January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[Kingwood31]

Here's to another round! Hopefully we can get a little more this time (northern burbs of hou)

[Heat Miser]

Here's to another round?
Granted, I enjoyed having the day off via the hazardous travel conditions, but many folks HAVE to travel on those treacherous roads.
Snow, love it. Freezing rain, no good.

[Kingwood31]

So I have a question. Do the on air mets make their own forecast or do the take them from the national weather service? Reason I ask is if they do make their own forecast why can't on air mets issue warnings like we saw last night,if on air mets have to listen to the nws then what's the point of having on air mets?

[TexasBreeze]

It would be extremely confusing to have each met issue their own statements. How do you set criteria? Separate forecasts are fine. They use the NWS as a guideline.

OT: 1016 posts for this thread is amazing! Popular and great forum!

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z GFS and shorter range meso guidance are a bit bullish on a rather interesting pattern early next week. Cold air at the surface looks to arrive prior to the storminess dropping S from Western Canada as well as a noisy Eastern Pacific with a sub tropical connection. We will see.

The attachment 01252014 00Z NAM WRF f84.gif is no longer available

[MontgomeryCoWx]

NAM goes HAM on a full fledged Texas Winter Storm for Tuesday, including Houston.

Phasing, colder air and a neg tilt eruption that would leave 2014 as one of the "remember that time..." stories

[Kludge]

We've all endured enough hot and dry to last most humans a lifetime.

Noting that we've just had a bit of a taste of cold and wet, and it was a little uncomfortable in places... I still say:

Bring it.

[ticka1]

We've all endured enough hot and dry to last most humans a lifetime.

Noting that we've just had a bit of a taste of cold and wet, and it was a little uncomfortable in places... I still say:

Bring it.

like this

[Andrew]

So I have a question. Do the on air mets make their own forecast or do the take them from the national weather service? Reason I ask is if they do make their own forecast why can't on air mets issue warnings like we saw last night,if on air mets have to listen to the nws then what's the point of having on air mets?

It really depends on the forecaster, channel, and time. A lot of on air mets will look at the data, look at the NWS, and the models and then make their own prediction on what they think will happen. The NWS has always been the one to issue warnings but a lot of time the on air mets are the ones who really get that information out to the public. I have seen an on air met actually create his own Tornado Warning before the NWS did though. That was a pretty interesting event. So on air mets do in a lot of cases create their own forecast and are usually pretty crucial in distributing important warnings.

[Andrew]

Cmc goes bonkers with temps and precip. Would be the storm of the year for sure

[TxJohn]

It's starting!!

David Paul tweets: "@DavidPaulKHOU: #Extended #Forecast: 80% chance it WON'T happen, but there is a 20% chance for snow Tuesday morning. Happy weekend! http://t.co/24bSnDMHgk"

[mcheer23]

Andrew what's the link for the CMC

[weatherguy425]

So I have a question. Do the on air mets make their own forecast or do the take them from the national weather service? Reason I ask is if they do make their own forecast why can't on air mets issue warnings like we saw last night,if on air mets have to listen to the nws then what's the point of having on air mets?

It really depends on the forecaster, channel, and time. A lot of on air mets will look at the data, look at the NWS, and the models and then make their own prediction on what they think will happen. The NWS has always been the one to issue warnings but a lot of time the on air mets are the ones who really get that information out to the public. I have seen an on air met actually create his own Tornado Warning before the NWS did though. That was a pretty interesting event. So on air mets do in a lot of cases create their own forecast and are usually pretty crucial in distributing important warnings.

I do weekends fora small NBC affiliate in Lubbock. Most forecasters, even in smaller markets, do use their own meteorological experience when making forecasts. Obviously, it varies between Mets. But, for the most part, model guidance, pattern recognition, and radar analysis are all vital to an on-air mets daily rituals. The big difference, often times, between the NWS forecasts and the forecast presented by local media will be in the extended range; 3-Day, 5-Day, 7-Day, etc.

[cperk]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 251104
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
504 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR DAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH THE WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING VFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE ARE ALREADY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A SW WIND TODAY AND CONSIDERABLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD APPROACH 60 BY THE END OF THE DAY.
SUNDAY WILL TREND EVEN WARM AS ONSHORE WINDS PREVAIL.

CONDS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT CROSSES SE TX. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR PEAK IN
THE MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THINGS GET INTERESTING FOR TUES/WED. STILL NOT
CONFIDENT IN TIMING...BUT ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN/FRZ RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE ON TUESDAY AFTN INTO
TUES NIGHT. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS BEEN BULLISH WITH RAIN CHANCE
FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS NOW SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND
NOGAPS. THE GFS REMAINS THE DRY OUTLIER WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF BUT EVEN THE ECMWF IS TRENDING WETTER. ONCE AGAIN...THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT SOME KIND OF WINTER MIX AND AT THIS TIME...FEEL
THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SLEET. THIS EVENT IS SEVERAL DAYS
AWAY SO WILL KEEP THINGS ALL LIQUID FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR A BETTER
CONSENSUS. A VERY COLD MORNING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
STRONG WARM UP TO END THE WORK WEEK. A S/WV WILL CROSS SE TX ON
FRI AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. 43

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY AND EXPECT THE CAUTION
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TO DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AT THE LATEST. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY. STRONG OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY. IF THIS
SETUP OCCURS...ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
LAST INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY DRIVE
UP THE TIDES IN THE BAYS. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 59 40 66 45 54 / 0 0 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 42 67 52 60 / 0 0 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 56 50 63 55 60 / 0 0 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40

[cperk]

Cmc goes bonkers with temps and precip. Would be the storm of the year for sure

Sub freezing temperatures for southeast Texas and precip WOW.

[nuby3]

am seeing the CMC loop correctly? is there more chance for frozen precif thur-fri? of the nocturnal variety?

[cperk]

am seeing the CMC loop correctly? is there more chance for frozen precif thur-fri? of the nocturnal variety?

Possibly.

[wxman57]

Am I seeing the CMC loop correctly? is there more chance for frozen precif thur-fri? of the nocturnal variety?

I don't see anything Thu/Fri on the Canadian. I do see it forecasting 3-6" of snow for Houston on Tuesday, though. Models are quite split from a chance of a trace of sleet to 6" snow. For now, I'd lean toward the former.

[srainhoutx]

The WPC using a blend of the multi model consensus suggests the Day 4-5 range has light precip along Coastal Texas into Louisiana. The WPC Winter Weather Desk Outlook also suggest some chance of freezing rain/sleet mainly along and S of the I-10 Corridor Tuesday night into early Wednesday. We need to give the guidance another day or two before buying in on any one solution. That said the Arctic front arriving Monday and the a strong upper air disturbance riding E from the Baja Region across Mexico does raise an eyebrow and will be worth monitoring the next 24 to 48 hours. We will see.

[Portastorm]

I'll trust reliable modelling, and not get very hyped at this point, even if Lucy didn't pull the football on yesterday's system for the first time since 2009, and I include FUNderstorms in that.

I'm curious what you consider "reliable modelling" at this point?

Seems to me that the GFS did best in this last "event" while the NAM and Euro didn't perform as well. Not sure about the Crazy Uncle CMC but that one's always good for entertainment value.