December: New Years Eve Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Ptarmigan
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jeff wrote:
Paul Robison wrote:
Katdaddy wrote:Not even near that Paul.
Also do not appreciate the term: Fun-derstorm! I have seen storms from systems like this generate UNBELIEVABLY powerful lightning and winds. I was nearly killed by an exploding transformer once(!) If SPC is right, wind damage/power outages will be widespread. STAY TUNED!
I don't think SPC said anything close to that...in fact the Day 4-8 period has too low a potential to include a risk at the moment.
There have been severe weather in December. The SPC even issued high risk for December 23, 2002 storm. It was quite a storm with tornadoes, hail, and strong wind. I am not in any way saying we will see the 2002 event this weekend. What I am saying is that severe weather can happen in December and they can be quite nasty.

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1835

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=severe_w ... understorm
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Another chilly morning across our Region, but dew points have risen, so no heavy frost issues today (we did have frost on roof tops in NW Harris County with a low temp of 33 F). The surface high pressure ridge over Louisiana will slide E today and a return flow off the Gulf will begin with SE winds and warming temps and increasing moisture as well as fog. Today should be the end of the sorely needed sunshine before clouds increase and sea fog develops and temperatures continue to moderate to above normal. As you can see by the December Update from NWS Houston/Galveston, we have been below normal for 3 weeks. (see Below)

The general synoptic pattern of a split zonal flow where the cold air is bottled up along the Northern US and a Ridge off the Pacific West Coast and a SE Ridge over the Bahamas should allow for further warming and streamer showers and drizzle to develop by Friday. Changes lurk ahead as a potent short wave dives S into the Baja/Southern California late Thursday and cuts off while a modified Polar front drops S into Texas on Friday.

Uncertainty arises as to how far S the front sags before stalling across Central Texas as well as when the SW upper low begins its journey E towards Texas. The GFS appears to be too fast moving the U/L to the E while the Euro and Canadian are slower. Since the slower ejection solution of similar patterns we have seen so far this fall season seems likely, more credence will be given to the non American guidance at this time.

Saturday should be the warmest day we see this week and also the most unsettled. Showers and storms, some possibly severe may warrant an increase in Severe Weather Watch mode and will need to be monitored later this week. It does appear that there is a chance for a bit of negative tilt to the trough which suggests all modes of severe weather may be possible. A surface low could develop over Central Texas on Saturday as the upper low approaches from NE Mexico. We will also need to monitor for the potential of heavy rainfall as moisture increases to near 3 standard deviation above normal for this time of year. Saturday evening could be very stormy, so be aware if you have Holiday party plans.

Sunday looks to turn much colder as the front finally pushes offshore. Another stronger front may pass on Monday as a wound up Winter Storm moves NE across the Mid Mississippi Valley towards the Upper Mid West early next week. With a general pattern of a Ridge to our West offshore of the Coast of California and another to our East offshore in the Atlantic, cooler and dry weather should arrive for Christmas.

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
744 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2013

...COLD START TO THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...

THE FIRST FOUR DAYS OF DECEMBER STARTED ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE AN
ARCTIC FRONT HEADED SOUTHWARDS AND DROPPED TEMPERATURES
DRASTICALLY ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WERE COMMON ACROSS
THE FOUR FIRST-ORDER CLIMATE SITES. THE EVEN MORE UNUSUAL NATURE
OF THE COLD AIR IS HOW LONG SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL
NOW. EVEN THOUGH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS LONG SINCE MOVED OFF A
SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS HAS KEPT SOUTHEAST TEXAS BELOW
NORMAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE
MONTH TO DATE (DEC 1ST - 14TH) DEPARTURE FROM NORMALS(1981 - 2010)
FOR THE FOUR FIRST- ORDER CLIMATE SITES IN OUR AREA:

SITE                    MONTHLY TEMP (DEPARTURE)
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)          47.5(-6.0)
CITY OF HOUSTON (IAH)          51.3(-4.4)
HOUSTON HOBBY (HOU)            52.4(-4.5)
CITY OF GALVESTON (GLS)        53.4(-5.3)

BUT HOW COLD IS THIS FOR THE FIRST 14 DAYS OF DECEMBER? FOR
COLLEGE STATION IT RANKS THE 7TH COLDEST START TO DECEMBER WITH
RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1902. THE CITY OF HOUSTON RANKS AS THE 16TH
COLDEST START TO DECEMBER WITH RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1892. THE
52.4 AT HOUSTON HOBBY RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST START TO DECEMBER
WITH RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1944. THE CITY OF GALVESTON RANKS AS
THE 12TH COLDEST START TO DECEMBER (TIED WITH 1936) WITH RECORDS
GOING BACK TO 1874.

