SPC has a recent, experimental mp4 briefing - graphic shows it's for Mon AM, but audio states it's Tue 5:30 AM CST
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.mp4
January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:
Widespread severe weather outbreak likely today over the MS valley into east-central TX.
Usually warm air mass has spread very far northward for late January with 600am temperature of 59 degrees at Chicago. In fact the low so far this morning at BUSH IAH has been 72 which is about 10 degrees above our normal daytime high! With such a warm air mass over much of the nation east of the Rockies and a powerful storm system edging into the plains state, severe weather is likely. Locally southerly winds have remained gusty overnight and this continues to help break up or at least mitigate widespread sea fog conditions along the coast even though dewpoints are well above nearshore water temperatures. Have seen a better fetch of “chilled” wind over the extreme SE TX/SW LA coast where sea fog bank has maintained better definition over the past 24 hours. Will continue to deal with the sea fog threat for the next 12 hours or prior to the arrival of a fast moving cold front this evening.
Next item is the severe weather threat and chances for thunderstorms with the cold front this evening. Main dynamics and strongest lift will be focused NE of the region over AR where SPC moderate risk outline is in place. Best moisture is overhead now and will steadily shift eastward during the day well before the lift and slightly cooling arrive aloft. With afternoon surface temperatures likely filtering with 90 or better over NE MX in the slightly higher terrain and increasing SW winds in the mid level transporting this warm nose over the region…the dreaded cap looks to increase through the day. Highs in the upper 70’s will not be enough to break through the warm layer aloft especially given the deck of stratus. However some slight cooling of the mid levels may be possible as the trough axis approaches and combines with strong surface convergence with the cold front. While SPC slight risk takes in about the NE ½ of the region, feel the severe threat will be limited to the Lake Livingston area where capping is weakest and tail end of stronger dynamics aloft reside. Main threat in this area will be damaging winds to 60mph. For the rest of the area a broken band of showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be possible and this is supported by the TEXAS TECH meso model showing a thin line of showers/storms with the front. Think capping will hold strong over the southern and southwestern parts of the area keeping thunder out of the picture.
Front will quickly sweep offshore this evening with temperatures Wednesday morning 25 degrees cooler than today. Little weather is expected for the rest of the week into the weekend with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s to near 70 under mostly sunny skies.
Severe Weather Outlook (Day 1):
Widespread severe weather outbreak likely today over the MS valley into east-central TX.
Usually warm air mass has spread very far northward for late January with 600am temperature of 59 degrees at Chicago. In fact the low so far this morning at BUSH IAH has been 72 which is about 10 degrees above our normal daytime high! With such a warm air mass over much of the nation east of the Rockies and a powerful storm system edging into the plains state, severe weather is likely. Locally southerly winds have remained gusty overnight and this continues to help break up or at least mitigate widespread sea fog conditions along the coast even though dewpoints are well above nearshore water temperatures. Have seen a better fetch of “chilled” wind over the extreme SE TX/SW LA coast where sea fog bank has maintained better definition over the past 24 hours. Will continue to deal with the sea fog threat for the next 12 hours or prior to the arrival of a fast moving cold front this evening.
Next item is the severe weather threat and chances for thunderstorms with the cold front this evening. Main dynamics and strongest lift will be focused NE of the region over AR where SPC moderate risk outline is in place. Best moisture is overhead now and will steadily shift eastward during the day well before the lift and slightly cooling arrive aloft. With afternoon surface temperatures likely filtering with 90 or better over NE MX in the slightly higher terrain and increasing SW winds in the mid level transporting this warm nose over the region…the dreaded cap looks to increase through the day. Highs in the upper 70’s will not be enough to break through the warm layer aloft especially given the deck of stratus. However some slight cooling of the mid levels may be possible as the trough axis approaches and combines with strong surface convergence with the cold front. While SPC slight risk takes in about the NE ½ of the region, feel the severe threat will be limited to the Lake Livingston area where capping is weakest and tail end of stronger dynamics aloft reside. Main threat in this area will be damaging winds to 60mph. For the rest of the area a broken band of showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be possible and this is supported by the TEXAS TECH meso model showing a thin line of showers/storms with the front. Think capping will hold strong over the southern and southwestern parts of the area keeping thunder out of the picture.
Front will quickly sweep offshore this evening with temperatures Wednesday morning 25 degrees cooler than today. Little weather is expected for the rest of the week into the weekend with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s to near 70 under mostly sunny skies.
