January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[Kingwood31]

Wonder why it's taking HGX so long for whatever there going to issue..I'd hate to be them

You should never overlook the most obvious signs in life sometimes. Like it was posted before, take a step outside and look up when doing a forecast. In this case, it does seem to be taking a long time to issue a warning. That is likely do to the complexity of the forecast. However, other offices haven't done much either. We just now saw MSY issue a Winter Storm Warning for their area. I suspect LCH and HGX will follow suit when their AFD's are issued.

Wasn't trying to be a a**..sorry

[TexasMetBlake]

Wonder why it's taking HGX so long for whatever there going to issue..I'd hate to be them

You should never overlook the most obvious signs in life sometimes. Like it was posted before, take a step outside and look up when doing a forecast. In this case, it does seem to be taking a long time to issue a warning. That is likely do to the complexity of the forecast. However, other offices haven't done much either. We just now saw MSY issue a Winter Storm Warning for their area. I suspect LCH and HGX will follow suit when their AFD's are issued.

Wasn't trying to be a a**..sorry

And I wasn't trying to correct you I'm just saying it is helpful sometimes to look at the obvious and in this case you made a great observation.

[TexasMetBlake]

So so far we've had the following offices transition to a Winter Storm Warning this afternoon:

Jacksonville, FL: turned few counties in their northern CWA to a warning
Macon, GA: watch to warning (entire CWA)
Columbia, SC: watch to warning (entire CWA)
Raleigh, NC: watch to a warning (most of CWA)
New Orleans, LA: watch to warning (entire CWA)

Which will be the next to fall?

I suspect it'll be the Mobile office followed by Houston then Lake Charles. Anybody?

[srainhoutx]

Updated surface analysis charts have been issued by the WPC. Notice the area along the pink line suggests light snow.

[vci_guy2003]

Upgraded: Winter Storm Warning for portions of SE Texas

[PaulEInHouston]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
230 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTHWEST AREAS...

.AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT
DRIVING TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW FREEZING BY 4 AM ACROSS ALL OF
THE INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHERN MEXICO TO HELP DEVELOP PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN BEGINNING AROUND COLLEGE STATION AND EXPANDING EAST
THEN SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. BRIDGES SHOULD ICE UP WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.10 INCHES. LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF ICING LESS
THAN 0.05 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADVISORY AREAS.
THIS WINTER PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH
WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON LINE. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET...SOME SNOW FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING.

TXZ177>179-195>200-212>214-227-237-238-280430-
/O.UPG.KHGX.WS.A.0002.140128T0900Z-140129T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KHGX.WS.W.0002.140128T0900Z-140129T0000Z/
WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-WALLER-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-FORT BEND-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...
LIVINGSTON...CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...SUGAR LAND...
MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...
ALVIN...ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON
230 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SLEET MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW
WILL DEVELOP AROUND COLLEGE STATION EARLY TUESDAY AROUND 5 AM
THEN EXPAND EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE HUNTSVILLE AND
CONROE AREAS TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND SNOW THROUGH THE WARNING
AREA. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AN INCH OR
LESS FOR THE CORRIDOR FROM NORTH FROM CALDWELL TO GROVETON.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL SEE MORE SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN AND LESS SNOW IF ANY SNOW. ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES WITH THIS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 6 AM AND
NOON AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE FREEZING
MARK THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN FALL TOWARD THE 30 DEGREE
MAR. AREAS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE THE LATEST TO RECIEVE
PRECIPITATION. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVER BY 6 PM.

* IMPACTS...VERY COLD ROAD SURFACES WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SOME SURFACE ROADS MAY BE IMPACTED
IN AREAS NORTH OF COLLEGE STATION TO LAKE LIVINGSTON AREA. ELEVATED
ROADWAYS MAY BE ENTIRELY IMPASSABLE. TRAVEL MAY BE SEVERELY
LIMITED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SLEET MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM SYSTEM
IS IMPACTING THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. TRAVEL IS LIKELY TO BE SEVERELY IMPACTED.

&&

$$

[TXStormjg]

I knew it was coming. Someone knows more than other!!

[srainhoutx]

NWS Lake Charles to issue Winter Storm Warning shortly.

[Texaspirate11]

Our HGX NWS does a yeoman's job.

[TexasMetBlake]

Via TWC twitter: The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 1m
NEW: Winter weather advisory begins at midnight for Austin, San Antonio. Icy bridges/overpasses main problem: http://wxch.nl/1hFGvnS #Leon

[srainhoutx]

NWS San Antonio/Austin issues Winter Weather Advisory.

