January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Paul Robison

Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Warning/Adviso

Post by Paul Robison » Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:01 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 280541
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.AVIATION...
FEW CHANGES MADE SINCE THE LAST UPDATE. STILL A FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST AS SFC TEMPS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE FOR
ACCUMULATIONS. SHOULD SEE A GOOD TEMP DROP WITH PRECIP THOUGH SO COULD
GO EITHER WAY. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014/
AVIATION...
UPDATED THE METRO TAFS BASED ON LATEST NAM12/GFS
MODEL DATA AND TRENDS. TRIED TO NARROW DOWN MENTION OF FREEZING
PRECIP THE BEST I COULD TO REFLECT BAND OF PRECIP MOST LIKELY
MAKING WHAT SHOULD BE FASTER PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH ON TUE BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE. WILL UPDATE THE OTHER TAFS WITHIN THE HOUR. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014/
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS MEXICO WILL
ULTIMATELY BE THE SPARK THAT INITIATES WHATEVER LIFT WILL GENERATE
TUESDAY PRECIPITATION. WHILE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TRACK THE
PROGRESSION...OR DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION...OF ENHANCED OMEGA/PVA
PRODUCED BY THESE WEAK WAVES THEY ARE NEVERTHELESS A MARKER TO
TRACK OR FOLLOW. TONIGHT`S UPDATES WERE TO TEMPS/POPS/WX THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE OF AN ADJUSTMENT. FOR POPS HAVE
BLENDED THE 00Z NAM AND THE 12Z WRF (ARW) OF SWATHING HIGH
CHANCE/LOW QPF UP NORTH DURING THE MORNING...TRANSITIONING THIS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES BEFORE DAWN...TURNING OVER TO A WINTER MIX OF EITHER
FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT SLEET ALONG AND NORTH THE HIGHWAY 105
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS PRECIP TYPE WILL SPREAD TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM MID- LATE AM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM BUT...JUST UPSTREAM... TEMPS/DEW
POINTS ARE BELOW FREEZING/SINGLE DIGITS. THIS LOWER LAYER DRY AIR
FILTERING IN MAY THWART PRE-DAWN PRECIPITATION. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SATURATION FROM PACIFIC MOISTURE HIGH ENOUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAYERS TOMORROW MORNING FOR ICE CRYSTALS/ SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS TO
PARTIALLY MELT WITHIN A WARMER 5-10K FT LAYER...THEN PARTIALLY RE-
FREEZE INTO SLEET IN THE LOWER 5K FT. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME WET WITH
EARLY DAY DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN...THEN FREEZE THROUGH THE
DAY. ICE FORMING ON ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACT FOR TRAVEL TOMORROW. ALL AND ALL...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD SIMILAR TO FRIDAY`S EVENT. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS NORTHERN SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
SLEET/ICE PROBLEM GOING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. 31



And Friday's event was nothing!

On the other hand:

Could our friends at NOAA be wishcasting?

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Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Warning/Adviso

Post by Andrew » Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:02 am

What it looks like so far. A little less moist in warm nose than originally thought
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Paul Robison

Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Warning/Adviso

Post by Paul Robison » Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:03 am

Andrew wrote:What it looks like so far. A little less moist in warm nose than originally thought

Less moist means less ice, huh?

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Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Warning/Adviso

Post by srainhoutx » Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:19 am

Numerous freezing rain reports coming in from the Austin area. Ice accumulating on elevated surfaces. Some reports of ice starting to form at ground level.
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Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Warning/Adviso

Post by South_Texas_Storms » Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:21 am

Darn warm nose. Not liking my chances of snow up here anymore.

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Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Warning/Adviso

Post by TxJohn » Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:24 am

Forecast busted. City shutdown for nothing.....maybe Feb will be better but idk. Houston will never take these winte warnings seriously again. Goodnight folks....I was gonna stay up but nah.

Paul Robison

Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Warning/Adviso

Post by Paul Robison » Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:27 am

TxJohn wrote:Forecast busted. City shutdown for nothing.....maybe Feb will be better but idk. Houston will never take these winte warnings seriously again. Goodnight folks....I was gonna stay up but nah.

U sure?

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Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Warning/Adviso

Post by mcheer23 » Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:30 am

LOL at txjohn. If the safety of Houstonians is for nothing....lmao

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Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Warning/Adviso

Post by TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:41 am

TxJohn wrote:Forecast busted. City shutdown for nothing.....maybe Feb will be better but idk. Houston will never take these winte warnings seriously again. Goodnight folks....I was gonna stay up but nah.
Lol, were in the top of the 2nd bud.

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Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Warning/Adviso

Post by TXStormjg » Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:58 am

TxJohn wrote:Forecast busted. City shutdown for nothing.....maybe Feb will be better but idk. Houston will never take these winte warnings seriously again. Goodnight folks....I was gonna stay up but nah.
Me thinks John was getting a bit sleepy! He was apparently wanting snow...oh well. :D
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