February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

The synoptic pattern as well as the analogs from the CPC continue to advertise 1985 ish signals which brought a record 14 inches in a 24 hour period to the Alamo City. There are several things that I have noticed in the trend the past several cycles. 1) The general 500MB pattern suggest a very deep trough developing from Western Canada on S in to the Great Basin into Northern Mexico as well as Texas and Central North America. 2) The SE Ridge is appearing once again which tends to favor a blocking pattern where the SE United States warms up and upper air disturbances ride S into Northern Mexico before eject ENE along the mean trough axis. 3) Very cold air is building across Western Canada and the Plains as multiple Winter Storms lay down fresh snow cover across areas that have had little of any moisture for the past 35-40 day with the dry NW flow aloft. 4) The temperature anomalies continue to increase to a much colder regime across the Great Basin, Inter Mountain West and Plains including Texas.

The pattern is certainly changing to a somewhat similar 'look' to that which we witnessed in late November/early December. What may favor our Region during this pattern change are the fact that our climatology suggests this is our Winter Weather 'Prime Time" and we are certainly seeing a 500MB pattern that may well delivery additional chances of wintry mischief. We will warm up over the weekend, a weak from will stall along the Coast and a big Winter Storm will cross the Central/Southern Plains into the Mid West and Great Lakes Region and on E into Mid Atlantic and NE. Strong to severe storm are looking likely across Louisiana and perhaps portions of E Texas and Arkansas next Monday into Tuesday as the Winter Storm treks across the Plains. A very strong Arctic air mass will plunge S into the Southern Plains and Texas in the wake of that Winter Storm and the next is a series of disturbances drop S into the Southern California/NW Mexico area and begin their trek across Southern Arizona/New Mexico and Texas. That pattern suggests some interesting days ahead that may well linger into the mid February time frame before the pattern once again transitions. We will see.

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[Kingwood31]

From Travis herzog:

Winter is far from over. A pattern change is underway that will initially send our temps soaring into the 70s Friday and Saturday, but the end result is more cold comes to Houston, starting with a quick shot of cold on Super Bowl Sunday followed by longer duration cold later next week. Here's why - the jet stream is splitting and shifting, which will allow more moisture to interact with arctic air over the western and central parts of the America and Canada. This will lay down a snow pack across the plains which keeps the arctic air refrigerated for longer as it slides south into Texas. That means more cold air is coming, and with added moisture from the splitting jet stream, perhaps more precipitation than what we've had so far in this relatively dry winter. I can only give you a macro view of this weather pattern for now, so it's too early to pinpoint when it gets colder, how cold it gets, and whether or not we get any precipitation with the cold. Specifics will come as we get into next week. But the message is clear: Winter ain't over yet in Texas.


So will see

[JulieC]

Katy ISD hasn't officially informed us yet, but I am sure we will be sitting in our classrooms as well on Presidents Day and Memorial Day. Not sure whether students will be joining us or not. One thing is certain, nobody is going to be happy about it.

[srainhoutx]

While it is still a week away, the 12Z Euro does suggest much colder air drops S into Texas as the Plains snow cover deepens with a couple of Winter Storms. If the 12Z Euro were to be correct, sleet/freezing rain/snow could develop across Central and SE Texas next Thursday into Friday. We will have to watch the trends over the next 4-5 days and see if this next Wintry Mischief threat is in fact our next event to monitor. We will see.

[don]

Yep Euro's been consistent on showing a winter storm for a big chunk of the state next week.

[wxman57]

Here's a 24-hr snowfall accumulation forecast valid from noon Thursday to noon Friday (next week). The dark blue line is the surface freezing line valid for noon next Friday. Note that the algorithm for calculating snow down here (in TX) is probably off. That 2-4" area and south may well be freezing rain and sleet. Contours on the map are accumulations in centimeters. Remember 2.5cm = 1 inch, so 10 cm would be about 4".

[srainhoutx]

The Climate Prediction Center continues to trend cold to much cold across the Inter Mountain West into the Plains. The SE Ridge continues to grow strong suggesting a very deep SW to NE trough extending back into the 4 Corners Region on NE into New England. The CPC is suggesting several waves or storm systems will pass beneath the developing Gulf of Alaska Ridge and head toward Northern California and then rounding the base of the trough in the SW/Baja Region before ejecting ENE.

[wxman57]

That's good news, srain! The Climate Prediction Center was 180 degrees off for December and January, predicting well above normal both months. Not its predicting well below normal. That means warm temps for me coming soon!

[Kingwood31]

What do u mean no existent? Meaning just liquid rain?

[wxman57]

Ed, keep in mind that the surface freeze line was south of Houston for much of the time BEFORE noon Friday. The map doesn't show snow falling at noon Friday, it shows snow falling somewhere between noon Thursday and noon Friday. Ignore the blue line as far as snow AT noon Friday.

[Paul Robison]

Does anyone have an opinion on Monday's and Tuesday's weather they'd like to share with me? Are we looking low- or high-impact thunderstorms both days?

