February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Post Reply
User avatar
don
Posts: 2576
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Yep I saw the same thing, i think at the very least we'll definitely have something to talk about by this weekend, as I expect the models to start "sniffing" out finer details by then, that cant be seen in the lower resolution range.
ticka1
Posts: 1265
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:02 pm
Location: Baytown/Mont Belvieu
Contact:

cperk wrote:
ticka1 wrote:models busted with jan 28th event - i have no faith in what they say going forward.

I understand your frustration but the models are not perfect the NWS offices are under a gun when it comes to severe weather events, they have to produce a forecast to warn the public days in advance I would hate to have their job.
i hereby eat crow with my post. i have no patience.
HouTXmetro
Posts: 78
Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2010 10:39 pm
Location: Houston, TX (Medical Center/Reliant Park)
Contact:

What's disappointing about this week is most models were forecasting a changeover to snow for this event. Pro-Mets assured us the air would be Plenty cold and below freezing therefore supporting snow after initial mix. The only question was QPF amounts. It seemed like the opposite occured. Temps struggled to get as low as advertised in the SE TX Weather Dome, the warm nose wreaked havoc with P-types, but the moisture was there.

Can't gripe to much though. 2 events, albeit minor in less than 7 days for this neck of the woods is a Extremely RARE.
weatherguy425
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 830
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:45 pm
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Contact:

All,

I think the moral of this story is that 'it ain't over 'til it's over'. Remember... TWO winter weather events within ONE week... in SETX?


Nothing to snark at. And, actually, many did mention that P-Type would be an issue - on this forum and others. However, while widespread heavy snow did not fall - there certainly were travel issues. Speaking from a forecasting standpoint, I do believe NWS, and city officials made the right call. We would have had many., many accidents, had the 'normal' amount of people been commuting through the morning. There are icy spots, and yes, there have been closures.


Now, on to actual weather. The CMC, ECMWF, and occasionally the GFS all advertise a huge pattern change starting late this weekend. Also, teleconnections (-PNA, -EPO/WPO, and -AO) support cold and unsettled weather across the inter-mountain west - eastward! Gone is the ridging in the southwest, now replaced with troughing. At the same time, western and northwestern Canada is forecasted to cool dramatically - the stage is set for storm(s) to traverse the entire Southern Plains with a variety of impacts...

Each storm laying down snow-pack, and tapping into a frigid Canadian air-mass. Time will tell what actually occurs, but y'all, active weather remains on the horizon.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2576
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Add 12z Euro to the mix, its showing a winter storm across the central and southern half of the state around the 7th & 8th also...
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

don wrote:Add 12z Euro to the mix, its showing a winter storm across the central and southern half of the state around the 7th & 8th also...
If the Euro is correct, that storm will have much colder air entrenched across our Region as a potent upper low drops S into Mexico and treks E across Texas. While it is too soon to know the 'finer details', temperatures could tumble to the -10 to -20C range at 850MB suggesting our source Region of Eastern Alaska/Western Canada will unload a very chilly Arctic air mass with a cross Polar flow from Siberia. We will see.
01282014 12Z Euro f216.gif
01282014 12Z GEFS gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_41.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

HouTXmetro wrote:What's disappointing about this week is most models were forecasting a changeover to snow for this event. Pro-Mets assured us the air would be Plenty cold and below freezing therefore supporting snow after initial mix. The only question was QPF amounts. It seemed like the opposite occured. Temps struggled to get as low as advertised in the SE TX Weather Dome, the warm nose wreaked havoc with P-types, but the moisture was there.

Can't gripe to much though. 2 events, albeit minor in less than 7 days for this neck of the woods is a Extremely RARE.
It is very rare to see two winter events in less than a week. Even 1973 or 1985 could not do that.
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

February has some of the biggest freezes like 1895, 1899, 1951, 1985, and 1989. It also have the heaviest snowfall totals, 1895 and 1960.
User avatar
weatherag
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 57
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 2:59 pm
Location: Richmond, TX
Contact:

A nice swath of 2-4 inch snowfall over the Hill Country and southeast Texas on the Euro...and the upper level trof axis is still hanging back over New Mexico at hour 240.
'There's a spirit can ne'er be told...'
TexasMetBlake
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 839
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:03 pm
Location: Spring/Woodlands
Contact:

18z gfs is close but beyond truncation so we'll have to watch from afar to see what model is going to give in: the bitterly cold and snowy 12z Euro or the warmer and wet 18z gfs.

