NOVEMBER: Warming Up To End The Month

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srainhoutx
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013

...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY...

.A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY 4 AM FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SUB-
FREEZING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW...WITH PERIODS OF VERY
LIGHT RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. GROUND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN MAKING CONTACT WITH
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL INSTANTLY
FREEZE AND RESULT IN LIGHT ICING...MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117-129>132-141>143-220615-
/O.NEW.KFWD.ZR.Y.0001.131122T1000Z-131123T1700Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-
EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...GRAHAM...
OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...BRECKENRIDGE...
MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...
GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...
GLEN ROSE...COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO
350 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM CST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM CST
SATURDAY.

* TIMING...4 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO .05 OF AN INCH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...LIGHT ICING TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LESS-TRAVELED SECONDARY
ROADS COULD SEE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL.
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Portastorm
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It appears nothing more than a cold rain will fall in the next few days in south central Texas. Rain is a good thing in these parts. I won't sniff at it for sake of wishing for something of a more wintry nature.

Cold, blustery, and wet ... great weekend for indoor football watching and cooking up a big vat of chicken tortilla soup!
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Portastorm wrote:It appears nothing more than a cold rain will fall in the next few days in south central Texas. Rain is a good thing in these parts. I won't sniff at it for sake of wishing for something of a more wintry nature.

Cold, blustery, and wet ... great weekend for indoor football watching and cooking up a big vat of chicken tortilla soup!
A batch of homemade deer and oyrx chili is the cards for the Srain household... ;)
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Radar starting to light up as the front advances across the Red River Valley.

Image
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srainhoutx
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From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/21/13 2224Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2200Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1636Z 1911Z 2050Z
.
LOCATION...ARKANSAS...E TEXAS...SE OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...FRONT BEGINNING TO SLAM INTO DEEP MOISTURE AND TRANSPORT FROM
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR INCREASING RAIN NE TEXAS INTO SE OK AND SW
ARKANSAS...CONVECTION SE TEXAS AND C/E ARKANSAS PRIMING THAT AREA FOR
LATER ON...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...EXCEPTIONAL MOISTURE FOR NOVEMBER AS
PER LATEST GPS VALUES EASTERN TEXAS AND SPILLING INTO ARKANSAS...SE
OKLAHOMA AND LOUISIANA AND BLENDED TPW SHOWING EXPANSION OF DEEP MOISTURE
NORTHEAST ACROSS C ARKANSAS INTO SE MO AND WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
ALONG WITH INCREASING VALUES AND AREAL EXTENT OF DEEP MOISTURE...MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WAS VERY GOOD FROM YUCATAN/SW GULF OF MEXICO INTO SE/E TEXAS
AND TAKING THAT DEEP MOISTURE INTO SE OK...W LA AND ARKANSAS. SO THE
MOISTURE PUMP IS WORKING OVERTIME THESE AREAS AS MOISTURE WELL ABOVE 170
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND IN SOME AREAS WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO AND JUST AT THE TIME VERY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW CROSSING NW
TEXAS...S CENTRAL TO E CENTRAL TEXAS AND NW ARKANSAS IS ABOUT TO MEET UP
WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE. ALREADY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ACROSS SE TO INTERIOR
E CENTRAL/NE TEXAS PRODUCING LOCALLY HVY RAINS. WALLER...BRAZOS...
LEON...W HARRIS COUNTY AREAS OF LOCALLY HVY RAINS. FRONTAL BAND AS IT
APPROACHES VERY HIGH MOISTURE ALSO STARTING SHOW SOME COOLER TOPS ACROSS
N CENTRAL TEXAS/S CENTRAL OK AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN INCREASE IN
BOTH AREL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS AS FRONT PENETRATES FURTHER INTO UNUSUALLY
HIGH MOISTURE AND TRANSPORT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2215-0115Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN BOTH AREA AND AMOUNTS OF
RAIN N CENTRAL TO INTERIOR NE TEXAS AND SE OKLAHOMA INTO SW ARKANSAS.
FRONT WILL KEEP SETTLING SOUTH AND SE ACROSS N AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...SE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS FOR THAT INCREASE IN BOTH AREA AND AMOUNTS.
WITH PWATS MAXING OUT AT 1.75" AND FURTHER INCRG NEXT 3HRS...MAX RAIN
RATES COULD INCREASE TO 1.5"/HR AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PENETRATE FURTHER
INTO DEEP MOISTURE. FLOW AS PER GOES WATER VAPOR WEST TO WEST/SW...SO
FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW BUT STEADY AND PUSHING S AND SE BASED ON
COLD AIR PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
PROBABLY AFTER THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AREAS CURRENTLY
RECEIVING LOCALLY HVY RAIN...IE INTERIOR SE AND NE TEXAS AND C TO
INTERIOR EASTERN ARKANSAS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT COULD HEIGHTEN
FF THREAT.
.
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Folks there is a lot of severe weather breaking out across SE Texas into the Dallas/Ft Worth area. Reports of a wall could spotted just N of the Texas A & M Campus, so don't forget the severe side of this incoming storm system.
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srainhoutx wrote:Folks there is a lot of severe weather breaking out across SE Texas into the Dallas/Ft Worth area. Reports of a wall could spotted just N of the Texas A & M Campus, so don't forget the severe side of this incoming storm system.

