February-Comfortable Days/Cool Nights To The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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SaskatchewanScreamer
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Hi Stranger :o)

I give you fellows credit for never giving up hope!

Would give my eye-teeth to send you ALL our cold and snow (& so would everyone else who lives here).

Sincerely,
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(the one who posts very often in your abandoned thead) ;D
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Portastorm
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Yes, I know this is in what we consider "la-la land" but the 6z GFS does show a potent winter storm for Texas in early February, covering the northern half of Texas in snow.
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srainhoutx
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The trends via the 12Z GEFS and the CPC Super Ensemble reanalysis suggest we may well see a return to a ‘colder’ and stormy pattern as we head into the late January/early February time frame.
01192013 12Z GEFS 12zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA276.gif
01192013 12Z GEFS 12zgfsensembles850mbTAnomalyNA276.gif
01192013 CPC Super Ensembles 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:Last image, yeah, a big ridge pushing into Alaska and a big trough over most of the US, that would be something...

0Z GFS reprocessed ensembles are, um, interesting...
Looks like positive PNA.
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I have a deal with my family to where if there is another snowy storm within 5-6 hours from here we're heading out to it in the RV. Just need a few hours notice of the "event" and we're in the rig heading out!!

Missed out on the San Angelo 5 inch storm a few weeks back so we're itching to catch another one.
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srainhoutx
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While it is way out in model world and certainly cannot be fully trusted, the operational 12Z GFS is suggesting some chilly wet weather as we enter the first half of February as the MJO becomes favorable and the sub tropical jet remains noisy. Another 'hint' that winter may not be done is a raging GWO as well as tropical forcing from the MJO (octant 8/1/2) that has been non existent so far this winter season. February climo tells us that the first half of February can offer our best chances of wintry mischief as we march toward a change in season to that of a more Spring like pattern later in February into early March. I did notice what HGX mentioned this morning in regard to the CPC 8-14 day Outlook, but the trends the past several days suggest that the pattern will remain rather fluid as the guidance struggles with the evolving pattern ahead. In fact as of yesterday there was a bit of a shift to the W with a 'colder regime' during the fist half of February E of the Rockies. With the dynamics unfolding across the mid to high latitudes, my hunch is we have not seen the last of some winter chill across the Region. We will see.
01242013 12Z GFS 12zgfs850mbTSLPp12324.gif
01242013 12Z GFS 12zgfs850mbTAnomalyNA324.gif
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srainhoutx
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The CPC has again made a shift further W regarding the 'cold anomalies' expect in the 8-14 day range. Also of note are the trends continuing via the MJO Update suggesting a Phase/Octant 8/1 scenario via the GEFS/Euro Ensemble Mean.

CPC:
01242013 CPC Temps 814temp_new.gif
Euro Ensemble MJO:
01242013 Euro Ensembles MJO ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif
GEFS MJO:
01242013 MJO GEFS NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif
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srainhoutx
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A winter break will return after the late week cooling off as we end January. All indications suggest a zonal flow will be the theme until February 8th, +/- a couple of days when there are rather strong suggestions of a change in pattern where a PNA Ridge develops along with a Western trough. At that time the Polar Vortex will shift from the Bering Sea E into Canada once again. Also of note is an active Sub Tropical Jet suggesting E Pacific moisture may come into play and a strong Winter Storm complex develops to our W once again. If the long range guidance is correct, that may be the last event of the winter before we transition to a more Spring like pattern beyond February 15th.
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Ptarmigan
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It would be nice to see a cold and wet February.
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srainhoutx
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The overnight ensembles continue to advertise a moist Pacific zonal flow regime will become established as well as embedded short wave activity streaming in from the W. While rainfall across our region is not all that impressive, areas to our West and North that have been enduring a long term drought appear to benefit from such a pattern.

The latest updates from the GEFS/Euro Ensembles continue to suggest a phase/octant 8 MJO and that tends to favor a wet pattern as tropical forcing moved closer to the dateline.