As we saw with the last two events now, the models will waffle up until the very start of the event and even then will often be surprised by the placement and qpf that verifies that the models ''didn't pick up on.''

Btw, an all-time record high in Alaska today. Port Alsworth, AK: 62°F. Not only is it a record for the township but it's an all-time record high for January for the entire state! Pretty simple meteorology: strong ridging up north over the Alaska, cold in the lower 48 (generally east of the Rockies).

I can't believe I'm saying this but is it Spring yet? lol. I'm a cold weather lover but dang...
ticka1
Posts: 1265
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:02 pm
Location: Baytown/Mont Belvieu
Contact:

looks like rain and thunder this weekend or early next week!
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The Climate Prediction Center Update regarding the major pattern change expected across North America over the next 10 days:

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE JANUARY 28 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 03 - 07 2014

TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PREDICTING AN AMPLIFIED
500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER
THE ALEUTIANS WHILE A TROUGH IS PREDICTED SOUTH OF GREENLAND. FLOW AROUND THESE
TWO HIGH LATITUDE CIRCULATION FEATURES IS FORECAST TO ALLOW A DEEP, POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CONUS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
TROUGH, RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MODEL SPREAD IS
RELATIVELY HIGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN PACIFIC DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
TODAY'S 00Z, YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND TODAY'S 06Z GEFS WERE
INCLUDED IN THE MANUAL BLEND AS THESE MODELS HAVE THE HIGH ANOMALY CORRELATION
SCORES DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS. THE RESULTANT PATTERN IN THE 500-HPA MANUAL
BLEND INCLUDES A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER ALASKA, A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN CONUS, AND A RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST.


THE DEEP TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND WESTERN CONUS STRONGLY
FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THESE AREAS.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DUE
TO RIDGING FORECAST EAST OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE TROUGH FORECAST
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN COAST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
FORECAST BOUNDARY. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF
YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S
12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S
12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL OF THE DAY: 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, YESTERDAY'S 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN,AND TODAY'S 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN (TIED)

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY
RELATIVELY HIGH MODEL SPREAD OVER THE PACIFIC SECTOR.
Attachments
01282014 CPC 610temp_new.gif
01282014 CPC 610prcp_new.gif
01282014 CPC Analogs 610analog_off.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

weatherguy425 wrote:All,

I think the moral of this story is that 'it ain't over 'til it's over'. Remember... TWO winter weather events within ONE week... in SETX?


Nothing to snark at. And, actually, many did mention that P-Type would be an issue - on this forum and others. However, while widespread heavy snow did not fall - there certainly were travel issues. Speaking from a forecasting standpoint, I do believe NWS, and city officials made the right call. We would have had many., many accidents, had the 'normal' amount of people been commuting through the morning. There are icy spots, and yes, there have been closures.


Now, on to actual weather. The CMC, ECMWF, and occasionally the GFS all advertise a huge pattern change starting late this weekend. Also, teleconnections (-PNA, -EPO/WPO, and -AO) support cold and unsettled weather across the inter-mountain west - eastward! Gone is the ridging in the southwest, now replaced with troughing. At the same time, western and northwestern Canada is forecasted to cool dramatically - the stage is set for storm(s) to traverse the entire Southern Plains with a variety of impacts...

Each storm laying down snow-pack, and tapping into a frigid Canadian air-mass. Time will tell what actually occurs, but y'all, active weather remains on the horizon.
So like tornadoes and snow in one day - heck after two winter storms in one week, anything can happen in SE TX.
I hope this isn't off topic but does anyone know if we're going into an El Nino Summer? Or too early to tell?
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5361
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

HouTXmetro wrote:What's disappointing about this week is most models were forecasting a changeover to snow for this event. Pro-Mets assured us the air would be Plenty cold and below freezing therefore supporting snow after initial mix. The only question was QPF amounts. It seemed like the opposite occured. Temps struggled to get as low as advertised in the SE TX Weather Dome, the warm nose wreaked havoc with P-types, but the moisture was there.
Speaking of...there was a question posed on another forum about the warmer pocket of air over the Houston area overnight. You could clearly see a wedge of warmer surface temps across SE Texas, extending north towards the Tyler/Longview areas. It was much colder to the west and northwest, and also to the east and northeast. The poster was asking if this was caused by the Ouachita mountains (or something else) preventing the colder air to plow into SE Texas?