Yea many students have been on the observation deck (15 floors up) and have noticed many wall cloud progressions. There have been mutiple reports of funnels or wall clouds throughout Texas today. Keep an eye out everyone.
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Update from Jeff:

Arctic boundary is blasting southward this afternoon and has cleared the panhandle and is pushing toward NC TX. Temperatures behind the boundary are falling rapidly into the 40’s with upstream air mass near Amarillo now in the upper 20’s winds NW winds of 30-45mph.

Will speed up frontal timing to reach our NW counties prior to sunrise and push off the coast by midday. Temperatures will quickly fall into the 40’s during the afternoon hours under strong cold air advection regime and then fall into the upper 30’s Friday night.

Surface temperatures should remain above freezing across all of SE TX precluding freezing rain Friday night into Saturday, but freezing rain is becoming increasing likely with potential for glazing of bridges and overpasses NW of our area from roughly Fort Worth to W of Waco to NW of Austin.

Models continue to come in slightly faster and a touch colder with the winter storm to affect the state late in the weekend into early next week. Latest guidance is suggesting the potential for a prolonged ice/sleet storm across much of N TX into the Hill Country starting Sunday morning and continuing into midday Monday with significant impacts. Our northern counties are getting very close to being on the edge of the potential rain/sleet line and would not be surprised if models come in a degree or two colder that sleet would be possible Sunday night into Monday morning N of a line from Livingston to College Station. Still expect surface temperatures to remain above freezing in this region, but that could be a close call also with current forecasted lows in the 34-36 range only a slight bit of additional cooling could result in some icing.

Metro Houston area will be cold but all liquid and in fact depending on the track of the coastal surface low…a few strong/severe storms could be possible near the coast as this very dynamic weather system pushes across on Monday into Tuesday.

Best to go ahead and lower temperatures through the entire period. Suspect from Friday night-Tuesday night temperatures will range from the mid 30’s to mid 40’s. Some locations may very well stay in the 30’s the entire time from early Saturday through early Tuesday.

Note: Numerous winter weather and winter storm advisories/watches will be issued over the next 12-24 hours to cover the upcoming winter storm impacts across the state for this weekend into early next week. Persons with travel plans to areas west of I-35 this weekend should be fully aware of the potential for impacts to both surface and aviation travel due to ice.
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I an a long time lurker and seldom post. However, I am very interested in anybody's best guess as to what the Baylor Bears could expect (weather wise) in Stillwater this Saturday night around 7pm. thanks!
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poobear55 wrote:I an a long time lurker and seldom post. However, I am very interested in anybody's best guess as to what the Baylor Bears could expect (weather wise) in Stillwater this Saturday night around 7pm. thanks!

