January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

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Belmer
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Well, it is less than two weeks till we ring in another year. Another year of wild weather is probably in store for parts of the world. All I want this year for TX (and for most of the country for this matter) is plenty of rain and cooler temperatures as we head into summer.

Woah, I just said summer. I'm not going to do that again.
Anyway, as we look ahead to Christmas week, plenty of cold air looks to break from Canada, and with that looks to come some decent snow out of it. Hopefully we can get a nice snow pack to our north so our next arctic blast will definitely feel like one. Models are keeping us hopeful for a chilly first half of January. Indeed a pattern change has happened, this is nothing like last year, that's for sure!
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I know some of our folks follow my friend Don Sutherland from American Weather and his updates. He is a great statistician and has tracked weather patterns for many years. Here is his update today regarding January:

Large-Scale Pattern Change Imminent...

A blizzard is currently raging in parts of Iowa and Wisconsin. That storm represents yet another event in the ongoing evolution of the pattern that will culminate in a much colder pattern locking in over a large part of the United States and southern Canada. Already, parts of Wisconsin have picked up 10" or more of snow. Strawberry Point has received 12.2".

Meanwhile, this morning was the 6th consecutive day on which Fairbanks, Alaska registered a low of -40°F or colder. To date, the monthly mean temperature is a frigid -19.4°F (16.3°F below normal). However, there are hints on the ensembles and also the CFSv2 that Alaska could grow notably warmer in the extended forecast range. As that happens, Arctic air could press southward, leading to what will likely be a colder than normal January across much of the U.S. (except for perhaps the Southwest and Florida) and southern Canada, if the leading analogs are accurate. The CFSv2 has been signaling a cold January for some time now.

Such a break in the pattern featuring the warming in Alaska is not without precedent. For example, November 1977 saw Fairbanks come out with a mean temperature of -7.6°F (10.4°F below normal). November 2012 had very similar readings, with a mean temperature of -8.8°F (11.4°F below normal). The first 17 days of December 1977 were brutally cold in Fairbanks. The mean temperature was -32.8°F. 3 days had high temperatures of -40°F or colder. The lowest temperature during that period was -52° on December 13 and the highest temperature was -11°F on December 1. A rapid transition to milder condtions took place afterward. The December 20-31 period had a mean temperature of a toasty 10.8°F. 11/12 days had high temperatures above 10°F and 4/12 had highs in the lower 20s. 10/12 days had low temperatures above 0°F. The lowest temperature was -8°F on December 25 and the highest was 22° on December 26.

January 1978 had a mean temperature of +0.1°F (12.0°F above normal). January1978 had temperature anomalies that were fairly similar to those forecast on the December 20, 2012 run of the CFSv2 for January 2013.

Through December 19, the mean temperature in Fairbanks has been -19.4°F. The lowest temperature has been -48°F on December 17.

The latest ensemble forecasts suggest that the EPO could go neutral or negative toward the end of December. The PNA could go neutral or positive (and support for a turn to positive has been growing). The AO will likely remain negative. As a result, the forecast teleconnections suggest that the focus of the cold could shift south and eastward from Alaska into the CONUS and southern Canada. As 2013 begins, the risk of an Arctic outbreak appears likely to increase. One has seen such an outbreak appear on a few of the recent runs of the GFS for the start of January (including today's 12z run).



http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/ ... e__st__280
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srainhoutx wrote:I know some of our folks follow my friend Don Sutherland from American Weather and his updates. He is a great statistician and has tracked weather patterns for many years. Here is his update today regarding January:

Large-Scale Pattern Change Imminent...

A blizzard is currently raging in parts of Iowa and Wisconsin. That storm represents yet another event in the ongoing evolution of the pattern that will culminate in a much colder pattern locking in over a large part of the United States and southern Canada. Already, parts of Wisconsin have picked up 10" or more of snow. Strawberry Point has received 12.2".

Meanwhile, this morning was the 6th consecutive day on which Fairbanks, Alaska registered a low of -40°F or colder. To date, the monthly mean temperature is a frigid -19.4°F (16.3°F below normal). However, there are hints on the ensembles and also the CFSv2 that Alaska could grow notably warmer in the extended forecast range. As that happens, Arctic air could press southward, leading to what will likely be a colder than normal January across much of the U.S. (except for perhaps the Southwest and Florida) and southern Canada, if the leading analogs are accurate. The CFSv2 has been signaling a cold January for some time now.

