January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[Paul Robison]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 280541
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.AVIATION...
FEW CHANGES MADE SINCE THE LAST UPDATE. STILL A FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST AS SFC TEMPS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE FOR
ACCUMULATIONS. SHOULD SEE A GOOD TEMP DROP WITH PRECIP THOUGH SO COULD
GO EITHER WAY. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014/
AVIATION...
UPDATED THE METRO TAFS BASED ON LATEST NAM12/GFS
MODEL DATA AND TRENDS. TRIED TO NARROW DOWN MENTION OF FREEZING
PRECIP THE BEST I COULD TO REFLECT BAND OF PRECIP MOST LIKELY
MAKING WHAT SHOULD BE FASTER PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH ON TUE BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE. WILL UPDATE THE OTHER TAFS WITHIN THE HOUR. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014/
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS MEXICO WILL
ULTIMATELY BE THE SPARK THAT INITIATES WHATEVER LIFT WILL GENERATE
TUESDAY PRECIPITATION. WHILE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TRACK THE
PROGRESSION...OR DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION...OF ENHANCED OMEGA/PVA
PRODUCED BY THESE WEAK WAVES THEY ARE NEVERTHELESS A MARKER TO
TRACK OR FOLLOW. TONIGHT`S UPDATES WERE TO TEMPS/POPS/WX THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE OF AN ADJUSTMENT. FOR POPS HAVE
BLENDED THE 00Z NAM AND THE 12Z WRF (ARW) OF SWATHING HIGH
CHANCE/LOW QPF UP NORTH DURING THE MORNING...TRANSITIONING THIS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES BEFORE DAWN...TURNING OVER TO A WINTER MIX OF EITHER
FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT SLEET ALONG AND NORTH THE HIGHWAY 105
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS PRECIP TYPE WILL SPREAD TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM MID- LATE AM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM BUT...JUST UPSTREAM... TEMPS/DEW
POINTS ARE BELOW FREEZING/SINGLE DIGITS. THIS LOWER LAYER DRY AIR
FILTERING IN MAY THWART PRE-DAWN PRECIPITATION. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SATURATION FROM PACIFIC MOISTURE HIGH ENOUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAYERS TOMORROW MORNING FOR ICE CRYSTALS/ SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS TO
PARTIALLY MELT WITHIN A WARMER 5-10K FT LAYER...THEN PARTIALLY RE-
FREEZE INTO SLEET IN THE LOWER 5K FT. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME WET WITH
EARLY DAY DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN...THEN FREEZE THROUGH THE
DAY. ICE FORMING ON ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACT FOR TRAVEL TOMORROW. ALL AND ALL...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD SIMILAR TO FRIDAY`S EVENT. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS NORTHERN SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
SLEET/ICE PROBLEM GOING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. 31


And Friday's event was nothing!

On the other hand:

Could our friends at NOAA be wishcasting?

[Andrew]

What it looks like so far. A little less moist in warm nose than originally thought

[Paul Robison]

What it looks like so far. A little less moist in warm nose than originally thought

Less moist means less ice, huh?

[srainhoutx]

Numerous freezing rain reports coming in from the Austin area. Ice accumulating on elevated surfaces. Some reports of ice starting to form at ground level.

[South_Texas_Storms]

Darn warm nose. Not liking my chances of snow up here anymore.

[TxJohn]

Forecast busted. City shutdown for nothing.....maybe Feb will be better but idk. Houston will never take these winte warnings seriously again. Goodnight folks....I was gonna stay up but nah.

[Paul Robison]

Forecast busted. City shutdown for nothing.....maybe Feb will be better but idk. Houston will never take these winte warnings seriously again. Goodnight folks....I was gonna stay up but nah.

U sure?

[mcheer23]

LOL at txjohn. If the safety of Houstonians is for nothing....lmao

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Forecast busted. City shutdown for nothing.....maybe Feb will be better but idk. Houston will never take these winte warnings seriously again. Goodnight folks....I was gonna stay up but nah.

Lol, were in the top of the 2nd bud.

[TXStormjg]

Forecast busted. City shutdown for nothing.....maybe Feb will be better but idk. Houston will never take these winte warnings seriously again. Goodnight folks....I was gonna stay up but nah.

Me thinks John was getting a bit sleepy! He was apparently wanting snow...oh well.

[Paul Robison]

Oboy! And I thought WE were going to have problems!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
931 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA. WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS ALREADY
IN PLACE... PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO FALL AS FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FROM ICING DUE TO FREEZING
RAIN AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES FALLING.

LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-281145-
/O.CON.KLIX.WS.W.0001.140128T1200Z-140129T1200Z/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-
ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-
LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...
LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...
BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE...
DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE...
PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...RESERVE...
THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...METAIRIE...
KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...VIOLET...
HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...GALLIANO...
CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...YSCLOSKEY...
AMITE...KENTWOOD...HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...CENTREVILLE...
WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...
PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...
BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...
ST. MARTIN
931 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO
6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL
LOCATIONS WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY NEARING ONE HALF INCH
SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND IN THE METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT LOUISIANA PARISHES. ELSEWHERE IN
THE WARNED AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS OF NEAR TO LESS THAN ONE INCH
ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY
HAZARDOUS BEGINNING BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH MID-
MORNING. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE
ABOVE FREEZING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME...HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH POWER LINES AND
TREE LIMBS BECOMING TOO HEAVY TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTEGRITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET... AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.


Hey, I'm not laughing at them. We've been there too, right?

[relic57]

Temp is starting to drop quickly here in Atascocita...46 and dew point of 16

[Paul Robison]

Temp is starting to drop quickly here in Atascocita...46 and dew point of 16

That's nothing compared to New Orleans. From NOLA.COM:

Louisiana utility giants Entergy and Cleco are preparing for a winter weather system that could bring snow, ice and freezing temperatures to much of their service territories on Tuesday morning (Jan. 28). Citing grim weather forecasts, both companies warned on Monday that accumulating ice could lead to broken trees and branches, which in turn could result in widespread power outages.

"Ice storms can present a difficult restoration because temperatures can fall during the night and refreeze melting ice," Cleco executive Anthony Bunting said in a news release.

Cleco warned that downed power lines can be energized and present safety hazards. The company also noted that the buildup of ice on highways and roads can lead to closures or difficulty accessing certain areas of the state.

"The impact of ice storms is very difficult to predict," Entergy spokesman Dennis Dawsey said in a news release. "Power outage restoration may extend into three to five days for some customers, depending on the severity of the damage."

Entergy advised customers who lose power during extreme cold to turn off their electric heating systems, lights and appliances. Once power is restored, Entergy officials advised turning the devices back on one at a time, and slowly, to avoid a power surge.

Entergy listed some tips for individuals in the path of a winter storm:

•Don't trim trees or remove debris on or near downed power lines. Only power company crews or their contractors should remove trees or limbs touching power lines.
•If you plan to use a generator for temporary power, get a licensed electrician and disconnect from the utility electric system before hooking up to your home main electric panel.
•Keep away from the areas where crews are working. There is always the danger of moving equipment and the possibility of construction materials or limbs or overhead wires falling to the ground.
•Do not run a generator in a confined space without adequate ventilation.


To report a live wire or dangling power lines, contact at Cleco at 1.800.622.6537, or Entergy at 1.800.968.8243.

For power outage information, visit Cleco and Entergy websites.

Grim would understating things!

[Paul]

a lot of weather stations in CLL reporting 32F-33F....line moves up just north of Madisonville at 32F....

Katy at 39F 24F dewpoint....slowly filtering in...

[Andrew]

CLL is 33ºF with very light rain. It won't be a complete bust there. 45 minutes ago.

Looking at temps, one can predict where precip has started, rather efficient wet bulbing happening..

Freezing rain already starting. Cars are freezing over especially. Back-building out west looks concerning

[wthrwave]

Sorry, I fell asleep. Very, very, very light precip @ about my 1:45 time. I could actually change my location within a few feet and feel the difference of no precip at tall for a good 5 seconds ... that's how light it was ! Temp. at my house has been holding and waffling .. ( lets talk! ). Love this forum and its pro mets (WOW). Can't wait to see what happens in the morn.

[Andrew]

The models just did an absolutely HORRIBLE job at predicting moisture coverage. Way more moisture than predicted and farther north (yet again). Should transition south as we go throughout the night into tomorrow. Sitting pretty at 31 right now up here in KCLL and RH has increased a good 25-30%

[basketballrox]

I live in San Marcos which is just south of Austin. It seems to me that stuff is building like crazy to my west. Any chance of decent accumulations in my neck of the woods?

[Andrew]

I live in San Marcos which is just south of Austin. It seems to me that stuff is building like crazy to my west. Any chance of decent accumulations in my neck of the woods?

Already hearing reports of some accumulation around those parts.

[vci_guy2003]

Biggest bust in Houston weather history