cold plunge for early March with 1040mb polar high settling into the central plains. If skies do clear out on Monday lows could be back around/near freezing by next Tuesday morning across portions of the area. Global models are not in good agreement on how quickly the polar air mass modifies and if/when rain chances might return next week.

[Paul Robison]

Evening Update from Jeff:

Fast flow aloft will bring rapid weather changes over the next 72 hours.

Quick hitting polar high and its associated cold air is moving eastward this evening with southerly winds already underway across the area. Expect lows tonight to be about 10 degrees warmer than the light freeze most areas north of I-10 saw last night. Southerly flow will bring moisture off the Gulf Friday with highs pushing toward 70 and the mid to upper 70’s on Saturday. Dewpoints creep back into the low to mid 60’s by Saturday afternoon and expect to see sea fog development over the cold nearshore waters pushing inland Saturday evening. If winds are weak enough Sunday morning could feature fairly widespread sea fog event.

Main part of this forecast will center around incoming California storm system late Sunday with potential for heavy rainfall and severe weather. Parameters appear to be coming together for both aspects over the region, but pesky mid level warm layer (cap) advecting northeast from the higher terrain of NE MX will play havoc with storm development and severe parameters Sunday afternoon and evening.

Heavy Rainfall:

Storm system looks fairly progressive, but moisture profiles by Sunday afternoon are fairly impressive for this time of year with PWS reaching toward 1.5 inches or very close to +2SD for early March. If the cap can be broken, then moisture profile will support some efficient rainfall production in updraft cores. We are still over 48 hours out from the onset of the event, so will not attempt to determine where any potential heavy rainfall could occur. Best guess at the moment would be east of I-45 and north of I-10 where capping will be weakest and upper level divergence (splitting of winds aloft) the best. Best rains on Monday night/Tuesday were roughly from Waller to Aldine to north of Baytown where 1.0-2.5 inches was common. While grounds are moist they are not saturated and flash flood guidance is still high over the area except along the mentioned line so think any flooding will be localized at this point.

Severe:

If the cap is broken during the late afternoon hours, severe parameters including both instability and wind shear look supportive of wind damage and tornadoes. Models may be overdoing the instability some given the expected influx of coastal sea fog which will likely limit heating on Sunday. Dynamics aloft will be increasing throughout the day which will help to lift and erode the mid level cap and expect thunderstorms to initiate in the 300-600pm time period Sunday evening north of HWY 105 as incoming surface frontal boundary becomes enough surface focus to punch through the mid level warm air. Surface based storms that can break through the cap will likely go severe with damaging winds and large hail being the main threat. Think the cap will be too strong around Matagorda Bay for much more than showers and not sure about Houston metro at this point as this will likely be the transition area to more severe weather over our NE counties roughly from Huntsville to High Island.

Will need to keep an eye on this system as it enters California tomorrow and into the US upper air network which will help sample the structure of this system and feed better data into the forecasting models. Should have a fairly good idea of impacts on our area by Saturday morning.

Post frontal air mass will again feature a fairly significant cold plunge for early March with 1040mb polar high settling into the central plains. If skies do clear out on Monday lows could be back around/near freezing by next Tuesday morning across portions of the area. Global models are not in good agreement on how quickly the polar air mass modifies and if/when rain chances might return next week.

Dear Srainhoutex:

NWS says GFS/ECMWF and even the NAM are highlighting an area of strong to severe thunderstorms late sunday over the northeastern areas. That's Madisonville to Conroe to Liberty for tornatdoes or straight line damaging winds. This will happen if storms get away from the nose of the cap that will intrude into the area from the SW. They say there's a strong cap in the SW areas. I would assume that includes the Houston metro. Bottom line, Srainhoutex: NWS seems to believe we're safe----for now.

What do you think?

[srainhoutx]

A potent storm system currently offshore of California will advance inland on Saturday as it treks E on Sunday ahead of a deepening Central/Eastern US trough setting the stage for a potential severe weather episode on Sunday basically from Austin on E across SE and E Texas mainly N of I-10 where there are growing indications the capping inversion will erode. A very strong RRQ 110kt jet could allow for strong to severe storms to develop and quickly shift E into Louisiana Sunday afternoon/evening as a strong Polar front drops S. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Day 3 Slight Risk for Severe Storms across potions of the Eastern half of Texas extending E into Louisiana to around Baton Rogue. The primary threat appears to be damaging straight line winds with some hail and a possible quick spin up of a tornado or two with the veering winds aloft.

The main concern is the strong cap and if it can erode and how quickly the Polar front arrives as suggested by the short term meso models. The severe threat looks a bit less S of I-10 this morning, but will need to be monitored as the storm system moves onshore tomorrow. The primary concern appears to be a squall line or linear storms -vs- rotating super cells, but if the cap does erode quicker across E Texas and Western Louisiana then some discrete rotating super cells may be possible Sunday afternoon.

Much colder air will arrive Sunday night with a possible freeze across our Northern zones early Monday. A very active pattern continues into mid next week as a Coastal Low develops Tuesday into Wednesday offering additional rain chances before we settle down and begin a slow warming trend by the end of next week.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
SRN ROCKIES TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WHILE DE-AMPLIFYING IN CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT. ASCENT PRECEDING THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOURAGE THE
ENEWD PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL WAVE FROM N-CNTRL TX TO THE ARKLATEX
TO THE TN VALLEY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. A SFC
TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND S OF THE FRONTAL WAVE OVER CNTRL/SRN TX
AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE ARCTIC AIR ADVANCING SWD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE. E OF THE DRYLINE...A LLJ WILL ENCOURAGE THE
NWD TRANSPORT OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY -- ORIGINATING FROM A RESERVOIR OF
1.5-1.8-INCH PW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PER GPS DATA.

...ERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EWD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...
ISOLATED STORMS...PERHAPS WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...MAY BE ONGOING
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SRN OK AND NRN TX
AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD DOME.
MEANWHILE...THE INFLUX OF MIDDLE/UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS E OF THE
DRYLINE BENEATH AN EML PLUME EMANATING FROM THE NRN MEXICAN PLATEAU
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO
E-CNTRL TX BY MID-DAY. AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREAD DIURNALLY ENHANCED BUOYANCY...SFC-BASED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF
STRONGER CAPPING ACCOMPANYING THE EML PLUME -- I.E. FROM THE
ARKLATEX TO NERN/E-CNTRL TX -- BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EWD/SEWD TO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SUN
NIGHT...WHILE THE SEWD ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PINCHES OFF
MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
WAVE AND EXTENDS THE SVR POTENTIAL TO THE COAST.

STRONG DEEP SHEAR OWING TO 50-70 KT OF H5 WSWLY/S WILL ASSIST STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH INITIALLY MIXED SUPERCELL/QLCS MODES OVER ERN TX
TRANSITIONING TO MORE LINEAR MODES FARTHER E. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND SVR HAIL JUST AFTER SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM ERN TX TO
NRN/CNTRL LA...WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH 40-55 KT OF SWLY
H85-H7 FLOW WILL EXIST AND ALSO YIELD SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
AS THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS ENEWD AND AWAY FROM RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WHILE WEAKENING SUN NIGHT...THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY.

..COHEN.. 02/28/2014

[redneckweather]

The only good thing I read in your post srain was rain and then a warming trend.