Severe Weather Outlook (Day 1):
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srainhoutx
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SPC Expands Moderate Risk for locations NE:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
ERN TX/OK TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
...ERN OK/TX TO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
EWD OVER THE LOWER PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITHIN THE LARGE TROUGH...A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET...WILL EJECT
ENEWD TOWARD ERN OK/NW AR/MO OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE...AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE NOW IN N CENTRAL OK WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
MO/IL TO LOWER MI...ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD MOIST SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED FROM ERN
TX/OK TO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE NW GULF COAST...TO
56-60 F FARTHER N INTO MO/IL. ADDITIONAL EWD EXPANSION OF THE MOIST
SECTOR IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS/TN AND LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPEN CYCLONE AND A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK TO NRN MO. THOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE S AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL
BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS E TX AND SE
OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER BUOYANCY FARTHER TO THE E AND NE.
THERE ARE ALREADY INDICATIONS THAT ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FROM NE TX INTO SE OK/WRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SRN MO THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR. FARTHER N...CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A WELL-DEVELOPED QLCS WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A
RISK OF EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND TORNADOES.
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEGINNING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION NEAR AND NW OF THE
ARKLATEX...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION FORMS WITHIN ONE OR MORE WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS
NEAR THE MS RIVER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG WITHIN A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
THOUGH MLCAPE MAY ONLY REACH 500-750 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 500-700
M2/S2 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 70-80 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WITH FAST-MOVING PRE-FRONTAL
SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN WHAT WILL
BECOME A WELL-FORMED SQUALL LINE. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...WHERE 80+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL COINCIDE WITH
AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 01/29/2013
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
ERN TX/OK TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
...ERN OK/TX TO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
EWD OVER THE LOWER PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITHIN THE LARGE TROUGH...A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET...WILL EJECT
ENEWD TOWARD ERN OK/NW AR/MO OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE...AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE NOW IN N CENTRAL OK WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
MO/IL TO LOWER MI...ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD MOIST SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED FROM ERN
TX/OK TO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE NW GULF COAST...TO
56-60 F FARTHER N INTO MO/IL. ADDITIONAL EWD EXPANSION OF THE MOIST
SECTOR IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS/TN AND LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPEN CYCLONE AND A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK TO NRN MO. THOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE S AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL
BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS E TX AND SE
OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER BUOYANCY FARTHER TO THE E AND NE.
THERE ARE ALREADY INDICATIONS THAT ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FROM NE TX INTO SE OK/WRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SRN MO THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR. FARTHER N...CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A WELL-DEVELOPED QLCS WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A
RISK OF EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND TORNADOES.
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEGINNING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION NEAR AND NW OF THE
ARKLATEX...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION FORMS WITHIN ONE OR MORE WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS
NEAR THE MS RIVER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG WITHIN A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
THOUGH MLCAPE MAY ONLY REACH 500-750 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 500-700
M2/S2 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 70-80 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WITH FAST-MOVING PRE-FRONTAL
SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN WHAT WILL
BECOME A WELL-FORMED SQUALL LINE. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...WHERE 80+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL COINCIDE WITH
AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 01/29/2013
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
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TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 7
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL 700
PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF POTEAU
OKLAHOMA TO 80 MILES SOUTH OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5...WW 6...
DISCUSSION...A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL ASCENT OVERSPREADING NE TX/SE OK
WILL SUPPORT NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. THOUGH CLOUDS ARE LIMITING SURFACE
HEATING...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND REMNANT STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL DRIVE MLCAPE TO THE 750-1500 J/KG RANGE BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
...THOMPSON
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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Code: Select all
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TXC035-049-059-083-093-095-097-099-113-121-133-139-143-193-217-
221-237-251-267-281-307-309-319-327-333-337-363-367-411-413-425-
429-435-439-497-503-292300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0008.130129T1730Z-130129T2300Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN
COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO
COOKE CORYELL DALLAS
DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS
ERATH HAMILTON HILL
HOOD JACK JOHNSON
KIMBLE LAMPASAS MASON
MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MENARD
MILLS MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
PARKER SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
SOMERVELL STEPHENS SUTTON
TARRANT WISE YOUNG
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1126 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
TXZ176-177-195>199-210>213-226-227-235>237-300000-
MADISON-WALKER-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-
COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-
BRAZORIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...CALDWELL...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...
THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...
WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...
BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...
EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...
RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...
LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...ANGLETON...FREEPORT
1126 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
SOUTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES
SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING
ALONG EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1126 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
TXZ176-177-195>199-210>213-226-227-235>237-300000-
MADISON-WALKER-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-
COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-
BRAZORIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...CALDWELL...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...
THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...
WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...
BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...
EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...
RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...
LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...ANGLETON...FREEPORT
1126 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
SOUTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES
SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING
ALONG EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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We'll need to monitor this area closely later tonight. If there is going to be a potential significant tornado event with this Moderate Risk, my hunch is this will be the area to watch...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...AR...NERN TX...FAR NRN LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...9...
VALID 292258Z - 300030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 7...9...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...WITH WW 7 SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z...PORTIONS OF THIS
AND WW 9 WILL BE EFFECTIVELY REPLACED BY A NEW TORNADO WATCH WITHIN
THE NEXT HALF-HOUR...AS SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS BOTH QLCS
AND PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS LIKELY STRENGTHEN. BOTH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...SUPPORTING AN
INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE QLCS LIKELY ACCELERATES
EWD DURING THE EVENING. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/...ESPECIALLY WITH
SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS JUST AHEAD OF THE QLCS.
..GRAMS/HART.. 01/29/2013
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...AR...NERN TX...FAR NRN LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...9...
VALID 292258Z - 300030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 7...9...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...WITH WW 7 SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z...PORTIONS OF THIS
AND WW 9 WILL BE EFFECTIVELY REPLACED BY A NEW TORNADO WATCH WITHIN
THE NEXT HALF-HOUR...AS SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS BOTH QLCS
AND PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS LIKELY STRENGTHEN. BOTH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...SUPPORTING AN
INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE QLCS LIKELY ACCELERATES
EWD DURING THE EVENING. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/...ESPECIALLY WITH
SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS JUST AHEAD OF THE QLCS.
..GRAMS/HART.. 01/29/2013
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Portastorm
- Posts: 800
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
- Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
- Contact:
Another frontal passage in Austin ... another frontal passage in Austin with no rain as we watch it glide to our north and northeast. 
Lake Travis will be only a mud puddle by August.
Austin: Your Gateway to the Chihuahuan Desert!
Lake Travis will be only a mud puddle by August.
Austin: Your Gateway to the Chihuahuan Desert!
Looks like the line just exploded along/just east of I-35 as the front passed. Now you know how I have felt most of the last two years.
-
Portastorm
- Posts: 800
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
- Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
- Contact:
Yeah Jason ... based on what I'm seeing on radar now and the lightning out my office window to the northeast ... that's exactly what has happened.jasons wrote:Looks like the line just exploded along/just east of I-35 as the front passed. Now you know how I have felt most of the last two years.
Hey, Portastorm... how did you enjoy that 85 degree weather today? Goodness. I was out on campus and just couldn't believe my eyes when I pulled up the temp on my phone and the temp was that high. Unbelievable. I feel you though in the rain department. Was hoping to get some rain, but ...nothing.
At least we'll have some cooler weather tomorrow.
At least we'll have some cooler weather tomorrow.
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
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txflagwaver
- Posts: 411
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- Location: Seabrook/Kemah
- Contact:
Dang it...was really hoping for some rain...need lots of it before the 15th
-
txflagwaver
- Posts: 411
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 2:37 pm
- Location: Seabrook/Kemah
- Contact:
Exactly..Yay...raining...the plants are dancing
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Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
A windy day across SE TX:
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
423 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...
.STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-301830-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0001.130130T1023Z-130130T2200Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
423 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON.
* EVENT...SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
* TIMING...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE BY SUNSET.
* IMPACT...LOOSE ITEMS AND TREE LIMBS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. SOME
POWER OUTAGES COULD OCCUR WHERE POWER LINES COLLIDE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING TODAY.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
423 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...
.STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-301830-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0001.130130T1023Z-130130T2200Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
423 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON.
* EVENT...SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
* TIMING...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE BY SUNSET.
* IMPACT...LOOSE ITEMS AND TREE LIMBS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. SOME
POWER OUTAGES COULD OCCUR WHERE POWER LINES COLLIDE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING TODAY.
Cap held as expected...not sure why SPC keeps dropping that slgiht risk area so far back SW when the inversion is so strong....maybe for the isolated cell that can break through and go severe. This is not 2012...that is for sure!Ed Mahmoud wrote:That was depressing. About a tenth at local airports.
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biggerbyte
- Posts: 1142
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
Though we did not go Severe across most of S.E. Texas, there was a very healthy line of storms, and moderate to heavy rain for some. Porter, Montgomery County, got a very nice period of heavy rainfall last night.
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wxman57
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2621
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
Looks like an average of about 0.10" across Harris County:
http://www.harriscountyfws.org/
http://www.harriscountyfws.org/
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Portastorm
- Posts: 800
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
- Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
- Contact:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:That was depressing. About a tenth at local airports.
You don't know depressing. 0.01 at Camp Mabry and 0.02 at ABIA.