[TexasMetBlake]

Tallahassee, FLORIDA: Winter Storm Warning now.

TWC Twitter: How's this for coincidence: Leon County, FL (Tallahassee) will be under a winter storm WARNING starting 1pm Tue for Winter Storm #Leon.

[Texaspirate11]

TWC- PFFT.

[sau27]

I think we should try to keep in mind that these winter weather events in our area usually produce a surprise or two. As has been said on this forum many times in the past EVERYTHING has to come together just right for wintry precipitation to pan out down here and even the smallest variations in the conditions, especially in the upper levels, can cause big differences. Lets not forget that just 3 days ago unexpected snow banding set up north of the metro area and some woke up to a surprise of multiple inches of snow. Now I am by no means saying that will happen tomorrow but it should illustrate the fact that with these events we can forecast in a general sense but we wont truly know until precipitation starts falling.

[redneckweather]

And there ya have it. SNOW will be confined to counties in the extreme northern viewing areas and what not. This looks to mirror what we saw last week. I'm sure it will snow 10 miles to my north (accumulated) like last time. While driving out that way Saturday, I started running into accumulating snow about 4 miles before I got to the Sam Houston Statue on I-45 driving North.

[Portastorm]

NWS San Antonio/Austin issues Winter Weather Advisory.

Yessir ... here it is:


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
253 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
NOON TUESDAY...

.VERY COLD AIR CONTINUED TO BLAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY
THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
BRING LOW CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. LIGHT RAIN
AND SLEET WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON ELEVATED
OBJECTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TRACE...WITH SPOTTY AMOUNTS BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF LULING TO
AUSTIN AND JARRELL LINE. THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND END ALL AREAS BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TXZ171>173-184>194-203>209-219>225-280400-
/O.CON.KEWX.WW.Y.0002.140128T0600Z-140128T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-
KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-
GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-
DE WITT-LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...
LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...
KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE
253 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY...

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT TO NOON TUESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW
MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...MAKING THEM ICY AND
DANGEROUS FOR TRAVEL.

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

[srainhoutx]

I think we should try to keep in mind that these winter weather events in our area usually produce a surprise or two. As has been said on this forum many times in the past EVERYTHING has to come together just right for wintry precipitation to pan out down here and even the smallest variations in the conditions, especially in the upper levels, can cause big differences. Lets not forget that just 3 days ago unexpected snow banding set up north of the metro area and some woke up to a surprise of multiple inches of snow. Now I am by no means saying that will happen tomorrow but it should illustrate the fact that with these events we can forecast in a general sense but we wont truly know until precipitation starts falling.

And this exactly why HGX issued the Warning/Advisory. Also past experience tells us that in SE Texas and with upper air disturbances/short waves crossing SW Mexico the models have a tendency to preform less effectively, so don't be surprised if further adjustments are needed over the next 12-24 hours.

[hlewis]

I want to hear more from wxman and srain on the current situation. also, how does this compare to the snow of 2004?

[wxman57]

My initial observations looking out across TX and OK today are that the airmass is not as cold as the models had been predicting a few days ago. This is why the models have trended a little warmer with temps in the past few runs. I'm not too hopeful of seeing any snow in central Houston tomorrow. Can't rule it out, but I'm expecting mostly freezing rain and sleet to ice up bridges/overpasses during the afternoon. Surface roads will probably remain ice-free. Similar to last Friday.

[TexasMetBlake]

Lake Charles issues Winter Storm Warning for 2-3 inches of snow.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
305 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER WEATHER TO BECOME WIDESPREAD STARTING EARLY TUESDAY...

.THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA EARLIER TODAY IS BEING
FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LAYER OF COLD ARCTIC AIR...MOST NOTICEABLE
AS FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH COLDER LOWS
BEGINNING TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OLD MEXICO BEGINNING TONIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH
GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR. THIS OVERRUNNING PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FUNNELS OVERHEAD WHILE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL FURTHER OVERNIGHT...A MIXTURE OF WINTER
WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA ON THE
HEELS OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...AND THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
280500-
/O.UPG.KLCH.WS.A.0001.140128T1200Z-140129T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLCH.WS.W.0003.140128T1200Z-140129T1200Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...
MANSURA...DE RIDDER...OAKDALE...KINDER...VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...
OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...WELSH...
LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...
BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...KAPLAN...
NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...BERWICK...
BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...HOLLY BEACH...CAMERON...
GRAND CHENIER...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...
BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...JASPER...
KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
305 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FORECAST ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A QUARTER-
INCH ARE FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. NORTH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...LESSER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.