[djjordan]

Nice cool morning to talk a morning stroll. Haven't been able to say that in a bit. Good Morning Weather Board.

[snowman65]

Weather channel saying rain and snow showers next Thursday and Friday for us here in Orange....wow..interesting this far out. Whats realky strange is that the temp is in the 40's.

[srainhoutx]

The warmer weather is welcomed after a week and a half of Wintry Weather events and much below normal temperatures as well as an extended dry NW flow aloft, but major changes are lurking.

The first in a series of Pacific storms will march beneath the developing Gulf of Alaska Ridge and provide some welcomed relief to drought parched Northern and Central California before trekking E across the Plains and dropping a verity of Wintry weather across the Central and Southern Plains, with liquid rain further S in the warm sector. A weak shallow frontal boundary will drop S and pull up stationary on Sunday along the Coast where a Coastal trough/low will develop. There is a chance of some rumbles of thunder as elevated storms along with over running rains develop Sunday night into Monday. A stronger upper air disturbance enters the picture across Southern California on Monday and begins to trek E in a very progressive flow. This feature may offer a bit more in storm chances over Louisiana and Southern Arkansas. A much stronger Winter Storm will cross the Southern Plains with this disturbance dropping additional snow across the Plains. In the wake of this storm system, much colder Arctic air will plunge S into Texas setting the stage for a potential later next week Winter Storm that will have its origin in the Arctic ~vs~ the Pacific. The upper air disturbance associated with the late next week wintry mischief potential appears to drop S from Siberia and cross Western Canada into the Great Basin. The various Global guidance have differing solutions, but the Euro has been extremely stable for the past 4-5 cycles suggesting a progressive flow and wintry mischief will develop across Central and SE Texas into SW Louisiana. The GFS and Canadian are suggesting a much slower ejection of this feature from Southern California/NW Mexico. The progressive flow has credence ~vs~ a slower moving system, but being a week out, we will need to monitor the trends over the next several days. All in all the Trough in the West and cold air building across our source Regions of Eastern Alaska/Western Canada raise an eyebrow. With the increasing moisture across the West into the Central/Southern Plains in the form of snow tends to favor much less in the way of air mass modification and certainly warrants attention in the day ahead. As always, we will see.

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00Z Euro:

06Z GFS:

00Z Canadian:

2 Meter Temps Next Thursday:

Day 6 to 7 QPF:

[wxman57]

The 00Z Euro has 2-4" of snow for SE TX next Thursday/Friday (1-3" in Houston). Don't hold your breath, though. I'm sure the snow area will change in future runs. I don't expect the models to have a good handle on things until around Tuesday.

[cperk]

Well one things for sure precip may not be an issue.

[Kingwood31]

Think by next Monday or Tuesday if the models keep showing this they will start to mention it on tv? Itold my mom watch for next week and she said she saw the 7 day forecast and it showed sunny skies with highs in the 50's.i told her that can't be trusted that far out lol

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS did trend colder toward what the Euro has been suggesting, but still remains out of phase with a much slower ejection of the upper air disturbance across Northern Mexico into New Mexico and the Southern Plains ~vs~ the Euro. Since the origin of this feature is across the Arctic, I suspect we will not have any real idea of what the sensible weather potential may actually be until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1052 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014

VALID 12Z MON FEB 03 2014 - 12Z FRI FEB 07 2014


...ONGOING THREAT OF HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER WITH NEW, WETTER
REGIME...


STUCK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE
VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS
HAVE--CHARACTERISTICALLY--WAFFLED ABOUT THE MEANS, SO AVOIDED
SURFING ANY ONE OF THEIR NOISY CYCLES. THERE APPEARS TO BE NO
FUNDAMENTAL TRENDING FROM THE ASSESSMENT MADE 24 HOURS AGO LOOKING
AT THE WHOLE OF THE GUIDANCE, SO THE SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER THREATS
REMAIN.

EAST OF THE ROCKIES...

A QUICK-MOVING IMPULSE IS STILL POISED TO PAINT A NARROW STRIPE OF
SNOW AND ICE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION MONDAY. THE NEXT BUNDLE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS MARKED BY
PHASING, WITH A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY, WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE COLD-AIR DAMMING
IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOAKING RAINS
AND SOME CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE POLAR
FRONT. LATE NEXT WEEK, RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
KICK IN A NEW ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH, WITH MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MOISTURE
SHIELD.

THE WEST...

A PRONOUNCED SPLIT IN THE FLOW WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION OVER
DIFFERENT REGIONS, WITH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE LEESIDE OF THE
NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN RELATIVE MINIMUMS. THE SECOND HALF
OF THE PERIOD LOOKS WETTER THAN THE FIRST, WITH THE COASTAL
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NETTING THE MOST
LIQUID-EQUIVALENT.


CISCO

[Kingwood31]

is this for thur/fri or the wknd next week?

[srainhoutx]

is this for thur/fri or the wknd next week?

This is for the system expected later next week.