I'll be up overnight tonight ..... pretty sure we will see some training and isolated severe weather late and into the morning hours. Rush hour will be tricky tomorrow morning.
Radar trends now indicate rain redeveloping from around Corpus NE over Matagorda Bay into Ft. Bend county. I do believe we are seeing what is the beginning of storms developing and a training situation looks to be setting up for the overnight hours.
January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Yup, and I see flashes of lightning off to my south southwest from Galv. Isl.djjordan wrote:I'll be up overnight tonight ..... pretty sure we will see some training and isolated severe weather late and into the morning hours. Rush hour will be tricky tomorrow morning.
Radar trends now indicate rain redeveloping from around Corpus NE over Matagorda Bay into Ft. Bend county. I do believe we are seeing what is the beginning of storms developing and a training situation looks to be setting up for the overnight hours.
Here we go folks.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC061-090415-
/O.NEW.KBRO.SV.W.0001.130109T0344Z-130109T0415Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
944 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
* UNTIL 1015 PM CST
* AT 944 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING 60 MPH WINDS...
OVER LAURELES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LAURELES.
HOLLY BEACH.
BUENA VISTA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.
&&
LAT...LON 2593 9750 2605 9755 2612 9762 2633 9736
2631 9734 2627 9734 2628 9732 2627 9729
2623 9730 2622 9731 2619 9729 2617 9730
2612 9728
TIME...MOT...LOC 0344Z 215DEG 43KT 2612 9746
$$
JGG
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC061-090415-
/O.NEW.KBRO.SV.W.0001.130109T0344Z-130109T0415Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
944 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
* UNTIL 1015 PM CST
* AT 944 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING 60 MPH WINDS...
OVER LAURELES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LAURELES.
HOLLY BEACH.
BUENA VISTA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.
&&
LAT...LON 2593 9750 2605 9755 2612 9762 2633 9736
2631 9734 2627 9734 2628 9732 2627 9729
2623 9730 2622 9731 2619 9729 2617 9730
2612 9728
TIME...MOT...LOC 0344Z 215DEG 43KT 2612 9746
$$
JGG
Ready for severe weather season!!
Decent cell coming through Sugar Land.
Rain building to our west.
Holy Cow, if this fills in on the way to HGX...Cloud2ground wrote:Rain building to our west.
000
FXUS64 KHGX 090549
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2013
.AVIATION...
THIS WET MESSY PATTERN OVER SE TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED A BIT INLAND AND
CURRENTLY SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-10. LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING/
PERSISTING ACROSS THE SITES AND HAVE TWEAKED GOING TAFS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS. 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2013/
LARGE CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA OFFSHORE EARLIER TODAY ESSENTIALLY
SHUT DOWN A GOOD BIT OF WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTN HOURS. THAT LARGE
MCS HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AND SHOULDN`T BE MUCH OF A FACTOR
ANY LONGER. IN ADDITION...UPPER FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT - AND NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED (VS SW EARLIER TODAY) SO
PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP OFFSHORE SHOULD HAVE MUCH BETTER CHANCES
OF CONTINUING & TRAINING INLAND. RADAR HAS BEGUN TO REIGNITE UP
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR THANKS TO ALL OF THE ABOVE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS A LLVL CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE
COAST. THIS SHOULD BE WHERE THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SFC BASED STORMS/SPINNERS.
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH NW PARTS LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME TRAINING.
OVERALL...BELIEVE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD NOT HAVE
MANY FLOOD PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT AND CAN HANDLE A DECENT AMOUNT MORE
OF PRECIP. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE URBAN TYPE STREET FLOODING WHERE ANY
HEAVIER RAIN OCCURS. PROBLEMS WILL ARISE WHERE AND IF CONSISTENT
TRAINING HEAVIER BANDS SET UP.