Also of note are the increasing trends of a +WPO and a more neutral EPO as well as minor indications of a AO trend back toward a negative phase. Typically with tropical forcing we see a rise of a PNA Ridge across the Eastern/NE Pacific, but that remains to be seen. February tends to be a stormy month, climo wise and we will need to follow the trends to see if such a pattern will bring moisture across much of the areas that need rainfall and higher elevation snow.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1030 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 02 2013 - 12Z WED FEB 06 2013

...GENERAL FLOW PATTERN...

A SHORT WAVELENGTH TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY HOLD IN THE
PAC NW/ROCKIES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WHILE BROAD TROUGHING
ENCOMPASSES THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. THE CANADIAN VORTEX SHOULD
STAY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF HUDSON BAY WITH INDICATIONS IT MAY
EVEN RETREAT FARTHER NORTH AND WEST BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN IS SUPPORTED BY DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
TO THE SE OF GREENLAND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP MAINLY WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEMS DOMINANT IN THE EAST WITH A MODEST SYSTEM PUSHING
INTO THE PAC NW BY TUE/D6.


...MODEL PREFERENCES...

THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH EXPECTED/MINOR RUN TO
RUN SHIFTS IN CONTINUITY... ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. THE 00Z GFS
CORRELATES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN
THOUGH DOES TEND TO STRAY FARTHER FROM THE BEST ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERING OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. USED A
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z/30 AND 12Z/29 ECMWF WITH SOME OF THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TO GET A GOOD CONSENSUS BASE OF THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE.

IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... THE GUIDANCE HAS ALL COME AROUND TO
CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW WELL SW OF CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND NEAR
20N/135W. THE 06Z GFS CHANGED COURSE FROM ITS 00Z RUN AND BROUGHT
THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUE/D6... BUT THIS SCENARIO
HAS LOST FAVOR WITH THE BULK OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. QUESTIONS REMAIN
AS TO HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL ENERGY WORKS THROUGH CA/AZ EARLY NEXT
WEEK FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS
LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS VORT MAX AND EVEN CLOSES IT OFF OVER NW
MEXICO. BY WED/D7... THE MODELS RAPIDLY DIVERGE SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA WITH POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. FORECASTING/TIMING THESE ARE CHALLENGING TO SAY THE
LEAST SO TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BY
TUE-WED/D6-7. THE 06Z GEFS MEAN WAS NOT AS DEFINED IN ITS PRESSURE
FIELD WITH COMPARATIVELY MORE ENSEMBLE SPREAD THAN THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE HAD.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...

A GENERALLY QUIET SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED WITH THE NW FLOW
FAVORING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND ALSO OVER UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY NEXT WEEK MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE PAC NW INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY MODERATE FROM THE SHORT TERM BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL CONUS-WIDE.



FRACASSO
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01302013 06Z GEFS 06zgfsensemblep120240.gif
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From Joe Bastardi:
@BigJoeBastardi: Winter over????Not if KMA is right as its blocking pattern Feb 11-March 10 very similar to Snowmeggedon month of Feb 10.

Image
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement that a zonal flow will be the theme as we begin February. Changes do appear beyond day 8 as a change in the 500mb pattern develops and Pacific moisture and general low pressure replaces a General Continental Ridge pattern.

The latest CPC 8-14 day forecast does suggest increased rainfall and higher elevation snow develops to across the West with a general stormy pattern. Heights fall over Alaska as a stormy pattern develops across the Northern Pacific and temps moderate over Canada as the Polar Vortex retreats N to the Arctic Ocean. Above normal temps should shift E of the Rockies into the Mid West and East Coast as pressures fall across the West. It still appears that the Sub Tropical Jet could become noisy once again as we end the first full week of February. We will see.



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 07 - 13 2013

THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE
8-14 DAY PERIOD. WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND THE TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF ALASKA PERSIST INTO THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, MODEL RUNS GENERALLY
INDICATE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
CONUS, WHILE A TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
ARE PREDICTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF ALASKA.

