NOVEMBER: Warming Up To End The Month

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srainhoutx
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013

...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY...

.A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY 4 AM FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SUB-
FREEZING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW...WITH PERIODS OF VERY
LIGHT RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. GROUND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN MAKING CONTACT WITH
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL INSTANTLY
FREEZE AND RESULT IN LIGHT ICING...MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117-129>132-141>143-220615-
/O.NEW.KFWD.ZR.Y.0001.131122T1000Z-131123T1700Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-
EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...GRAHAM...
OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...BRECKENRIDGE...
MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...
GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...
GLEN ROSE...COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO
350 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM CST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM CST
SATURDAY.

* TIMING...4 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO .05 OF AN INCH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...LIGHT ICING TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LESS-TRAVELED SECONDARY
ROADS COULD SEE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL.
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Portastorm
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It appears nothing more than a cold rain will fall in the next few days in south central Texas. Rain is a good thing in these parts. I won't sniff at it for sake of wishing for something of a more wintry nature.

Cold, blustery, and wet ... great weekend for indoor football watching and cooking up a big vat of chicken tortilla soup!
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srainhoutx
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Portastorm wrote:It appears nothing more than a cold rain will fall in the next few days in south central Texas. Rain is a good thing in these parts. I won't sniff at it for sake of wishing for something of a more wintry nature.

Cold, blustery, and wet ... great weekend for indoor football watching and cooking up a big vat of chicken tortilla soup!
A batch of homemade deer and oyrx chili is the cards for the Srain household... ;)
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Radar starting to light up as the front advances across the Red River Valley.

Image
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srainhoutx
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From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/21/13 2224Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2200Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1636Z 1911Z 2050Z
.
LOCATION...ARKANSAS...E TEXAS...SE OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...FRONT BEGINNING TO SLAM INTO DEEP MOISTURE AND TRANSPORT FROM
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR INCREASING RAIN NE TEXAS INTO SE OK AND SW
ARKANSAS...CONVECTION SE TEXAS AND C/E ARKANSAS PRIMING THAT AREA FOR
LATER ON...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...EXCEPTIONAL MOISTURE FOR NOVEMBER AS
PER LATEST GPS VALUES EASTERN TEXAS AND SPILLING INTO ARKANSAS...SE
OKLAHOMA AND LOUISIANA AND BLENDED TPW SHOWING EXPANSION OF DEEP MOISTURE
NORTHEAST ACROSS C ARKANSAS INTO SE MO AND WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
ALONG WITH INCREASING VALUES AND AREAL EXTENT OF DEEP MOISTURE...MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WAS VERY GOOD FROM YUCATAN/SW GULF OF MEXICO INTO SE/E TEXAS
AND TAKING THAT DEEP MOISTURE INTO SE OK...W LA AND ARKANSAS. SO THE
MOISTURE PUMP IS WORKING OVERTIME THESE AREAS AS MOISTURE WELL ABOVE 170
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND IN SOME AREAS WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO AND JUST AT THE TIME VERY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW CROSSING NW
TEXAS...S CENTRAL TO E CENTRAL TEXAS AND NW ARKANSAS IS ABOUT TO MEET UP
WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE. ALREADY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ACROSS SE TO INTERIOR
E CENTRAL/NE TEXAS PRODUCING LOCALLY HVY RAINS. WALLER...BRAZOS...
LEON...W HARRIS COUNTY AREAS OF LOCALLY HVY RAINS. FRONTAL BAND AS IT
APPROACHES VERY HIGH MOISTURE ALSO STARTING SHOW SOME COOLER TOPS ACROSS
N CENTRAL TEXAS/S CENTRAL OK AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN INCREASE IN
BOTH AREL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS AS FRONT PENETRATES FURTHER INTO UNUSUALLY
HIGH MOISTURE AND TRANSPORT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2215-0115Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN BOTH AREA AND AMOUNTS OF
RAIN N CENTRAL TO INTERIOR NE TEXAS AND SE OKLAHOMA INTO SW ARKANSAS.
FRONT WILL KEEP SETTLING SOUTH AND SE ACROSS N AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...SE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS FOR THAT INCREASE IN BOTH AREA AND AMOUNTS.
WITH PWATS MAXING OUT AT 1.75" AND FURTHER INCRG NEXT 3HRS...MAX RAIN
RATES COULD INCREASE TO 1.5"/HR AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PENETRATE FURTHER
INTO DEEP MOISTURE. FLOW AS PER GOES WATER VAPOR WEST TO WEST/SW...SO
FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW BUT STEADY AND PUSHING S AND SE BASED ON
COLD AIR PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
PROBABLY AFTER THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AREAS CURRENTLY
RECEIVING LOCALLY HVY RAIN...IE INTERIOR SE AND NE TEXAS AND C TO
INTERIOR EASTERN ARKANSAS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT COULD HEIGHTEN
FF THREAT.
.
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srainhoutx
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Folks there is a lot of severe weather breaking out across SE Texas into the Dallas/Ft Worth area. Reports of a wall could spotted just N of the Texas A & M Campus, so don't forget the severe side of this incoming storm system.
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Andrew
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srainhoutx wrote:Folks there is a lot of severe weather breaking out across SE Texas into the Dallas/Ft Worth area. Reports of a wall could spotted just N of the Texas A & M Campus, so don't forget the severe side of this incoming storm system.

