February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

[ticka1]

looks like rain and thunder this weekend or early next week!

[srainhoutx]

The Climate Prediction Center Update regarding the major pattern change expected across North America over the next 10 days:

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE JANUARY 28 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 03 - 07 2014

TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PREDICTING AN AMPLIFIED
500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER
THE ALEUTIANS WHILE A TROUGH IS PREDICTED SOUTH OF GREENLAND. FLOW AROUND THESE
TWO HIGH LATITUDE CIRCULATION FEATURES IS FORECAST TO ALLOW A DEEP, POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CONUS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
TROUGH, RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MODEL SPREAD IS
RELATIVELY HIGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN PACIFIC DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
TODAY'S 00Z, YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND TODAY'S 06Z GEFS WERE
INCLUDED IN THE MANUAL BLEND AS THESE MODELS HAVE THE HIGH ANOMALY CORRELATION
SCORES DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS. THE RESULTANT PATTERN IN THE 500-HPA MANUAL
BLEND INCLUDES A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER ALASKA, A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN CONUS, AND A RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST.

THE DEEP TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND WESTERN CONUS STRONGLY
FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THESE AREAS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DUE
TO RIDGING FORECAST EAST OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE TROUGH FORECAST
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN COAST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
FORECAST BOUNDARY. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF
YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S
12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S
12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL OF THE DAY: 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, YESTERDAY'S 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN,AND TODAY'S 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN (TIED)

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY
RELATIVELY HIGH MODEL SPREAD OVER THE PACIFIC SECTOR.

[Texaspirate11]

All,

I think the moral of this story is that 'it ain't over 'til it's over'. Remember... TWO winter weather events within ONE week... in SETX?


Nothing to snark at. And, actually, many did mention that P-Type would be an issue - on this forum and others. However, while widespread heavy snow did not fall - there certainly were travel issues. Speaking from a forecasting standpoint, I do believe NWS, and city officials made the right call. We would have had many., many accidents, had the 'normal' amount of people been commuting through the morning. There are icy spots, and yes, there have been closures.


Now, on to actual weather. The CMC, ECMWF, and occasionally the GFS all advertise a huge pattern change starting late this weekend. Also, teleconnections (-PNA, -EPO/WPO, and -AO) support cold and unsettled weather across the inter-mountain west - eastward! Gone is the ridging in the southwest, now replaced with troughing. At the same time, western and northwestern Canada is forecasted to cool dramatically - the stage is set for storm(s) to traverse the entire Southern Plains with a variety of impacts...

Each storm laying down snow-pack, and tapping into a frigid Canadian air-mass. Time will tell what actually occurs, but y'all, active weather remains on the horizon.

So like tornadoes and snow in one day - heck after two winter storms in one week, anything can happen in SE TX.
I hope this isn't off topic but does anyone know if we're going into an El Nino Summer? Or too early to tell?

[jasons2k]

What's disappointing about this week is most models were forecasting a changeover to snow for this event. Pro-Mets assured us the air would be Plenty cold and below freezing therefore supporting snow after initial mix. The only question was QPF amounts. It seemed like the opposite occured. Temps struggled to get as low as advertised in the SE TX Weather Dome, the warm nose wreaked havoc with P-types, but the moisture was there.

Speaking of...there was a question posed on another forum about the warmer pocket of air over the Houston area overnight. You could clearly see a wedge of warmer surface temps across SE Texas, extending north towards the Tyler/Longview areas. It was much colder to the west and northwest, and also to the east and northeast. The poster was asking if this was caused by the Ouachita mountains (or something else) preventing the colder air to plow into SE Texas?

I'm curious too...has anyone looked into this?

[mcheer23]

00Z GFS Too bad it's in fantasy world

[TexasMetBlake]

00Z GFS Too bad it's in fantasy world

Hmmm, 00z looks warmer than 18z. Still in the long range after truncation. Call me when we're inside 5 days.

[HouTXmetro]

[quote="jasons"][quote="HouTXmetro"]What's disappointing about this week is most models were forecasting a changeover to snow for this event. Pro-Mets assured us the air would be Plenty cold and below freezing therefore supporting snow after initial mix. The only question was QPF amounts. It seemed like the opposite occured. Temps struggled to get as low as advertised in the SE TX Weather Dome, the warm nose wreaked havoc with P-types, but the moisture was there.[/quote]

Speaking of...there was a question posed on another forum about the warmer pocket of air over the Houston area overnight. You could clearly see a wedge of warmer surface temps across SE Texas, extending north towards the Tyler/Longview areas. It was much colder to the west and northwest, and also to the east and northeast. The poster was asking if this was caused by the Ouachita mountains (or something else) preventing the colder air to plow into SE Texas?

I'm curious too...has anyone looked into this?[/quote]

I can only conclude that's the reason maybe partially urban Heat Island as well. But I wonder if any pro mets have looked into this phenomena. Same think happened last event.

[TexasMetBlake]

00z Euro isn't as exciting for us. Keeps the cut-off low fairly far to our north cutting across the DFW area on Feb. 6th dropping heavy snow over places like San Angelo. It also appears to be a bit slower with the low as well before shearing it out at 216 hours.

Keep in mind that any adjustment to the south, even 150 miles will make or break this next winter weather event for us.

Btw, Brownsville reporting heavy rainfall now with a temp of 32 degrees. Crazy huh. They didn't record snow or ice (to my knowledge) from 1895 to 2004 and since then it seems like they have been under a Winter Storm Warning two or three times since then. Craziness...