THINK THE HIGHEST RISK OF BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND SVR WX WILL
OCCUR DURING THE DAY WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. GROUND WILL BE MORE SATURATED. AND EXPECT
A BROAD LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
COMBINATION OF WET GROUND...DEAD DROUGHT TREES AND WINDS COULD
VERY WELL BE AN ISSUE.
OVERALL...NOT VERY MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THINKING OTHER THAN
TO TWEAK GRIDS CLOSER TO SHORT TERM TRENDS. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 57 65 49 66 / 100 100 100 40 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 62 68 53 69 / 100 100 100 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 62 68 56 67 / 100 100 100 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
I expected the storms to come from the west. It could be here as early as 2:00 AM or by morning rush hour. This looks to be a day event.
FXUS64 KHGX 090549
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2013
.AVIATION...
THIS WET MESSY PATTERN OVER SE TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED A BIT INLAND AND
CURRENTLY SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-10. LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING/
PERSISTING ACROSS THE SITES AND HAVE TWEAKED GOING TAFS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS. 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2013/
LARGE CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA OFFSHORE EARLIER TODAY ESSENTIALLY
SHUT DOWN A GOOD BIT OF WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTN HOURS. THAT LARGE
MCS HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AND SHOULDN`T BE MUCH OF A FACTOR
ANY LONGER. IN ADDITION...UPPER FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT - AND NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED (VS SW EARLIER TODAY) SO
PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP OFFSHORE SHOULD HAVE MUCH BETTER CHANCES
OF CONTINUING & TRAINING INLAND. RADAR HAS BEGUN TO REIGNITE UP
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR THANKS TO ALL OF THE ABOVE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS A LLVL CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE
COAST. THIS SHOULD BE WHERE THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SFC BASED STORMS/SPINNERS.
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH NW PARTS LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME TRAINING.
OVERALL...BELIEVE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD NOT HAVE
MANY FLOOD PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT AND CAN HANDLE A DECENT AMOUNT MORE
OF PRECIP. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE URBAN TYPE STREET FLOODING WHERE ANY
HEAVIER RAIN OCCURS. PROBLEMS WILL ARISE WHERE AND IF CONSISTENT
TRAINING HEAVIER BANDS SET UP.
THINK THE HIGHEST RISK OF BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND SVR WX WILL
OCCUR DURING THE DAY WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. GROUND WILL BE MORE SATURATED. AND EXPECT
A BROAD LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
COMBINATION OF WET GROUND...DEAD DROUGHT TREES AND WINDS COULD
VERY WELL BE AN ISSUE.
OVERALL...NOT VERY MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THINKING OTHER THAN
TO TWEAK GRIDS CLOSER TO SHORT TERM TRENDS. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 57 65 49 66 / 100 100 100 40 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 62 68 53 69 / 100 100 100 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 62 68 56 67 / 100 100 100 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
I expected the storms to come from the west. It could be here as early as 2:00 AM or by morning rush hour. This looks to be a day event.
Last edited by Ptarmigan on Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
-
Paul Robison
From SPC
SPC AC 090551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2013
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND LATER THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND AND A SECOND DIGS
SEWD ACROSS THE W COAST STATES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD...THE MAIN FEATURE IN TERMS OF AN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE SRN STREAM UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE --
PROGGED TO LIE JUST S OF THE TX BIG BEND REGION AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NNEWD WITH TIME...RESIDING OVER W
CENTRAL TX LATE.
AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENETIC RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN SUBDUED...WITH A WEAK LOW INITIALLY OVER THE S TX VICINITY
PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD -- AND EVENTUALLY NWWD ACROSS NWRN TX. AHEAD
OF THIS LOW...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...THOUGH SEVERE
THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...TX/LA COASTAL AREAS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF TX AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...AND EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS LA/AR INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.
VERY MEAGER/MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...AS WELL AS THE PERSISTENT ENELY FEED OF COOL LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS EMANATING FROM A SURFACE HIGH CROSSING THE MIDWEST.
