NOVEMBER: Warming Up To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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ticka1
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The question to ask right now - when will we see our first blue norther in November and or will we continue to see this wet weather pattern across SE Texas area?
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srainhoutx
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The over night guidance continues to advertise a very unsettled pattern as we head into the first week of November. Yet another deep Western trough develops that taps into abundant tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific suggesting another heavy rainfall threat next Tuesday into Thursday. While it is too soon to know with any certainty exactly how much additional rainfall we will see, the pattern suggests that we may be stuck in a regime where a somewhat blocking pattern evolves where the storm track dips SE into the Great Basin/Inter Mountain West and heads NE from the Southern Plains. We may be able to finally declare the long term Texas drought over if such a pattern does in fact develop. We will see.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z operational Euro is suggesting a deep Western trough and the potential for another heavy rainfall event beginning next Tuesday.
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10312013 12Z Euro f120.gif
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Paul Robison

From the recent GFS (18z) model runs, I think today's Halloween weather system is more impressive than next weeks' will be. Any differing opinions?

Edit:
As to severe weather, I'd say we've been lucky this year, eh?
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srainhoutx
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Once again we are facing a very complex and complicated pattern where a deep Western trough that appears to be slow moving and abundant Gulf moisture heads inland into the Southern Plains as well as deep tropical moisture associated with yet another EPAC tropical cyclone (future TS Sonia) combine to bring another heavy rainfall event for portions of Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas/Arkansas and Louisiana. What complicates the forecast this time is the guidance is suggesting a stronger SE Ridge that would tend to block the forward progression of the trough lending to another multi day heavy rainfall event that extends mid to late week time frame of the first full week of November. It is noteworthy that portions of the Hill County in Central Texas received nearly 15 inches of rainfall on October 30-31 and general amounts in the 4-8 inch range fell across the Eastern half of Texas into Louisiana with isolated higher amounts near 10 to 11 inches. Any additional heavy rainfall return in a short period would lead to additional flooding threat across a Region that has received above normal amounts of rainfall for the month of October.
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Portastorm
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In their morning forecast discussion, NWSFO Austin/San Antonio (EWX) said the dewpoints for next week look as much as 5 degrees lower than this week's event. That, in turn, would limit the potential for excessively heavy rain. However, we all know that we're talking about a potential weather event some 96 hours away and a lot can change. The development of Sonia in the Pacific should play a large role.

Next week should be interesting. Heck, this fall has been interesting for us in south central Texas.

FYI -- major lowland flooding occurring this morning in Bastrop as the wave of water which fell along the I-35 corridor yesterday makes its way down the Colorado towards the Gulf.
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wxman57
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It does look like another line of storms may move through next Wednesday night/Thursday morning ahead of another cold front. Rainfall probably won't be as heavy as with yesterday's front.
Paul Robison

wxman57 wrote:It does look like another line of storms may move through next Wednesday night/Thursday morning ahead of another cold front. Rainfall probably won't be as heavy as with yesterday's front.

Question, not trolling: What about severe thunderstorms? How do the prospects look for those?
biffb816
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Well, where did this little bit of weather come from?
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