I'm curious too...has anyone looked into this?
mcheer23
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 530
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:15 am
Location: Missouri City/ Sugar Land
Contact:

00Z GFS :D Too bad it's in fantasy world
TexasMetBlake
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 839
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:03 pm
Location: Spring/Woodlands
Contact:

mcheer23 wrote:00Z GFS :D Too bad it's in fantasy world
Hmmm, 00z looks warmer than 18z. Still in the long range after truncation. Call me when we're inside 5 days.
HouTXmetro
Posts: 78
Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2010 10:39 pm
Location: Houston, TX (Medical Center/Reliant Park)
Contact:

[quote="jasons"][quote="HouTXmetro"]What's disappointing about this week is most models were forecasting a changeover to snow for this event. Pro-Mets assured us the air would be Plenty cold and below freezing therefore supporting snow after initial mix. The only question was QPF amounts. It seemed like the opposite occured. Temps struggled to get as low as advertised in the SE TX Weather Dome, the warm nose wreaked havoc with P-types, but the moisture was there.[/quote]

Speaking of...there was a question posed on another forum about the warmer pocket of air over the Houston area overnight. You could clearly see a wedge of warmer surface temps across SE Texas, extending north towards the Tyler/Longview areas. It was much colder to the west and northwest, and also to the east and northeast. The poster was asking if this was caused by the Ouachita mountains (or something else) preventing the colder air to plow into SE Texas?

I'm curious too...has anyone looked into this?[/quote]

I can only conclude that's the reason maybe partially urban Heat Island as well. But I wonder if any pro mets have looked into this phenomena. Same think happened last event.
TexasMetBlake
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 839
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:03 pm
Location: Spring/Woodlands
Contact:

00z Euro isn't as exciting for us. Keeps the cut-off low fairly far to our north cutting across the DFW area on Feb. 6th dropping heavy snow over places like San Angelo. It also appears to be a bit slower with the low as well before shearing it out at 216 hours.

Keep in mind that any adjustment to the south, even 150 miles will make or break this next winter weather event for us.

Btw, Brownsville reporting heavy rainfall now with a temp of 32 degrees. Crazy huh. They didn't record snow or ice (to my knowledge) from 1895 to 2004 and since then it seems like they have been under a Winter Storm Warning two or three times since then. Craziness...
nuby3
Posts: 387
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2010 10:25 pm
Location: THE WOODLANDS PARKWAY and FM 2978
Contact:

I don't know, Ed. I think we should go ahead and assume that whatever the next model run is, is what is going to happen. Might also try asking Zoltar
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a synoptic pattern change from that of a Western Ridge/Eastern trough to a pattern that becomes more zonal with a split flow developing across the Western half of the Lower 48. Changes begin to lurk near the Day 4-5 time frame as differences are seen via the operation GFS and Euro. The guidance generally agree that a upper air disturbance drops S into Northern Mexico as the 500MB trough pattern shifts back to the W and a positive trough regime develops from the Desert SW on NE across New Mexico into the Upper Mid West. The Global models suggest a upper low will drop S into Mexico, but the GFS shears out this feature while the Euro suggests a stronger more closed core low.

It does appear that a weak cold front will push S and stall near the Coast increasing our rain chances by Friday. As the front stalls, a Coastal wave develops allowing over running light to moderate rain to spread N into Central and SE Texas and Louisiana. The SPC does mention the potential for stronger storms to develop across the NW Gulf Region as lee side cyclogenesis becomes possible as that upper low ejects from Mexico into the Southern Plains around a week from today or next Tuesday. As is typical with any synoptic large scale pattern change, there tends to be a great deal of run to run volatility but it does appear we are transitioning to a pattern that will increase our rain chances across Central/N/ SE Texas and on E where dry conditions have plagued our Region since the pesky NW flow aloft developed. As the pattern further changes to that of a trough across the West and a SE Ridge, additional storminess is suggested as very cold air pools across Western Canada into the Inter Mountain West and Plains as Pacific storms drop S into California and the Baja Region of NW Mexico and tap Eastern Pacific moisture. This type of pattern in early February tends to suggest a very unsettled weather pattern with cold air intrusions into our Region as Winter Storms wrap up across the Southern Plains and pull much colder air S from Western Canada. The storm track also tends to favor dropping heavy snow across the Plains that has been lacking and adding to less air mass modification as the very cold air pushes S. Time will tell, but the pattern suggests we have not seen the last of wintry mischief across our Region extending back into New Mexico, The Panhandle/Central N and Eastern Texas as well as Oklahoma. We will see.
01292014 00Z Euro GFS CMC Compare test8.gif
01292014 10Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot], Semrush [Bot] and 83 guests