Yea many students have been on the observation deck (15 floors up) and have noticed many wall cloud progressions. There have been mutiple reports of funnels or wall clouds throughout Texas today. Keep an eye out everyone.
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srainhoutx
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Update from Jeff:

Arctic boundary is blasting southward this afternoon and has cleared the panhandle and is pushing toward NC TX. Temperatures behind the boundary are falling rapidly into the 40’s with upstream air mass near Amarillo now in the upper 20’s winds NW winds of 30-45mph.

Will speed up frontal timing to reach our NW counties prior to sunrise and push off the coast by midday. Temperatures will quickly fall into the 40’s during the afternoon hours under strong cold air advection regime and then fall into the upper 30’s Friday night.

Surface temperatures should remain above freezing across all of SE TX precluding freezing rain Friday night into Saturday, but freezing rain is becoming increasing likely with potential for glazing of bridges and overpasses NW of our area from roughly Fort Worth to W of Waco to NW of Austin.

Models continue to come in slightly faster and a touch colder with the winter storm to affect the state late in the weekend into early next week. Latest guidance is suggesting the potential for a prolonged ice/sleet storm across much of N TX into the Hill Country starting Sunday morning and continuing into midday Monday with significant impacts. Our northern counties are getting very close to being on the edge of the potential rain/sleet line and would not be surprised if models come in a degree or two colder that sleet would be possible Sunday night into Monday morning N of a line from Livingston to College Station. Still expect surface temperatures to remain above freezing in this region, but that could be a close call also with current forecasted lows in the 34-36 range only a slight bit of additional cooling could result in some icing.

Metro Houston area will be cold but all liquid and in fact depending on the track of the coastal surface low…a few strong/severe storms could be possible near the coast as this very dynamic weather system pushes across on Monday into Tuesday.

Best to go ahead and lower temperatures through the entire period. Suspect from Friday night-Tuesday night temperatures will range from the mid 30’s to mid 40’s. Some locations may very well stay in the 30’s the entire time from early Saturday through early Tuesday.

Note: Numerous winter weather and winter storm advisories/watches will be issued over the next 12-24 hours to cover the upcoming winter storm impacts across the state for this weekend into early next week. Persons with travel plans to areas west of I-35 this weekend should be fully aware of the potential for impacts to both surface and aviation travel due to ice.
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poobear55
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I an a long time lurker and seldom post. However, I am very interested in anybody's best guess as to what the Baylor Bears could expect (weather wise) in Stillwater this Saturday night around 7pm. thanks!
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poobear55 wrote:I an a long time lurker and seldom post. However, I am very interested in anybody's best guess as to what the Baylor Bears could expect (weather wise) in Stillwater this Saturday night around 7pm. thanks!

Hey poobear! Thanks for joining! As for Stillwater models are indicating a possible break in the action for Saturday but cloud cover and possible precipitation will increase throughout the evening into Sunday morning. With the increased speed of the front things could be a little more active than previously foretasted. Either way it will be cold with low in the lower 20's.
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