Hey poobear! Thanks for joining! As for Stillwater models are indicating a possible break in the action for Saturday but cloud cover and possible precipitation will increase throughout the evening into Sunday morning. With the increased speed of the front things could be a little more active than previously foretasted. Either way it will be cold with low in the lower 20's.
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As SRain noted earlier:
Folks there is a lot of severe weather breaking out across SE Texas into the Dallas/Ft Worth area. Reports of a wall could spotted just N of the Texas A & M Campus, so don't forget the severe side of this incoming storm system.
Surface based Cape values are quite impressive, especially S/E of Metroplex and also along upper Texas coastal areas and S/West of greater Houston. A severe thunderstorm warning for the Metroplex in effect as front drives South tapping the warm moist air surging towards the boundary. Hail appears to be the primary threat with these elevated storms and we may see a surge of activity break out tomorrow morning as the front approaches. Image
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Impressive ULL is setting up shop N/West of San Diego area. Image
Last edited by PaulEInHouston on Thu Nov 21, 2013 8:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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GFS coming in stronger/ colder sunday night/ monday morning. Looks like some of our NW counties may see a little wintry precip. The main key in determining p-types will most likely depend on the dry slot that could appear in the mid levels. If enough evaporation occurs FR could occur. This area of freezing temps is very shallow in depth (only about 800m) before their is a strong inversion at 900mb. It is going to be a close one and any difference in temperature is going to be crucial.

KCLL Skew T (notice the inversion only a 1000m up)
2894.GIF
925mb HT, Temp, and Winds:
gfs_namer_072_925_temp_ht.gif

Also to note the High-res NAM seems to indicate that some sightly elevated storms could be possible Saturday (especially for the counties to the north) and transition south throughout the day/night
nam-hires_namer_039_sim_reflectivity.gif
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Freezes in November are not all that rare.

Years That Had 32°F or Below In November At KIAH
1969
1970
1972
1974
1975
1976
1977
1979
1980
1984
1987
1990
1991
1992
1993
1997
1999
2006
2010

Some of these Novembers are the coldest on record.
Top 10 Coolest
51.8 1976*
54.4 1889
54.7 1972*
55.0 1929
55.7 1997*
55.7 1979*
56.1 1898
56.5 1959
56.7 1991*
56.8 1992*

* At KIAH

Some of these cold Novembers had cold winters like 1972-1973, 1976-1977, and 1977-1978. November 1989 had record highs of 89°F and December 1989 was cold.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_normals_nov
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_nov
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NWS Ft Worth/Dallas issues Winter Storm Watch for Sunday across the Metroplex. NWS San Antonio/Austin issues Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the Hill Country for Tonight into Saturday.

The latest update from the WPC/HPC Winter Weather desk suggests that portions of SW/Central Texas may see icing greater than 0.25 Inch and they may need to expand their Day 3 Outlook further S and E later today.. The Euro/SREF is suggesting the Northern portions of SE Texas may need Winter Weather Advisories for Sunday night into early Monday.
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Front has cleared my area of NW Harris County. Gusty NW winds to just below 30 mph and temps dropped from 72 to 58 in less than ten minutes. I'ts going to be a miserable 4-5 days across our Region. The morning commute is not going to be pleasant with the heavy rains.
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Morning Update from Jeff:

Lots going on this morning….

Arctic boundary is blasting through SE TX currently. Temperature is 46 at College Station with NW Winds gusting to 26 while it is 74 at Sugar Land. Front is making very good progress and will be off the coast by late morning/noon. High temperatures will be in the next few hours and then it will be a quick drop into the low 50’s as the front passes and into the 40’s by afternoon under strong NW winds and cloudy conditions with continued periods of rainfall. Line of thunderstorms has developed along the front producing a quick bout of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. The area will likely not see high temperatures above 60 again until possibly Thanksgiving day.

Tonight-Saturday night:

Arctic cold dome builds into TX with temperatures hovering in the 40’s and 30’s through this period. Upstream SW flow aloft will provide a few disturbances to ride up and over the surface cold air producing periods of rain and showers through Saturday. Increasingly drier air will filter SW into the region from the NE helping to end rainfall from the NE by late Saturday. Temperatures should remain above freezing across our entire area through this period so everything should be liquid. Ice could be a problem NW of a line from Fort Worth to Waco starting this afternoon.

