Wx Infinity Forums

I can't stop laughing.

Anyway, that was some hairy weather in Portland and Ingleside today.

Could Texas (ne'e Houston) be in for something like this on Saturday?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ec37TJGjXd4

Clearing skies this morning with frontal system now pushing off the coast. Very nice weather through Friday.

Keep vigilant!

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
302 PM CDT TUE OCT 22 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THIS AFTERNOON SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY.
THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY
NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE HILL
COUNTRY MAY SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. LOW DEWPOINTS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
DRY AIRMASS WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER THE REGION...SO ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO WARM DUE TO THE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS
STAY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A WEAK S/W ACROSS TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE RETURN FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE WEAK DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS/NOGAPS AND
ECMWF. THE GFS/NOGAPS HAS THE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER PUSHING THE FROPA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ATTM WE WILL USE THE GFS TIMING. ALL MODELS DO DEPICT THIS FRONT
TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH AMPLE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TUESDAY. A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF AS IT MOVE ACROSS TEXAS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
STATES.

THIS WEEKEND WILL BE INTERESTING AS AN APPROACHING WESTERN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING EAST IN NEAR-ZONAL FLOW DIGS
DOWN INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
WITHIN A MORE-MOISTENED ENVIRONMENT...AS RETURN FLOW OCCURS LATE
FRIDAY...TO INCREASE POPS TO MODERATE CHANCE. CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THERE HAS BEEN
(RECENTLY) DECENT AGREEMENT OF THIS S/W`S TIMING OF PASSAGE.
EARLY WORK WEEK WEATHER WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BENIGN AS THE S/W IS
ABSORBED BY A BROAD EASTERN U.S TROUGH WHILE AN AGGRESSIVE UPPER
ROCKY MOUNTAIN 5H TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG DOWN INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THE ENSEMBLE AGREES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHWEST
AND SLOW BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A
STRONG AND SHARP TROUGH AT MID-WEEK. AS OF NOW...IF NWP RUNS
REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS SYSTEM WILL PACK
QUITE THE PUNCH NEEDED TO GENERATE STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER DURING
THE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY TIME FRAME. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON HALLOWEEN WILL HAVE OCTOBER`S WEATHER CONCLUDING WITH QUITE THE
THE BANG. 31


Don't any of y'all remember what happened on Feb. 2, 2011? Christmas day 2012? Same kind of deal, folks! Get ready for this like you would a tropical storm or hurricane! This cold front is armed and dangerous!

Wa...???

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Just me, but I might wait a couple of days before going into full panic. At least wait until something shows up nearby on SPC SWODY4-8

If one trusts the 12Z GFS 180 hours out, 500 mb winds are much stronger North of here, and a positively tilted trough sometimes reduces the fun-derstorm potential.

Well, Ed, the current (18Z) GFS run does keep the worst of the rain and storms to the north of us AS USUAL! HAHAHA!



BUT:
I'll state my chief concern in one word: SUPERCELLS. Anyone think those likely with this Halloween cold front?

A cool morning as temps are in the 50s and a few upper 40s across SE TX. The beautiful weather continues today through Friday.

Morning update from Jeff:

Rather amplified upper air pattern will continue with troughing across the eastern US and ridging over the western US which will lead to dry and pleasant weather in the middle of the nation.

Cold front that crossed the area Tuesday morning is well offshore with surface high pressure and dry air in place resulting in a cool morning across the area with lows in the 40’s and 50’s. Surface high will remain in place through Friday keeping dewpoints low and rain chances at zero. A fast moving upper level disturbance will swing through the trough over the central plains this weekend and as this happens winds will swing around to the SE and the transport of Gulf moisture will begin across the area. Looks fairly dry still for Saturday, but lift from the short wave and increasing moisture should produce increasing clouds by afternoon and a slight chance of rainfall by late evening into Sunday morning. Models continue to differ with the intensity of the upper air disturbance so rain chances could go up some if a stronger disturbance verifies.

Short wave passes to the east, but no cold front or significant air mass change is expect and moisture will continue to increase. Pattern transitions into a big trough over the western US by early next week with a fairly potent looking storm system dropping into the SW US by this period. System looks to move into the plains by the middle of the week and with good moisture return over TX showers and thunderstorms appear in the offing in/around Halloween. Still a good ways out but this could be a pretty potent storm system.

