February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

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weatherguy425
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February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

Post by weatherguy425 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:13 pm

Here's to hoping MORE of Texas gets in on the action. Tired of sub-zero dewpoints up here in the 'frozen tundra'!

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Mr. T
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Re: February: Will The Active Pattern Continue?

Post by Mr. T » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:20 pm

Paul Baustista wrote:HERES TO nother month of negativity and model hugging

Did you accidentally put an "s" in the middle of your last name?

weatherguy425
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Re: February: Will The Active Pattern Continue?

Post by weatherguy425 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:27 pm

And, as Srainhoutx mentioned, the indices, as well as various runs and ensembles of the Global models indicate hat an active pattern will continue across the inter-mountain west, southern plains, and deep south through the next couple of weeks.

PNA is trending neutral and should go negative over the next week - lots of troughing out west....
PNA.png


EPO values are negative, and should continue to dive. Models have struggled with extended-range EPO/WPO value forecasts, so take the + values with a grain of salt at this point.
EPO.png


AND, the WPO (EPO's best friend) is also negative.
wpo.png

Sound familiar? Similar to late November & early December weather setups. Speaking from a north Texas stand-point, I could use a good winter storm, or moisture in any for for that matter!

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Re: February: Will The Active Pattern Continue?

Post by Mr. T » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:30 pm

THAT GUY WHO USED TO TYPE IN ALL CAPS wrote:yes i did. but its too late to fix that now Tyler. ahhh i remember the good old days. i remember your fights with hardcoreweather.


And the spine tingling mystery is solved...

I'm pretty sure James is somewhere tracking chemtrails and photogenic ghosts right about now. Dude was never right, boy I tell you what

But to get this back on topic before the hammer is struck, February definitely looks like yet another month below normal. Musings of a tanking -AO teleconnection with a continued near record blocking pattern across the Pacific/ Gulf of Alaska would support that.

After the cold winters of 09 and 10, temperatures were still record hot during the summer. It'll be interesting to see how things play out during the '14 summer... Maybe it'll actually rain this time in June like it's supposed to. Who knows?

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Belmer
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Re: February: Will The Active Pattern Continue?

Post by Belmer » Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:23 am

Crossing my fingers February is a good month for us folks in northern TX and in Oklahoma. We are bone dry. And with the ridge out west finally breaking away, early next week looks interesting.
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Re: February: Will The Active Pattern Continue?

Post by TxJohn » Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:29 am

Se TX? GFS has been showing a major snowstorm in most of Texas in the Feb 5-9 range....couple GFS runs have showed that as well as very chilly air and longer lasting.

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Re: February: Will The Active Pattern Continue?

Post by Belmer » Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:51 am

TxJohn wrote:Se TX? GFS has been showing a major snowstorm in most of Texas in the Feb 5-9 range....couple GFS runs have showed that as well as very chilly air and longer lasting.
Models I have looked at recently show NE TX, into OK and much of Arkansas under the gun more next week regarding winter weather than the south. Y'all have had y'all's fun! It's time for us to steal it back! Hahaha. I'm just ready for rain at this point honestly. I almost forgot what it looks like. OKC is closing out with .6 of precip for month of January.
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Re: February: Will The Active Pattern Continue?

Post by ticka1 » Tue Jan 28, 2014 5:14 am

models busted with jan 28th event - i have no faith in what they say going forward.

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Re: February: Will The Active Pattern Continue?

Post by cperk » Tue Jan 28, 2014 6:52 am

ticka1 wrote:models busted with jan 28th event - i have no faith in what they say going forward.

I understand your frustration but the models are not perfect the NWS offices are under a gun when it comes to severe weather events, they have to produce a forecast to warn the public days in advance I would hate to have their job.

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Re: February: Will The Active Pattern Continue?

Post by Belmer » Tue Jan 28, 2014 9:50 am

ticka1 wrote:models busted with jan 28th event - i have no faith in what they say going forward.

I wouldn't call this storm a "bust" by any means. It just didn't go the way we all thought it would pan out like it showed over the weekend.
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