Such a break in the pattern featuring the warming in Alaska is not without precedent. For example, November 1977 saw Fairbanks come out with a mean temperature of -7.6°F (10.4°F below normal). November 2012 had very similar readings, with a mean temperature of -8.8°F (11.4°F below normal). The first 17 days of December 1977 were brutally cold in Fairbanks. The mean temperature was -32.8°F. 3 days had high temperatures of -40°F or colder. The lowest temperature during that period was -52° on December 13 and the highest temperature was -11°F on December 1. A rapid transition to milder condtions took place afterward. The December 20-31 period had a mean temperature of a toasty 10.8°F. 11/12 days had high temperatures above 10°F and 4/12 had highs in the lower 20s. 10/12 days had low temperatures above 0°F. The lowest temperature was -8°F on December 25 and the highest was 22° on December 26.

January 1978 had a mean temperature of +0.1°F (12.0°F above normal). January1978 had temperature anomalies that were fairly similar to those forecast on the December 20, 2012 run of the CFSv2 for January 2013.

Through December 19, the mean temperature in Fairbanks has been -19.4°F. The lowest temperature has been -48°F on December 17.

The latest ensemble forecasts suggest that the EPO could go neutral or negative toward the end of December. The PNA could go neutral or positive (and support for a turn to positive has been growing). The AO will likely remain negative. As a result, the forecast teleconnections suggest that the focus of the cold could shift south and eastward from Alaska into the CONUS and southern Canada. As 2013 begins, the risk of an Arctic outbreak appears likely to increase. One has seen such an outbreak appear on a few of the recent runs of the GFS for the start of January (including today's 12z run).



http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/ ... e__st__280
1978-1979 winter is the coldest winter in America going back to 1895. January 1982 had a freeze that hit Houston, which led to ice storm. The temperature bottomed out at 12F at KIAH.

Houston Ice Storms
http://www.wxresearch.com/almanac/houice.htm
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For what it's worth, Accuweather has snow mixed with rain on January 8th/9th. It's so far away so It'll probably change to 70 degrees and hot by then but it's fun to look at nevertheless.
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Nice +PNA via the long range Euro today. Wow!
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12212012 12Z Euro 12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif
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I know many of us are wishful for some cold air and the "s" word here in SE TX, and all I can say to that, is models look to be trending more favorable for some little something right around New Years. This will need to be monitored closely as things could get messy going into 2013. ;)
I'm sure as soon as we are past this Christmas storm threat, our next focus will be the New Years storm.
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The 12Z euro ensembles continue to advertise a stormy/cold pattern ahead as we move toward January.
12232012 12Z Euro Ensembles 12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif
12232012 12Z Euro Ensembles 12zecmwfenshourly850mbTempAnomalyNA240.gif
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If the 12Z Euro is correct, we'll be dealing with another big Winter Storm beginning New Years Eve into New Years Day...
12252012 12Z Euro f168.gif
12252012 12Z Euro 12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA168.gif
12252012 12Z Euro 12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA192.gif
12252012 12Z Euro 12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA216.gif
12252012 12Z Euro 12zeurohourly850mbTempAnomalyNA216.gif
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OMG, hopefully not severe again!
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Are we still expecting that big Arctic outbreak and snow potential for Houston? Snow potential around Jan 3,9,12?
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JackCruz wrote:Are we still expecting that big Arctic outbreak and snow potential for Houston? Snow potential around Jan 3,9,12?
No.
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The overnight ensembles continue to advertise another potential high impact event for the New Year, +/- a day or two across the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains. This event if modeled correctly would suggest a bit further S track from that of the Christmas Storm with both winter and severe threats once again.
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12262012 12Z GEFS 00zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH168.gif
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The 12Z Euro is suggesting a rather impressive Winter Storm brewing near the New Year time frame. It appears to have both winter and severe elements involved, if the Euro is correct. The Euro also holds the more southern cut off track across Baja/N Mexico ~vs~ a progressive non event that the GFS has been suggesting. That said the +PNA ridge of high pressure suggested by the ensembles lends a bit of credence to a slowing down or a bit less progressive pattern as the cut off cold core low drops S of California and taps some EPAC moisture. We will see.

