February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

[weatherguy425]

Let us not forget about the 2/1 - 2/3 time-frame, especially from a regional standpoint. First in a series of storm could bring decent rain, and a few strong storm in the warm core and significant winter weather to northern Texas in the cold core.

Edit: Oops, Srain hit it all!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z suite of operational guidance suggest we will begin a warming trend as we begin the first of February. That warm up appears to be rather short as a front sags S and pulls up stationary along the Coast on Sunday. As a Coastal wave develops, very cold air will begin to head S into the Plains as a potent upper air disturbance drops S from the Great Basin into Mexico. There are indications that a Winter Storm will begin to develop by Monday into Tuesday as lee side cyclogenesis or a surface low develops along the Eastern slopes of New Mexico/Colorado. As the Arctic air mass sinks further S into Texas a verity of weather including cold sector wintry mischief and warm sector rains and perhaps some strong to possibly severe storms are possible. There are some indications that additional upper air energy will be arriving after the Arctic front passes offshore and additional wintry weather may be possible across portions of our Region. We will see.

12Z Euro:

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12Z GFS:

12Z Canadian:

[srainhoutx]

One other thing that we should monitor is the amount of snow that will develop across the Central Plains later this week. One thing that has been missing across the Plains the past month or so is a healthy snow pack. That tends to favor more in the way of air mass modification and as we witnessed yesterday, with out a snow pack to our N, the models can tend to over estimated the cold. If we see that snow pack begin to develop, then Arctic air masses tend to see less modification as the push S into our Region. Additional snow is expect early next week across the Plains as the pattern becomes much more active and moisture returns where it has been lacking.

[cristina6871]

Frank Billingsly (sp?) gave a teaser of a potential "round 3" and a "frigid February." I didn't see his forecast as I had to leave before it came on. Any thoughts?

[TexasMetBlake]

Frank and I stay in contact on a regular basis. I suspect he'll start backing off that but we'll see. Still very early to be saying yay or nay.

[Paul Robison]

Frank and I stay in contact on a regular basis. I suspect he'll start backing off that but we'll see. Still very early to be saying yay or nay.

I'm confused. Is next week's weather event an ice storm or a severe thunderstorm event?

[don]

0z GFS practically shows an ice storm next Saturday, with temps hovering around the freezing mark, with plenty of precip.

Heres a meteogram for Hooks look at hours 216-228

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDWH

[djjordan]

One thing is for sure .... it'll be unsettled as we start Feb. and the rollercoaster will continue.

[don]

0z Euro also shows heavy precipitation with temperatures in the low 30s fwiw.

[djmike]

Um, I know WB sites can be fairly inaccurate, but in my 10 day it is showing another ice storm for Thurs 2/6 timeframe. Im sure it will dissapear within time, but was just shocked to see it forecasting a round 3!! My gosh, if that were to come true, it would be record shattering I would think and for the first time this winter, I'd have to say Im starting to get really tired of the wintery precip. First time was very exciting and cool to see, second time was eh, ok to see (I know by noon Tuesday I didnt care to look outside anymore, so i put on a movie..lol) and if this possibly does happen a 3rd time, yeah, I'd have to say Im over it. So over being entombed in ice inside my home again. As I said, Im sure it will disappear the closer we get, but just the fact that its showing that (at this time) is amazing.

[srainhoutx]

The synoptic pattern as well as the analogs from the CPC continue to advertise 1985 ish signals which brought a record 14 inches in a 24 hour period to the Alamo City. There are several things that I have noticed in the trend the past several cycles. 1) The general 500MB pattern suggest a very deep trough developing from Western Canada on S in to the Great Basin into Northern Mexico as well as Texas and Central North America. 2) The SE Ridge is appearing once again which tends to favor a blocking pattern where the SE United States warms up and upper air disturbances ride S into Northern Mexico before eject ENE along the mean trough axis. 3) Very cold air is building across Western Canada and the Plains as multiple Winter Storms lay down fresh snow cover across areas that have had little of any moisture for the past 35-40 day with the dry NW flow aloft. 4) The temperature anomalies continue to increase to a much colder regime across the Great Basin, Inter Mountain West and Plains including Texas.

