January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[ticka1]

wundermap link

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... =10&wxsn=1

[relic57]

49 dewpoint of 24 here in Atascocita

[weatherguy425]

I know everyone is focused on the potential event that is at our doorstep, but we are near the end of January and a new month is just ahead. The teleconnection indices as well as the various Global operational and ensemble guidance is suggesting a very active early February with additional wintry potential. Perhaps someone would like to start a February Topic as we look ahead to a new month...

Done!

[srainhoutx]

Andrew is preparing for the launch @ A & M. It will be interesting to see the data from that special sounding and just what the atmosphere is doing in 'real time'.

[South_Texas_Storms]

Andrew is preparing for the launch @ A & M. It will be interesting to see the data from that special sounding and just what the atmosphere is doing in 'real time'.

Any idea when we will be able to see that data srain?

[don]

Canadian looks in line with the NAM, it just has the precip bullseye further south along the coast, instead of the 59/I-10 corridors.

[Andrew]

One heck of a warm nose, but upper levels look pretty saturated.

[TexasMetBlake]

One heck of a warm nose, but upper levels look pretty saturated.

Is that Skew-T data available on the TAMU website?

[JamieP]

One heck of a warm nose, but upper levels look pretty saturated.

Andrew, what does that mean? Is this the data from the balloon just released? Are trends setting up further south (in my neck of the woods) as someone suggested a few pages back?

[Andrew]

This is real time data right now. Still haven't even plotted it on the proper skew t. I'll post it when I get a picture

[Paul Robison]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 280541
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.AVIATION...
FEW CHANGES MADE SINCE THE LAST UPDATE. STILL A FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST AS SFC TEMPS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE FOR
ACCUMULATIONS. SHOULD SEE A GOOD TEMP DROP WITH PRECIP THOUGH SO COULD
GO EITHER WAY. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014/
AVIATION...
UPDATED THE METRO TAFS BASED ON LATEST NAM12/GFS
MODEL DATA AND TRENDS. TRIED TO NARROW DOWN MENTION OF FREEZING
PRECIP THE BEST I COULD TO REFLECT BAND OF PRECIP MOST LIKELY
MAKING WHAT SHOULD BE FASTER PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH ON TUE BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE. WILL UPDATE THE OTHER TAFS WITHIN THE HOUR. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014/
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS MEXICO WILL
ULTIMATELY BE THE SPARK THAT INITIATES WHATEVER LIFT WILL GENERATE
TUESDAY PRECIPITATION. WHILE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TRACK THE
PROGRESSION...OR DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION...OF ENHANCED OMEGA/PVA
PRODUCED BY THESE WEAK WAVES THEY ARE NEVERTHELESS A MARKER TO
TRACK OR FOLLOW. TONIGHT`S UPDATES WERE TO TEMPS/POPS/WX THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE OF AN ADJUSTMENT. FOR POPS HAVE
BLENDED THE 00Z NAM AND THE 12Z WRF (ARW) OF SWATHING HIGH
CHANCE/LOW QPF UP NORTH DURING THE MORNING...TRANSITIONING THIS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES BEFORE DAWN...TURNING OVER TO A WINTER MIX OF EITHER
FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT SLEET ALONG AND NORTH THE HIGHWAY 105
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS PRECIP TYPE WILL SPREAD TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM MID- LATE AM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM BUT...JUST UPSTREAM... TEMPS/DEW
POINTS ARE BELOW FREEZING/SINGLE DIGITS. THIS LOWER LAYER DRY AIR
FILTERING IN MAY THWART PRE-DAWN PRECIPITATION. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SATURATION FROM PACIFIC MOISTURE HIGH ENOUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAYERS TOMORROW MORNING FOR ICE CRYSTALS/ SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS TO
PARTIALLY MELT WITHIN A WARMER 5-10K FT LAYER...THEN PARTIALLY RE-
FREEZE INTO SLEET IN THE LOWER 5K FT. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME WET WITH
EARLY DAY DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN...THEN FREEZE THROUGH THE
DAY. ICE FORMING ON ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACT FOR TRAVEL TOMORROW. ALL AND ALL...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD SIMILAR TO FRIDAY`S EVENT. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS NORTHERN SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
SLEET/ICE PROBLEM GOING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. 31


And Friday's event was nothing!

On the other hand:

Could our friends at NOAA be wishcasting?

[Andrew]

What it looks like so far. A little less moist in warm nose than originally thought

[Paul Robison]

What it looks like so far. A little less moist in warm nose than originally thought

Less moist means less ice, huh?

[srainhoutx]

Numerous freezing rain reports coming in from the Austin area. Ice accumulating on elevated surfaces. Some reports of ice starting to form at ground level.

[South_Texas_Storms]

Darn warm nose. Not liking my chances of snow up here anymore.

[TxJohn]

Forecast busted. City shutdown for nothing.....maybe Feb will be better but idk. Houston will never take these winte warnings seriously again. Goodnight folks....I was gonna stay up but nah.

[Paul Robison]

Forecast busted. City shutdown for nothing.....maybe Feb will be better but idk. Houston will never take these winte warnings seriously again. Goodnight folks....I was gonna stay up but nah.

U sure?

[mcheer23]

LOL at txjohn. If the safety of Houstonians is for nothing....lmao

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Forecast busted. City shutdown for nothing.....maybe Feb will be better but idk. Houston will never take these winte warnings seriously again. Goodnight folks....I was gonna stay up but nah.

Lol, were in the top of the 2nd bud.

[TXStormjg]

Forecast busted. City shutdown for nothing.....maybe Feb will be better but idk. Houston will never take these winte warnings seriously again. Goodnight folks....I was gonna stay up but nah.

Me thinks John was getting a bit sleepy! He was apparently wanting snow...oh well.