GIVEN THIS OVERALL LACK OF APPRECIABLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND
PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS LIMITED. DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR WILL REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL...AND THUS AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH LINEARLY-FORCED CONVECTION POSSIBLY
CROSSING THE WRN GULF AND PERHAPS PARTS OF SRN LA...POTENTIAL FOR A
GUST OR TWO AT OR ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BELOW SLIGHT
RISK THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
SPREADING SLOWLY OUT OF TX AND INTO LA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
5% probability of winds 2% probability of tornadoes. Agree with Ed: I saw those model runs, too, and the best severe chances ARE along the immediate coast here in SETX and into Western Louisiana, and extreme South Texas. I, myself, would not be surprised if the SLIGHT RISK area moved back South and didn't include downtown HOU.
SPC AC 090551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2013
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND LATER THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND AND A SECOND DIGS
SEWD ACROSS THE W COAST STATES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD...THE MAIN FEATURE IN TERMS OF AN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE SRN STREAM UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE --
PROGGED TO LIE JUST S OF THE TX BIG BEND REGION AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NNEWD WITH TIME...RESIDING OVER W
CENTRAL TX LATE.
AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENETIC RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN SUBDUED...WITH A WEAK LOW INITIALLY OVER THE S TX VICINITY
PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD -- AND EVENTUALLY NWWD ACROSS NWRN TX. AHEAD
OF THIS LOW...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...THOUGH SEVERE
THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...TX/LA COASTAL AREAS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF TX AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...AND EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS LA/AR INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.
VERY MEAGER/MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...AS WELL AS THE PERSISTENT ENELY FEED OF COOL LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS EMANATING FROM A SURFACE HIGH CROSSING THE MIDWEST.
GIVEN THIS OVERALL LACK OF APPRECIABLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND
PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS LIMITED. DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR WILL REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL...AND THUS AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH LINEARLY-FORCED CONVECTION POSSIBLY
CROSSING THE WRN GULF AND PERHAPS PARTS OF SRN LA...POTENTIAL FOR A
GUST OR TWO AT OR ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BELOW SLIGHT
RISK THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
SPREADING SLOWLY OUT OF TX AND INTO LA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
5% probability of winds 2% probability of tornadoes. Agree with Ed: I saw those model runs, too, and the best severe chances ARE along the immediate coast here in SETX and into Western Louisiana, and extreme South Texas. I, myself, would not be surprised if the SLIGHT RISK area moved back South and didn't include downtown HOU.
Looking at radar, I'm a little concerned with that strong/heavy band of storms out over the gulf right now heading right for SE TX. That could very well be our problem overnight tonight as models have been predicting. Keep an eye out on that, radar estimates have about 2 inches an hour in those heavy bands and they aren't moving very fast. Should be approaching the coast soon.
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
I agree with you,but I have been having trouble being able to tell if it will impact areas north of the coast..looks like its headed NE?Belmer wrote:Looking at radar, I'm a little concerned with that strong/heavy band of storms out over the gulf right now heading right for SE TX. That could very well be our problem overnight tonight as models have been predicting. Keep an eye out on that, radar estimates have about 2 inches an hour in those heavy bands and they aren't moving very fast. Should be approaching the coast soon.
Moving more in a NNE direction. I don't see anyone in the Houston area dodging this band coming from the Gulf. ....It's a pretty solid band of heavy rain. My back porch at my house floods pretty quickly in a heavy rainfall event due to how our backyard is set up (behind my backyard is a large field where all the water drains in my backyard) and if I'm not out there pushing water out toward the street, water will get in my home. So I'm having a bit of a tough time trying to fall asleep tonight.gocuse22 wrote:I agree with you,but I have been having trouble being able to tell if it will impact areas north of the coast..looks like its headed NE?Belmer wrote:Looking at radar, I'm a little concerned with that strong/heavy band of storms out over the gulf right now heading right for SE TX. That could very well be our problem overnight tonight as models have been predicting. Keep an eye out on that, radar estimates have about 2 inches an hour in those heavy bands and they aren't moving very fast. Should be approaching the coast soon.