HPC Model Diagnostic Discussion this afternoon:

...STORM APPROACHING CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z UKMET / 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A SHORT TO MEDIUM WAVELENGTH TROUGH WILL DIG OFF THE COASTS OF
OREGON AND CALIFORNIA... AND MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
INLAND BY FRI/SAT. UNLIKE DURING THE RECENT STORMY PATTERN IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THIS SYSTEM IS SET TO DIG TOWARD SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BEYOND THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. A SPLIT STREAM FEEDING
INTO THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST HAS RESULTED IN
CONSIDERABLE SHORTWAVE COMPLEXITY WHILE THE IDEA OF A DIGGING
LONGER WAVE TROUGH IS CONSISTENT. IN THE 12Z RUNS...SOME SHORTWAVE
DETAILS APPEAR TO RESULT IN THE NAM AND GFS BEING AT THE FAST END
AND THE LESS AMPLIFIED END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GIVEN
UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF A RIDGE...WE PREFER THE SLOWER AND
SHARPER DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH OFFERED BY THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIAN.
VIEWING ALL THE 00Z/12Z GUIDANCE TOGETHER...THE MOST LIKELY PLACE
FOR A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY SATURDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE AT
ROUGHLY THE LOCATION SHOWN IN THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE UKMET.
SUPPORT FOR THIS IS MOST NOTABLY FOUND IN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z
CANADIAN...WHEREAS THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO PLACE TOO MUCH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE RUN TO RUN CHANGES ARE
LESSENING...BUT WE PREFER THE DETAILS IN THE 00Z ECMWF OVER ITS
12Z RUN.
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12262012 12Z Euro f144.gif
12262012 12Z Euro f168.gif
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Here's the 12Z Euro 24hr snow accumulation forecast for Jan 2-3 (18Z). Note that the values indicated are in millimeters of liquid, so you have to convert. Figure 25mm = 1" liquid = 10" snow. So each 5mm = about 2" of snow. Obviously, this is nearly 10 days out so don't believe it 100%. Nothing is indicated for SE Texas. Not impossible, but it's unlikely we'd see any snow here.
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Snow in Roanoke, TX yesterday. It was fun but way to cold for me.
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The 12Z Euro ensemble mean are in somewhat agreement with the operational version of the 12Z Euro. It is noteworthy that the GFS remains progressive and has done rather poorly at this range with the pattern we are currently in and with the Ukmet and Canadian in somewhat better agreement with the Euro and its ensemble mean, a bit more credence would likely be given to the potential. We are still a ways out and the system will be dropping S off the California Coast this weekend. It is something to monitor as we end the year of 2012 and begin 2013.
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12262012 12Z Euro Ensembles Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_144.gif
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Srain, what does this mean? Can you elaborate?
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harpman wrote:Srain, what does this mean? Can you elaborate?

Cut off low are difficult for models to handle and just how far south and how slowly they begin to move E is frequently an issue for guidance. That said in past years the Euro had a SW bias and that may well be the case. Also as we saw with the Christmas Storm, the GFS and NAM started out further N and too progressive and then flipped back to a slower and deeper trough the closer we got to Christmas Eve. Last year some improvements or upgrades were done the European Model to help with the known SW bias. While these are just computer models analyzing a tremendous amount of data we can gleam to idea as to how things may well progress. A Ridge of high pressure will build across the NE Pacific this week and the storm track will shift to that of a trough in the E. Cold air is still very present across Western Canada and we are already seeing some of that cold air slowly but surely working S of the border. Last year the non American models did rather well with a number of the cold core cut off lows that crossed N Mexico. If you recall, Midland had record snow fall events with several of these type cut off cold core lows. While it is way to early to suggest a lot of moisture, a more southerly cut off solution would tend to suggest a tap into deep tropical moisture in the Pacific and bring that moisture NE or over the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains (New Mexico/Texas/Louisiana). It is important to note that we are back in a drought situation and it would be fool hearty to suggest at this range that a big rain event is in the making. We'll just have to watch and monitor just how far S that low drops off the California/Baja Coast in the Pacific this weekend and then we'll have a fairly good idea what actual forecast or model will be more correct.
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Team, FWIW, I am in CA, leaving tomorrow and I just checked the NWS out of the San Joaquin/Hanford office and points south. Thought it would be worth mentioning that Winter Wx Advisories have been issued as far south as L.A county for the mountain slopes as low as 2500-3000 feet. My family here says that is rare.
Ready for severe weather season!!
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Thank you for the explanation. Yes, it was a cold core low that brought us our snow here in New Orleans in December 2008. I think you guys got it the day before.
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