The 12Z suite of guidance is slowly coming together in suggesting a significant Fall Season storm may well develop mid next week as a rather deep and strong cold core upper low cross the Desert SW and heads ENE across New Mexico and the Southern Plains. There still remain some timing differences that one would expect a week out in model world, but it does appear that potions of the Southern Rockies may see a significant winter like storm and potions of Texas and Oklahoma may see a rather potent severe weather episode that usually accompanies a strong storm complex during the Fall transition in weather patterns. We will see.

I don't know if this means anything to y'all, but HGX has this about our "potent" storm system.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS TO
RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO
BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW FOR A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
OVERHEAD AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...
EXPECT A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN THAT WILL MAINLY AFFECT NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER A BIT BUT
BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO START IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND THEN AREA
WIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

A MORE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL THEN HELP TO RETURN
ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF MOVE A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
FOR NOW THE MAIN IMPACTS STILL LOOK TO BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MORE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

And this tidbit from Dallas WX says:

THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH HAS THE COLD WEATHER AFICIONADOS ENDING
THEIR SUMMER HIBERNATION...APPEARS TO BE ABOUT A DAY SLOWER THAN
MY FORECAST YESTERDAY. THE GFS...WHICH HAD THE UPPER LOW CUT OFF
OVER THE COASTAL TX PLAINS...NOW KEEPS THE UPPER TROF OPENED UP
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SLOWS THE COLD FRONT/S NORTH TX ENTRY
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF 00Z RUN FORECASTS EXTREMELY
COLD 850 MB AIR OVER NORTH TEXAS UNDER THE CUTOFF LOW...BUT THE
12Z RUN HAS ALSO BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE COLD AIR AND KEPT THE
UPPER LOW CENTER FARTHER NORTH IN OKLAHOMA. IT BRINGS THE COLD
FRONT INTO NORTH TX WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN OR MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY...WILL
FORECAST A HYBRID OF THE TWO MODELS...AND BACK UP THE FROPA UNTIL
AFTER THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. I DID KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ON SYSTEM PROGRESSION...AND UPPED THE POPS TO 30
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN 48 HOURS OF MODEL
PREFERENCE FOR WEDNESDAY PRECIP.

IF THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROF FOR MID WEEK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTH...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DECREASE.
CURRENT SOLUTIONS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR AN
EVENT...BUT AGAIN...WITH NO MODEL CONSISTENCY CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/EXTENT IS LOW. 84

Oh, I almost forgot: Anybody have any ideas on what Houston can expect windwise? 20-30 mph? 40-50mph?

chamber of commerce weather

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/

http://innovation.srh.noaa.gov/ROC/gcastgis/

http://www.weather.gov/

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/

love, love, love this time of year !

What happened to the pre-Halloween cold front we were expecting??? Looks rather dull now

snowman65 wrote:What happened to the pre-Halloween cold front we were expecting??? Looks rather dull now

Not really. There remains so much uncertainty as to what actually happens to the deep trough and eventually closed upper low that develops to our W over the Great Basin that no one wants to bite on a final solution that is likely 6-7 days out.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
147 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

VALID 12Z SUN OCT 27 2013 - 12Z THU OCT 31 2013

...OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

THE RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF AMPLIFIED FLOW MAY REACH A TURNING
POINT LATE NEXT WEEK... BUT UNTIL THEN THE STRONG RIDGING IN THE
NE PACIFIC AND SE ALASKA SHOULD PERSIST/DOMINATE. 500MB HEIGHT
STANDARDIZED ANOMALY NEAR +3 TO +3.5 IS FORECAST TO LINGER NEAR
THE PANHANDLE AND ALLOW TROUGHING TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
INTERIOR WEST CLOSING OFF A MID-LEVEL CENTER OVER ID/UT INTO CO.
THE SIMULTANEOUS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF TYPHOONS FRANCISCO
AND LEKIMA SHOULD MAINTAIN THE STRONG RIDGING AHEAD OF DEEP
TROUGHING ALONG 175W... INTO WHICH THE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRAVITATE.

THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN BOTH
DEPTH/PATH/SPEED OF THE WESTERN TROUGHING. IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERING METHOD SHOWS A NEARLY EVEN SPLIT AMONG A MAJORITY OF
THE 70 GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS THAT END UP MORE THAN 1000 MILES APART
BY TUE/D5... LEAVING ESPECIALLY THE ECENS MEAN TO A BIMODAL
PATTERN. PREFERENCE REMAINS FOR A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT THE SEVERAL
RECENT DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHOWN. A VARYING
BLEND BETWEEN THEM AND THE 18Z GEFS MEAN... WHICH WAS OVERALL
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN... WAS USED FOR THE BASE OF
THE FORECAST. THE EC MEAN HAS TRENDED TOWARD LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE
WEST FROM ITS RUN 24 HRS AGO... AGAIN LENDING CREDENCE TOWARD THE
GEFS MEAN SOLUTION. AS THE ENERGY EXITS THE ROCKIES... IT IS QUITE
UNCLEAR AS TO WHAT SPEED AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL OPEN UP. OPTED
TO RELY ON THE GEFS MEAN BUT ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES BY THU/D7 EXCEED
2000 MILES... SO ALMOST ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

DESPITE THE SOUTHWARD PLUNGE OF 500MB HEIGHTS... COLDEST AIR AND
BULK OF RAIN/SNOW SHOULD FOCUS ALONG/EAST OF THE DIVIDE... THOUGH
THE ENTIRE WEST SHOULD EXPERIENCE A COOL DOWN. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MT/WY/CO SHOULD DEVELOP A ROBUST UPSLOPE EVENT WITH
A BRISK EAST WIND. NOT TO BE LEFT OUT... THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIP AS A COUPLE SYSTEMS SWING
TROUGH... WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY BY WED-THU/D6-7 TIED TO THE
WESTERN TROUGH EVOLUTION.


FRACASSO

The trends via the 12Z suite of guidance is beginning to suggest a more neutral trough that being a more N to S axis ~vs~ that of a positive tilt that would favor a SW to NE axis that previous guidance had been suggesting as well as a further S track of the closed cold core upper low. What that mean regarding the sensible weather we could expect around Tuesday through Thursday of next week is a more likely chance of heavy snowfall accumulations across Northern New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and possibly extending E along the Red River Valley on N into Oklahoma and Kansas. Severe weather potential may have to be increased further S in the warm sector as the Gulf opens up and allows deep moisture returns ahead of that strong Winter like storm complex. Such a pattern also suggests a very strong cold front will drop S across all of Texas as rather chilly Canadian air is pulled S into the Plains as the storm system wraps up. Halloween could be very chilly with blustery cold NW to N winds. If we do see some snow fall across the Southern Plains, those breezes would bring the coldest air of the season into Central and SE Texas. We will see.

I like it!!

I need 24 hr notice before I can officially go into hibernation.

I'm ready for some cold weather.

srainhoutx wrote:The trends via the 12Z suite of guidance is beginning to suggest a more neutral trough that being a more N to S axis ~vs~ that of a positive tilt that would favor a SW to NE axis that previous guidance had been suggesting as well as a further S track of the closed cold core upper low. What that mean regarding the sensible weather we could expect around Tuesday through Thursday of next week is a more likely chance of heavy snowfall accumulations across Northern New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and possibly extending E along the Red River Valley on N into Oklahoma and Kansas. Severe weather potential may have to be increased further S in the warm sector as the Gulf opens up and allows deep moisture returns ahead of that strong Winter like storm complex. Such a pattern also suggests a very strong cold front will drop S across all of Texas as rather chilly Canadian air is pulled S into the Plains as the storm system wraps up. Halloween could be very chilly with blustery cold NW to N winds. If we do see some snow fall across the Southern Plains, those breezes would bring the coldest air of the season into Central and SE Texas. We will see.

Sounds like we'd could have an extremely serious weather emergency on our hands, srainhoutx.

GOD, SAVE ME FROM HOUSTON WEATHER!

Paul Robison wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:The trends via the 12Z suite of guidance is beginning to suggest a more neutral trough that being a more N to S axis ~vs~ that of a positive tilt that would favor a SW to NE axis that previous guidance had been suggesting as well as a further S track of the closed cold core upper low. What that mean regarding the sensible weather we could expect around Tuesday through Thursday of next week is a more likely chance of heavy snowfall accumulations across Northern New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and possibly extending E along the Red River Valley on N into Oklahoma and Kansas. Severe weather potential may have to be increased further S in the warm sector as the Gulf opens up and allows deep moisture returns ahead of that strong Winter like storm complex. Such a pattern also suggests a very strong cold front will drop S across all of Texas as rather chilly Canadian air is pulled S into the Plains as the storm system wraps up. Halloween could be very chilly with blustery cold NW to N winds. If we do see some snow fall across the Southern Plains, those breezes would bring the coldest air of the season into Central and SE Texas. We will see.

Sounds like we'd could have an extremely serious weather emergency on our hands, srainhoutx.

GOD, SAVE ME FROM HOUSTON WEATHER!

Trolling at its best right there.