23


...WARM UP POSSIBLE?...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AFTER ALMOST THREE WEEKS OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PERIOD OF NOVEMBER 22ND THROUGH DECEMBER 15TH WAS
THE THIRD COLDEST ON RECORD FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND THE CITY OF GALVESTON
AND THE SECOND COLDEST ON RECORD FOR COLLEGE STATION AND HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT.
HERE ARE THE FIVE COLDEST NOV 22 - DEC 15 FOR THE FOUR FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES.

           CITY OF        CITY OF         HOUSTON       COLLEGE
           HOUSTON        GALVESTON       HOBBY         STATION

         47.0 1898        48.2 1898       49.2 1937     44.3 1972
         48.9 1976        51.6 1937       50.4 2013     46.3 2013
         49.4 2013        51.9 2013       50.5 1976     47.7 1937
         50.3 1972        52.0 1976       52.2 1979     48.0 1976
         50.8 1937        53.5 1911       52.9 1963     49.0 1963
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
118 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2013

VALID 12Z FRI DEC 20 2013 - 12Z TUE DEC 24 2013

...OVERVIEW...
GEFS...NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLES RECOGNIZE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND CONFLUENT PATTERN DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NORTH ATLANTIC THIS MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.

NORTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED WITH A SERIES OF
MIGRATORY PACIFIC SYSTEMS AND WILL LIKELY CONTAIN THE WINTER-TYPE
PRECIPITATION--MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES-PLAINS...GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FROM A SYNOPTIC-SCALE
PERSPECTIVE...THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK SHOULD BE A SERIES OF SUBTLE
BUT DISTINGUISHABLE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TRACKING FROM THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES OF ALBERTA...EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAINS THE VOLATILE 'WILD
CARD'...WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MID-RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE
OZARKS AND OHIO VALLEYS. THE VOLATILITY WILL BE TWO-FOLD...A BROAD
MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MIGRATES INLAND
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A DIGGING EASTERN PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE...THAT BRIEFLY CLOSES OFF INVOF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
BASIN--THEN EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
PLAINS. BOTH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER DECENT PULSES OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DOWNSTREAM
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


BOTH JET STREAMS MERGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTHEAST AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES...GENERATING A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTHEAST OF
GREENLAND. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE MERGING STREAMS SERVE AS
THE WESTERN/NORTHWEST FLANKS OF STRONG RIDGING IN THE
BAHAMAS...FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

...MODEL PREFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS WPC GRAPHICS THROUGH DAY 7 WAS AN EASY
TASK...WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 16/12Z EC ENSEMBLES MEAN AND
NAEFS MEANS MAINTAINING DECENT CONTINUITY WITH THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT DAY 4-5...BUT THE MEANS GENERALLY
LOSE ANY/ALL SUBTLE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURES EXITING SOUTHERN
ALBERTA. GIVEN THE STRONGLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE MEANS FOCUS OF
THE CENTERS OF HIGH PRESSURE RATHER THAN ANY MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW MIGRATING DOWNSTREAM FROM WEST TO EAST. BOTH MEANS MAINTAIN
MORE OF A DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW FROM THE OZARKS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST-CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

SOME ASPECTS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE VALID AND
COULD ADD DETAIL TO THE PROJECTED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD.

THE 16/12Z DETERMINISTIC UKMET...15/18Z GFS AND 15/12Z ECMWF HAD
THE GENERAL IDEA ALL ALONG...WITH A SECOND ALBERTA CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND ALL RECENT PIECES OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO REAFFIRM
THE FRONTAL POSITION AT THE START OF DAY 3 (20/12Z) BETWEEN LAKE
HURON AND THE SOUTHERN OZARKS. THIS HAS BEEN A TRACK-ABLE FEATURE
FOR 5 DAYS NOW...AND IS GOING TO BE RATHER CLOSE TO THE MODEL
PROGS FROM 12Z DECEMBER 13TH.