The pattern is certainly changing to a somewhat similar 'look' to that which we witnessed in late November/early December. What may favor our Region during this pattern change are the fact that our climatology suggests this is our Winter Weather 'Prime Time" and we are certainly seeing a 500MB pattern that may well delivery additional chances of wintry mischief. We will warm up over the weekend, a weak from will stall along the Coast and a big Winter Storm will cross the Central/Southern Plains into the Mid West and Great Lakes Region and on E into Mid Atlantic and NE. Strong to severe storm are looking likely across Louisiana and perhaps portions of E Texas and Arkansas next Monday into Tuesday as the Winter Storm treks across the Plains. A very strong Arctic air mass will plunge S into the Southern Plains and Texas in the wake of that Winter Storm and the next is a series of disturbances drop S into the Southern California/NW Mexico area and begin their trek across Southern Arizona/New Mexico and Texas. That pattern suggests some interesting days ahead that may well linger into the mid February time frame before the pattern once again transitions. We will see.

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[Kingwood31]

From Travis herzog:

Winter is far from over. A pattern change is underway that will initially send our temps soaring into the 70s Friday and Saturday, but the end result is more cold comes to Houston, starting with a quick shot of cold on Super Bowl Sunday followed by longer duration cold later next week. Here's why - the jet stream is splitting and shifting, which will allow more moisture to interact with arctic air over the western and central parts of the America and Canada. This will lay down a snow pack across the plains which keeps the arctic air refrigerated for longer as it slides south into Texas. That means more cold air is coming, and with added moisture from the splitting jet stream, perhaps more precipitation than what we've had so far in this relatively dry winter. I can only give you a macro view of this weather pattern for now, so it's too early to pinpoint when it gets colder, how cold it gets, and whether or not we get any precipitation with the cold. Specifics will come as we get into next week. But the message is clear: Winter ain't over yet in Texas.


So will see

[JulieC]

Katy ISD hasn't officially informed us yet, but I am sure we will be sitting in our classrooms as well on Presidents Day and Memorial Day. Not sure whether students will be joining us or not. One thing is certain, nobody is going to be happy about it.

[srainhoutx]

While it is still a week away, the 12Z Euro does suggest much colder air drops S into Texas as the Plains snow cover deepens with a couple of Winter Storms. If the 12Z Euro were to be correct, sleet/freezing rain/snow could develop across Central and SE Texas next Thursday into Friday. We will have to watch the trends over the next 4-5 days and see if this next Wintry Mischief threat is in fact our next event to monitor. We will see.

[don]

Yep Euro's been consistent on showing a winter storm for a big chunk of the state next week.

[wxman57]

Here's a 24-hr snowfall accumulation forecast valid from noon Thursday to noon Friday (next week). The dark blue line is the surface freezing line valid for noon next Friday. Note that the algorithm for calculating snow down here (in TX) is probably off. That 2-4" area and south may well be freezing rain and sleet. Contours on the map are accumulations in centimeters. Remember 2.5cm = 1 inch, so 10 cm would be about 4".

[srainhoutx]

The Climate Prediction Center continues to trend cold to much cold across the Inter Mountain West into the Plains. The SE Ridge continues to grow strong suggesting a very deep SW to NE trough extending back into the 4 Corners Region on NE into New England. The CPC is suggesting several waves or storm systems will pass beneath the developing Gulf of Alaska Ridge and head toward Northern California and then rounding the base of the trough in the SW/Baja Region before ejecting ENE.

[wxman57]

That's good news, srain! The Climate Prediction Center was 180 degrees off for December and January, predicting well above normal both months. Not its predicting well below normal. That means warm temps for me coming soon!

[Kingwood31]

What do u mean no existent? Meaning just liquid rain?

[wxman57]

Ed, keep in mind that the surface freeze line was south of Houston for much of the time BEFORE noon Friday. The map doesn't show snow falling at noon Friday, it shows snow falling somewhere between noon Thursday and noon Friday. Ignore the blue line as far as snow AT noon Friday.