January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[HouTXmetro]

HOW did we go from Low 30's to 40 in one day of model runs a day before event?... I AM PUZZLED

[srainhoutx]

12z GFS has lower pops than the 00z along with warmer temps. The model shows a high of 40. The 12z NAM is the most robust with pops (67%) with a high of 37.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KIAH

I'm kinda puzzled as to why there is no updates to the watches---not just for Houston but Louisiana too.

Those details are being worked out at this hour. You can see from a logistical point that School Districts are already taking actions. I suspect around 3-4 PM Warnings for SE Texas and on E into Louisiana as well as Advisories for the Austin/San Antonio area will be issued.

[ticka1]

HOW did we go from Low 30's to 40 in one day of model runs a day before event?... I AM PUZZLED

Everyone wear your flip flops, hawaiian shirts and shorts and the temps will keep raising

[mcheer23]

12z GFS has lower pops than the 00z along with warmer temps. The model shows a high of 40. The 12z NAM is the most robust with pops (67%) with a high of 37.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KIAH

I'm kinda puzzled as to why there is no updates to the watches---not just for Houston but Louisiana too.

Those details are being worked out at this hour. You can see from a logistical point that School Districts are already taking actions. I suspect around 3-4 PM Warnings for SE Texas and on E into Louisiana as well as Advisories for the Austin/San Antonio area will be issued.

Agree 100 percent.

[TxJohn]

This may be a bust....this event seems suspect. I'll hold my hope out for the next one in February

[redneckweather]

I'm gonna have to agree with the warmer look of the GFS. When I woke up this morning it was 50 degrees with the front just beginning to roll in. We have had gusty north winds for a couple hours up here now in Central Montgomery County and the temp has been holding at 55 degrees.

[Kingwood31]

I think everyone should step away from the board go have lunch and wait till the event starts before u call it a bust

[TxJohn]

I'm gonna have to agree with the warmer look of the GFS. When I woke up this morning it was 50 degrees with the front just beginning to roll in. We have had gusty north winds for a couple hours up here now in Central Montgomery County and the temp has been holding at 55 degrees.

I noticed this as well....the temp drop isn't as big as forecasted.

This whole thing is slowly falling to pieces. If anything it'll be a repeat of last Friday. Snow north of any precip falls. And a glaze of ice in Houston. A bit of sleet but not too much.

[jabcwb2]

Any chance everyone will add to their profile the area of town you live in? I'm just a lurker....it helps to understand what's happening a whole lot better!
THANKS!

[srainhoutx]

I'm gonna have to agree with the warmer look of the GFS. When I woke up this morning it was 50 degrees with the front just beginning to roll in. We have had gusty north winds for a couple hours up here now in Central Montgomery County and the temp has been holding at 55 degrees.

The 850mb Arctic front is lagging a couple of hours behind the pre frontal trough. The actual 850mb front is arriving across the Hill Country at this hour. Temps in the Central Plains are in the single digits.

[mcheer23]

I'm gonna have to agree with the warmer look of the GFS. When I woke up this morning it was 50 degrees with the front just beginning to roll in. We have had gusty north winds for a couple hours up here now in Central Montgomery County and the temp has been holding at 55 degrees.

I noticed this as well....the temp drop isn't as big as forecasted.

This whole thing is slowly falling to pieces. If anything it'll be a repeat of last Friday. Snow north of any precip falls. And a glaze of ice in Houston. A bit of sleet but not too much.

The temp isn't supposed to start dropping for a few more hours...NWS has my area at 51 at 3pm

[Andrew]

A warning to everyone, provide actual information with facts to support your information. Do not just post this is going to be a bust or this isn't going to be a bust. That provides no support to the board. Further posts like this will be deleted.

[TxJohn]

The trends today have been warmer and drier...and we're so close to the event. I don't see why we should go back to older model runs. There seems to be a trend now...

[jgreak]

Latest closings
Cleveland ISD: Closed Tuesday and Wednesday. Classes to resume Thursday.
Tarkington ISD: Closed Tuesday and Wednesday.
Texas City ISD: Closed Tuesday. All extracurricular activities and athletic events set for Tuesday will be rescheduled.
Liberty ISD: Closed Tuesday and Wednesday.
Hitchcock ISD: Closed Tuesday.
Crosby ISD: Closed Tuesday.
Wharton County Junior College: Closed Tuesday.
Devers ISD: Closed Tuesday and Wednesday.
Hull-Daisetta ISD: Closed Tuesday and Wednesday.
Dayton ISD: Closed Tuesday and Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

Texas State EOC is activating this afternoon with "readiness level" being increased for S Central and SE Texas.

[nuby3]

I'm sticking to my guns and going with the original CMC. I think the models can not be trusted. especially with a storm coming from where it is. I think it's gonna snow like crazy along and north of harris/Montgomery border tomorrow afternoon on top of a glaze of ice and a bit of sleet. but I'm just guessing like everyone else and I have nothing to back it up.

[mcheer23]

Can someone fill in on how the 12Z Euro was?

[TexasMetBlake]

Winter Storm Warnings are starting to be hoisted now: FINALLY. First one was just issued for southeast Georgia near Jacksonville. Not often you see that. As the AFD's are issued, I suspect we'll finally see the southern US light up with pink.

[jabcwb2]

Clear Creek ISD CLOSED tomorrow

[Paul]

something that might lead credence to the CMC last run is that ULL digging into BAJA is really slinging plenty of moisture up into STX moving across the state.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

finally on the winter warnings....its pretty much a done deal so why the wait...geezz...