THE FACT THAT THE FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND ARCTIC CANADA
HAS RESOLVED ITSELF...ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST...WITH THE
DAY 3 OPEN WAVE EXITING THE GREAT LAKES--SHEARING OUT QUICKLY OVER
EASTERN CANADA. IT IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE EXITING
SOUTHERN ALBERTA...BY DAY 4-5...AND TAKING A STORM TRACK THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A THIRD SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
CANADA ROCKIES DAYS 6-7.


THE SPACING BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
ACCURATE AND PREDICTABLE. THIS DAY 4-5 WAVE TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA BRINGS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY...IS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR MORE PACIFIC ENERGY TO ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
THE PACIFIC AND INTO/THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKIES
THROUGH THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THIS SERVES AS THE
RATHER STABLE NORTHERN STREAM SPLIT IN THE FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE CONTINENT.

THE 16/12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...THOUGH NOT PERFECT...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE LATEST IDEA
IS FOR AT LEAST TWO PULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION
TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TAPPING THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HENCE...THE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ON SATURDAY OVER TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND
LOUISIANA-ARKANSAS AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.


HERE...THE EC AND NAEFS MEANS BASICALLY STRETCH OUT THE SURFACE
TROUGH NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE MID-OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS RUNNING AT
DIFFERENT PACES ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE...THE MEANS CONTINUE TO
SERVE AS THE BASELINE FOR THE SURFACE GRAPHICS. BUT THE 16/12Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS...CANADIAN AND/OR ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A 996MB TO
1000MB SURFACE WAVE AND BROAD WARM FRONT DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...AND REMAINING SEPARATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM UNTIL
THEY CAN MERGE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THIS SEEMS TO FIT THE GENERAL IDEA THAT A CONFLUENT FLOW AND AREA
FOR MERGING JET STREAMS WILL REMAIN INVOF THE NORTHEAST AND
ATLANTIC CANADA THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
BROAD-SCALE WARM UP AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTAIN A
MODIFIED WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AIRMASS.

HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT(S) ARE GATHERING MODEL MOMENTUM AND CONSENSUS
INVOF THE MERGING JET STREAMS WITH EMPHASIS ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM'S ABILITY TO GATHER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE GULF. THIS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN EARNEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF
TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...THE OZARKS EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AND THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

VOJTESAK
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Here's a meteogram based on the midnight run of the GFS. Not a lot of rain this weekend, but some quite nice temps by Friday. Warm enough that I'm taking Friday off to hit the bike. Cold front slips through by early Sunday and temps fall prior to Christmas. It's indicating temps in the mid to upper 30s for Christmas morning.

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What a depressing forecast for the Holidays. Way too warm....
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wxman57
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Not much change from 06Z to 12Z on the GFS. Very little rain this weekend. Front moves through around 6pm Saturday. That's a good bit earlier than it was forecasting yesterday. 00Z Euro was saying around 3am Sunday. Let's see what it says on the next run, which I should have in a couple of hours.

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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Canadian suggests a bit more in the way of shower and storm chances and also some wrap around wintry weather across portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle extending E into Central Oklahoma into Missouri as the storm system exits Texas.
12172013 12Z CMC f102.gif
12172013 12Z CMC f108.gif
12172013 12Z CMC f114.gif
12172013 12Z CMC f120.gif
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Funderstorms, schmunderstorms ... I want winter weather! :evil:

Actually, we'd welcome an inch or two of liquid gold here in the Land Saban Forgot

12z European drops a 1056mb high into the state of Montana about 10 days out, often the right trajectory for a plunge of polar air into Texas. Sadly that is all my hopes are reduced to at this point.
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It also appears via the Euro and Canadian that a re enforcing shot of 'colder air' may arrive on Christmas Day. That is beyond the medium range period, so take that with a grain of salt. That said is does look like a icy mess may spread up the Mid Mississippi /Ohio Valley as the storm system wraps up after leaving Texas heading NE.
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12172013 1930 Z ZR Probs Day 3 prb_24hicez_ge_01_2013121800f072.gif
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As an Aggie and LSU Tiger, I pray the Horns hire Mora, Graham or an O'Brien type.