THE PREDICTED PATTERNS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
ARE SIMILAR OVERALL TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST WITH SOME CHANGES RELATED
TO THE EVOLVING AND PROGRESSIVE CIRCULATION PATTERN. AS THE RIDGE OVER THE CONUS PROGRESSES EASTWARD, THE AREA OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MOVES EASTWARD AS WELL. THE AREA OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
TRANSITIONS TO NEAR NORMAL FOR WEEK 2. THE AREA OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

THE AREAS OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION HAVE EXPANDED
AND MOVED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, AS THE CIRCULATION PATTERN
OVER THE CONUS HAS PROGRESSED EASTWARD.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15
PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL RUNS ON THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN, FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS, WITH
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A CHANGING CIRCULATION PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.

01302013 12Z Euro Ensemble  12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif
01302013 12Z GEFS 12zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif
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Larry Cosgrove: "Despite the cold night ahead, I am convinced that winter is finished in the Houston area (and, to a large degree, the entire southern and eastern quadrants of the U.S. It may be possible that one or two intrusions of Arctic air will drop out of Canada between now and mid-February. However, the lack of any viable high-latitude blocking signatures in or around North America (despite so many computer models saying otherwise) would suggest that Spring gets an early, and very warm start.

As an example, the warming trend setting up this weekend will carry strongly into the following week, with 60s, 70s and finally 80s likely to be in play each afternoon. We may be in better shape for rainfall potential during the next few months than was the case two years ago, if only because nearby tropical forcing (eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean) could be lined up to deliver moisture and energy to much of Texas. many of the analogs to the current pattern suggest an unusually warm, humid pattern locally with lots of thunderstorms.

If you want real winter, move to Minneapolis or Chicago...."

I'm confused....is this his personal opinion....orrrrr?
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C2G
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Like what Larry's saying. And no offense to Joe, but he was tooting the Jack Frost horn earlier this month, and while it did mean extreme cold for the east/northeast U.S., it meant little for us.
We may get a few more cold snaps, but I'm thinking nothing too extreme.
It was so nice to have my power walk in the park wearing shorts and a short sleeve. Made me long for the warmth even more.
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Portastorm
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For those of us who aren't ready to throw in the towel about winter, you'll be happy to know that the GFS model continues (for 5-6 consecutive runs) to show a major winter storm for much of Texas on or around Feb 12-14.

And for grins, here is a snowdepth map from the 6z GFS for Texas on Feb. 13th.
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C2G
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Yes, definitely for grins. Maybe DFW will get something.
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srainhoutx
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Don't get stressed, Ed. The guidance is clueless right now. We have to look at the 'players on the field'. The entire Northern Hemisphere is in a chaotic state and giving the operational and ensemble models fits. The pattern, or 'players' from a raging GWO, MJO, Eastern Asia Mountain torque as well as a propagating Kelvin wave just a stormy southern stream pattern moving E from the EPAC in about 6-10 days. The HPC is already mentioning a wholesale pattern change late next week as we transition from a quasi zonal flow pattern to that of a deep Western Trough tapping the noisy STJ. The PV displacement back to the Arctic appears temporary. My hunch is a chilly wet pattern will return and may linger a bit longer that some of us are expecting. IMO, winter is certainly not over and some of this chatter regarding an early Spring and dry continues are pure folly. We will see.
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wxman57
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I see some indications of a Canadian air outbreak around mid month (altered the title of this thread to that effect). Nothing to indicate any severe cold, just seasonal to a bit above-normal temps for the next couple of weeks.
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Will anyone else be attending to celebrate GroundHog Day this Saturday, February 1 at the Weather Museum? I'm coming home this weekend for a few things and thought since this was going on while I'm in Houston this weekend, I would stop by. Would like to put some faces to names those on this forum.
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wxman57
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Belmer wrote:Will anyone else be attending to celebrate GroundHog Day this Saturday, February 1 at the Weather Museum? I'm coming home this weekend for a few things and thought since this was going on while I'm in Houston this weekend, I would stop by. Would like to put some faces to names those on this forum.
We'll be passing by the museum on our bikes on Saturday. Probably around noon and again around 3pm as we return from the Heights. I used to work at the "Institute for Storm Research" back in 1980. It became the "Weather Research Center" years later. Jill Hasling and her father Dr. John Freeman were running the company in 1980 and now Jill is in charge by herself.

If you see an old radiosonde and balloon there (circa 1970s) - I donated it to the museum. Got the radiosonde while I was a student at A&M back in 1979.
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