January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:33 pm

Lite rain falling here In Richmond.

Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:41 pm

39 degrees in kingwood,little mist

Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:41 pm

How are the current temperatures upstream compared to what was forecast for this time of day? Are they trending colder or warmer compared to what was forecast? Do we still anticipate freezing temperatures to arrive around midnight for the northwest Harris County area?

Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:44 pm

poobear55 wrote:How are the current temperatures upstream compared to what was forecast for this time of day? Are they trending colder or warmer compared to what was forecast? Do we still anticipate freezing temperatures to arrive around midnight for the northwest Harris County area?

I would think about 10:00 we would start to see the freeze line come down to tomball,spring,humble,kingwood area(the northern edge of Harris county)

Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:50 pm

Just wanted to tell everything THANK YOU...You guys have been really great in keeping us informed...

Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:54 pm

It's windy and chilly here in NW Harris County. Temp around 43 degrees....it's been drizzling/light rain since about 12pm.

There seems to be a lot of moisture across TX....will there still be enough moisture left when temps reach freezing in Houston?

And since it has been drizzling and light rain for about 3 hours now...wouldn't that help cool the atmosphere more...and diminish that dry layer thus instead of freezing rain...more a snow/sleet situation? Just wondering....

Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:04 pm

Update from Jeff:

Arctic boundary plowing across SE TX.

Temperatures are falling very quickly into the 30’s behind the boundary (36 at Huntsville and 39 at Conroe) versus 57 in Pearland and 66 in Bay City. Freezing line extends from near Kerrville to Hillsboro (near Waco) and is progressing southward under strong cold air advection and should be very near a College Station to Huntsville line by sunset. Onset of freezing rain continues to look likely within a few hours of sunset north of a line from Brenham to Conroe to Lake Livingston, then to the US 59 corridor between midnight and 300am, and to the coast by 400-600am.

Precipitation thus far appears anchored in a WNW to ESE band from Colorado County to Wharton and Fort Bend Counties with more scattered activity northward.

Note: Airport METAR obs will be at times misleading on P-type with this event and I would not trust the observations much.

Note: Both UH and A&M will be launching upper air soundings this evening to help determine the precise temperature profile above the surface over the area.

Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:10 pm

TxJohn wrote:It's windy and chilly here in NW Harris County. Temp around 43 degrees....it's been drizzling/light rain since about 12pm.

There seems to be a lot of moisture across TX....will there still be enough moisture left when temps reach freezing in Houston?

And since it has been drizzling and light rain for about 3 hours now...wouldn't that help cool the atmosphere more...and diminish that dry layer thus instead of freezing rain...more a snow/sleet situation? Just wondering....

Rain is helping keep the low level and mid level of the atmosphere fairly saturated per 18Z UH sounding which shows good saturation up to about 700mb. Dry air filtering in from the N if pushing dewpoints down, but precip is pushing temp down with them so not seeing much spread at all. UTS now down to 35 so the evaporative processes are at work.

HRRR soundings are keeping it saturated through 600mb all night. IAH is getting very close to completely frozen by 10Z tomorrow. CLL is all frozen by 04Z. Could be looking at more snow over NW/N counties.

Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:14 pm

Any snow in Sugar Land?

Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:17 pm

jeff wrote:
TxJohn wrote:It's windy and chilly here in NW Harris County. Temp around 43 degrees....it's been drizzling/light rain since about 12pm.

There seems to be a lot of moisture across TX....will there still be enough moisture left when temps reach freezing in Houston?

And since it has been drizzling and light rain for about 3 hours now...wouldn't that help cool the atmosphere more...and diminish that dry layer thus instead of freezing rain...more a snow/sleet situation? Just wondering....
Rain is helping keep the low level and mid level of the atmosphere fairly saturated per 18Z UH sounding which shows good saturation up to about 700mb. Dry air filtering in from the N if pushing dewpoints down, but precip is pushing temp down with them so not seeing much spread at all. UTS now down to 35 so the evaporative processes are at work.

HRRR soundings are keeping it saturated through 600mb all night. IAH is getting very close to completely frozen by 10Z tomorrow. CLL is all frozen by 04Z. Could be looking at more snow over NW/N counties.

Jeff, does that mean IAH will be frozen by 10 pm tonight or tomorrow morning at 10 am?

Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:18 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:UH has a met program?

That's what I'm saying.. I go there... never heard of it.
Saw some videos of balloon launches though.

Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:21 pm

Looking at radar trends, models look like they have underestimated dry air filtering south and as a result precip is a lot more widespread across the area. Interesting to note places close to DFW are even getting involved. No model really picked up on this. With this said I do think locations farther east may be the eventual winner on frozen precip. North and East of Houston may get the most when all things are said and done tomorrow.

Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:27 pm

Baseballdude2915 wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:UH has a met program?
That's what I'm saying.. I go there... never heard of it.
Saw some videos of balloon launches though.

It's new. I think they launched a couple years ago.

Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:37 pm

Are we still expecting a coastal low to develop tonight?

Thu Jan 23, 2014 4:04 pm

Boy it got dead quick lol

Thu Jan 23, 2014 4:07 pm

Kingwood31 wrote:Boy it got dead quick lol

Just a wait and see game at this point. Radar trends do look good

Thu Jan 23, 2014 4:10 pm

Yeah, that's never a good sign. ..

Thu Jan 23, 2014 4:12 pm

until the temps drop below freezing we just have cold rain

Thu Jan 23, 2014 4:16 pm

Maybe a silly question, but do we need to worry about pipes and plants? I've heard mention of pets, but that's it. Is that because it will be a semi-short event? We're in Cypress - 36 and light drizzle here.

Thanks!

Thu Jan 23, 2014 4:18 pm

i have 39 here near baytown

January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

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