Sunday-Monday:

Major winter storm heading for TX with significant impacts likely

Large upper level storm system will lift into the state out of the SW US late this weekend with cold air locked in place. The result will be a variety of liquid/freezing/frozen precipitation across a large part of TX from Sunday into Monday.

SE TX:

Coastal low will form late Sunday off the lower TX coast in response to large scale lift arriving from the west. This low will sling copious moisture northward into SE TX by afternoon with cloud decks lowering and thickening. Surface layer will dry out Saturday evening and then moisten again on Sunday. Expect to see rainfall develop from SW to NE late in the day and overspread much of the region Sunday night into Monday morning and jet dynamics and lift are increased. I am concerned with the P-type onset of the precipitation Sunday night north of a line from Brenham to Conroe to Livingston. With dry air in place below the cloud base layer there could be just enough wet bulb cooling to allowing a shrinking warm nose in the mid layer to allow onset as sleet. Other concern is surface temperatures in the mid 30’s north of the above mentioned line which with some evaporative cooling could drop to near freezing allowing for some freezing rain. Still too early to be confident in anything this far out, but there is a chance of some frozen/freezing precp. Monday morning north of a Brenham to Conroe to Livingston line. South of this line all rainfall will remain liquid as temperatures will hold in the upper 30’s to near 40 on Monday under widespread rainfall. Could even deal will some heavy rainfall along and south of US 59 depending on exactly where the coastal low tracks.

Tides could also become a problem on Monday as the pressure gradient really intensifies over the NW Gulf and strong ENE to NE winds push water toward the coast.

NC TX/Hill Country/NW TX:

Major winter storm expected with accumulations of ice and sleet. Onset of precipitation along and west of I-35 (Dallas to Waco area and then WSW into the Hill Country) on Sunday will be likely in the form of widespread sleet falling into a surface layer at or below freezing. Soundings suggest a prolonged sleet/freezing rain event from Sunday into midday Monday with some significant accumulations possible. NAM is showing significant snowfall in this area, but likely has the incorrect P-type as the forecast soundings show a defined warm nose and a fairly classic sleet profile. If the warm nose is a little deeper then the main result could be freezing rain and significant ice buildup. The most likely event at this point is likely a combination of sleet and freezing rain mix resulting in a crusty and heavy glazing of bridges and overpasses. Many trees still have foliage and icing will result in problems with trees and power lines. Not confident yet on ice/sleet accumulations, but some of the guidance is yielding upwards of an inch of sleet/ice mix in this region which would be a very significant ice storm event.

Tuesday-Thanksgiving:

Coastal and upper level storm move eastward with drying across the state, but still cold conditions. Should see clearing skies on Wednesday, but clouds may already start to return on Thanksgiving Day with continued cold conditions on lows in the 30’s and highs in the 50’s.

Note:

Persons with travel plans to the N and NW of SE TX this weekend should be fully aware of the potential winter storm impacts which will linger well into early next week. Numerous watches and advisories will be issued today to cover the various coming impacts. As with all winter weather events, the forecast will change and considering we are still about 48 hours from the onset of the event there remains a fair degree of uncertainty.

The following products have been issued west of a line from Dallas to west of Waco to Del Rio:



Winter Storm Watch

Winter Weather Advisory

Freezing Rain Advisory


 
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11222013 ZR Probs Sunday Night prb_24hicez_ge_01_2013112212f072.gif
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We've dropped 32 degrees here since midnight. Down to 41 chilly degrees in southwest Austin.
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Morning Porta from between Houston and Galveston. Front just making it's way through S/E Houston now with a pretty impressive line of showers with some embedded thunderstorms. Will be up in Llano area tomorrow through next week...will try and provide updates on conditions while up there. How does Austin area look for wintry precip chances? My daughter is up there at UT.

Greater Houston radar: http://wx.apxsolutionsinc.com/wxradarbaserefmetro.php
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