[nuby3]

I don't know, Ed. I think we should go ahead and assume that whatever the next model run is, is what is going to happen. Might also try asking Zoltar

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a synoptic pattern change from that of a Western Ridge/Eastern trough to a pattern that becomes more zonal with a split flow developing across the Western half of the Lower 48. Changes begin to lurk near the Day 4-5 time frame as differences are seen via the operation GFS and Euro. The guidance generally agree that a upper air disturbance drops S into Northern Mexico as the 500MB trough pattern shifts back to the W and a positive trough regime develops from the Desert SW on NE across New Mexico into the Upper Mid West. The Global models suggest a upper low will drop S into Mexico, but the GFS shears out this feature while the Euro suggests a stronger more closed core low.

It does appear that a weak cold front will push S and stall near the Coast increasing our rain chances by Friday. As the front stalls, a Coastal wave develops allowing over running light to moderate rain to spread N into Central and SE Texas and Louisiana. The SPC does mention the potential for stronger storms to develop across the NW Gulf Region as lee side cyclogenesis becomes possible as that upper low ejects from Mexico into the Southern Plains around a week from today or next Tuesday. As is typical with any synoptic large scale pattern change, there tends to be a great deal of run to run volatility but it does appear we are transitioning to a pattern that will increase our rain chances across Central/N/ SE Texas and on E where dry conditions have plagued our Region since the pesky NW flow aloft developed. As the pattern further changes to that of a trough across the West and a SE Ridge, additional storminess is suggested as very cold air pools across Western Canada into the Inter Mountain West and Plains as Pacific storms drop S into California and the Baja Region of NW Mexico and tap Eastern Pacific moisture. This type of pattern in early February tends to suggest a very unsettled weather pattern with cold air intrusions into our Region as Winter Storms wrap up across the Southern Plains and pull much colder air S from Western Canada. The storm track also tends to favor dropping heavy snow across the Plains that has been lacking and adding to less air mass modification as the very cold air pushes S. Time will tell, but the pattern suggests we have not seen the last of wintry mischief across our Region extending back into New Mexico, The Panhandle/Central N and Eastern Texas as well as Oklahoma. We will see.

[weatherguy425]

Let us not forget about the 2/1 - 2/3 time-frame, especially from a regional standpoint. First in a series of storm could bring decent rain, and a few strong storm in the warm core and significant winter weather to northern Texas in the cold core.

Edit: Oops, Srain hit it all!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z suite of operational guidance suggest we will begin a warming trend as we begin the first of February. That warm up appears to be rather short as a front sags S and pulls up stationary along the Coast on Sunday. As a Coastal wave develops, very cold air will begin to head S into the Plains as a potent upper air disturbance drops S from the Great Basin into Mexico. There are indications that a Winter Storm will begin to develop by Monday into Tuesday as lee side cyclogenesis or a surface low develops along the Eastern slopes of New Mexico/Colorado. As the Arctic air mass sinks further S into Texas a verity of weather including cold sector wintry mischief and warm sector rains and perhaps some strong to possibly severe storms are possible. There are some indications that additional upper air energy will be arriving after the Arctic front passes offshore and additional wintry weather may be possible across portions of our Region. We will see.

12Z Euro:

The attachment 01292014 12Z Euro f144.gif is no longer available

12Z GFS:

12Z Canadian:

[srainhoutx]

One other thing that we should monitor is the amount of snow that will develop across the Central Plains later this week. One thing that has been missing across the Plains the past month or so is a healthy snow pack. That tends to favor more in the way of air mass modification and as we witnessed yesterday, with out a snow pack to our N, the models can tend to over estimated the cold. If we see that snow pack begin to develop, then Arctic air masses tend to see less modification as the push S into our Region. Additional snow is expect early next week across the Plains as the pattern becomes much more active and moisture returns where it has been lacking.

[cristina6871]

Frank Billingsly (sp?) gave a teaser of a potential "round 3" and a "frigid February." I didn't see his forecast as I had to leave before it came on. Any thoughts?

[TexasMetBlake]

Frank and I stay in contact on a regular basis. I suspect he'll start backing off that but we'll see. Still very early to be saying yay or nay.

[Paul Robison]

Frank and I stay in contact on a regular basis. I suspect he'll start backing off that but we'll see. Still very early to be saying yay or nay.

I'm confused. Is next week's weather event an ice storm or a severe thunderstorm event?

[don]

0z GFS practically shows an ice storm next Saturday, with temps hovering around the freezing mark, with plenty of precip.

Heres a meteogram for Hooks look at hours 216-228

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDWH

[djjordan]

One thing is for sure .... it'll be unsettled as we start Feb. and the rollercoaster will continue.

[don]

0z Euro also shows heavy precipitation with temperatures in the low 30s fwiw.

[djmike]

Um, I know WB sites can be fairly inaccurate, but in my 10 day it is showing another ice storm for Thurs 2/6 timeframe. Im sure it will dissapear within time, but was just shocked to see it forecasting a round 3!! My gosh, if that were to come true, it would be record shattering I would think and for the first time this winter, I'd have to say Im starting to get really tired of the wintery precip. First time was very exciting and cool to see, second time was eh, ok to see (I know by noon Tuesday I didnt care to look outside anymore, so i put on a movie..lol) and if this possibly does happen a 3rd time, yeah, I'd have to say Im over it. So over being entombed in ice inside my home again. As I said, Im sure it will disappear the closer we get, but just the fact that its showing that (at this time) is amazing.