I would be fearful of a Briles, Franklin, Strong type hire.

Tomlin, Harbaugh and Carroll aren't happening now or ever.






As for our weather, my preferences aren't made out of a snowy Hallmark Christmas card. After enduring what can only be described as HELL (May-late September) every year in this area, all I ask for is at least "cool" weather during the Holidays, and preferably all the way from December through early March. Cool is defined as 60 or below.

Anything above 60 during the holidays is unacceptable. Anything above 70 during Winter can kiss my backside. Seriously though, if Houston wasn't an economic powerhouse with great manufacturing and opportunities in the O&G industry, I'd be on the first ticket out of town to another city. The weather here is terrible.

With that said, I do not envy my brother who lives in Rapid City, SD and endures a Wintry Hell of "too cold" temps. I'd probably move to Durango or Silverton, CO if money or career was not an important variable.
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srainhoutx
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For those wanting winter weather, I wouldn't give up hope just yet. We have many weeks of potential left and with that warm pool across the Northern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, I suspect that upper pattern will transition back to colder weather and possibly a noisy sub tropical jet and continued disturbances dropping S into Southern California as well a strong upper air disturbance bringing all that building cold air in Canada and Eastern Alaska S into the Inter Mountain West and Plains.
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12172013 12Z Euro Canadian GFS Compare test8.gif
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wxman57
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It's not even winter yet, folks. 12Z Euro has a 1058mb high dropping into the Northern Plains by the 27th with temps there 45-50 degrees below normal. We'll see if that materializes and how we might be impacted in another 5-7 days.
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12Z Euro is in through 348hrs (ensembles). Indicates quite a high pressure anomaly in the Central Plains by New Year's Eve with strong cross-Polar flow. Perhaps this will be the Arctic air that finally reaches us?
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wxman57 wrote:It's not even winter yet, folks. 12Z Euro has a 1058mb high dropping into the Northern Plains by the 27th with temps there 45-50 degrees below normal. We'll see if that materializes and how we might be impacted in another 5-7 days.

I did not see this post.
I did not read this post.
I will not be suckered in again by the long range models. :D
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wxman57 wrote:12Z Euro is in through 348hrs (ensembles). Indicates quite a high pressure anomaly in the Central Plains by New Year's Eve with strong cross-Polar flow. Perhaps this will be the Arctic air that finally reaches us?


You're such a nice fellow ... throwing us winter-mongerers a few scraps here and there. Thank you kind sir. ;)
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Portastorm wrote:
You're such a nice fellow ... throwing us winter-mongerers a few scraps here and there. Thank you kind sir. ;)
You're welcome. I still have control of the weather machine this week and am cranking up the southerly winds for Thu-Sat to bring us some heat. (PS: any news on the S2K issue?)
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Reached 73 here (outside my home) on the border in Del Rio today. :evil:
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wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
You're such a nice fellow ... throwing us winter-mongerers a few scraps here and there. Thank you kind sir. ;)
You're welcome. I still have control of the weather machine this week and am cranking up the southerly winds for Thu-Sat to bring us some heat. (PS: any news on the S2K issue?)

Indeed you do and it appears you're already at work. Here in Austin, we reached 73 degrees for a high temperature. More to follow this week except warmer.

No news on S2K. Admin team is at the mercy of the company who hosts the forum and several requests have been made to re-boot or whatever it's called.
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What a glorious day to get some badly need natural Vitamin D and outdoor chores completed after being cooped up in the house with the heater running non stop for 3 weeks. Pool filters and Koi pond filters cleaned. Life is good. Now back to winter. :P
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srainhoutx wrote:What a glorious day to get some badly need natural Vitamin D and outdoor chores completed after being cooped up in the house with the heater running non stop for 3 weeks. Pool filters and Koi pond filters cleaned. Life is good. Now back to winter. :P

Winter? But it's summer! Lol 80 degrees at the end of the week.

I'll take some 90s as well
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wxman57 wrote:12Z Euro is in through 348hrs (ensembles). Indicates quite a high pressure anomaly in the Central Plains by New Year's Eve with strong cross-Polar flow. Perhaps this will be the Arctic air that finally reaches us?


I don't think so...maybe highs in the 50s lows in the mid to upper 30s if we're lucky. It's so far out...the ensembles will trend warmer in a few days
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