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
Very heavy rain at my house right now ..... (SGR) ... looks like a break to my SW, but thinking this could fill in at anytime. Would not be suprised to see an Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory issued within the next hour or two in the area. Few claps of thunder thrown in for good measure.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Curious to see the rain fall totals in the I35 corridor, from just north of San Antonio all the way to the southern suburbs of Dallas. All night long the radar has been very impressive in that area. Excellent to see the rain fall on parched parts of Texas, just not sure they need it all at once.
Last edited by C2G on Wed Jan 09, 2013 8:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
-
txflagwaver
- Posts: 411
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 2:37 pm
- Location: Seabrook/Kemah
- Contact:
It has been raining pretty steadily here...but it looks like most of the rain is staying off the coast. I see it moving NNE...
is there a cold front coming as well?
is there a cold front coming as well?
Strong storms near Corpus.
.
.
It's still a ways away .... Squall line is expected to develop and march eastward albeit it may take all day.txflagwaver wrote:It has been raining pretty steadily here...but it looks like most of the rain is staying off the coast. I see it moving NNE...
is there a cold front coming as well?
EWX just expanded and lengthened their Flash Flood Watch til 6PM this evening
TXC013-029-091-187-209-255-493-091800-
/O.EXB.KEWX.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130110T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ATASCOSA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-WILSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLEASANTON...SAN ANTONIO...
NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...SAN MARCOS...KARNES CITY...FLORESVILLE
358 AM CST WED JAN 9 2013
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS EXPANDED
THE
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...ATASCOSA...BEXAR...COMAL...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KARNES AND WILSON.
* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
* WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 6 INCHES.
* RAPID RUNOFF FROM THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD RESULT IN THE FLASH
FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AND
URBAN AREAS...AS WELL A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. LARGER
CREEKS AND STREAMS MAY EVENTUALLY BE IMPACTED. ROADWAYS AT LOW
WATER CROSSINGS OR IN LOW LYING AREAS COULD BECOME IMPASSABLE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE THINNER COVERAGE OF VEGETATION IN
JANUARY AND LOW EVAPORATION RATES WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR RUNOFF.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR
THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...PLAN NOW FOR WHAT
YOU WILL DO IF FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPS. STAY INFORMED AND BE
READY TO ACT IF YOU SEE FLOODING OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS
ISSUED.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
HGX Forecast Reasoning this morning concerning our ongoing flood threat.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
407 AM CST WED JAN 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
SE TX TODAY. THE SETUP WAS STILL IN PLACE WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW LOCATED THIS MORNING JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND AND A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A
SURFACE LOW OVER S TX WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE...WHILE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TO
PROVIDE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS THIS MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST.
THE MODELS DIFFERED A BIT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF EVENTS. FELT THAT
THE 00Z GFS WAS TOO FAST AND WENT MORE WITH A BLEND OF THE HIGH
RES ARW/NMM WITH THE NAM AND ECWMF. THESE SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL OVER SE TX THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE GROUNDS BECOMING SATURATED THIS MORNING...THE AFTERNOON
RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
MOVING SYSTEM...WILL EXTEND THE POPS INTO THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BREAK FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST PUSHES SLOWLY TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
40
&&
.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TODAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS. MARINERS
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF
STORMS MOVES ACROSS THE BAYS AND GULF. A PERIOD OF CALMER AND
DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY. ONSHORE WINDS
RETURN FRIDAY AND QUICKLY STRENGTHEN. AN SCEC WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. 43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
407 AM CST WED JAN 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
SE TX TODAY. THE SETUP WAS STILL IN PLACE WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW LOCATED THIS MORNING JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND AND A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A
SURFACE LOW OVER S TX WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE...WHILE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TO
PROVIDE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS THIS MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST.
THE MODELS DIFFERED A BIT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF EVENTS. FELT THAT
THE 00Z GFS WAS TOO FAST AND WENT MORE WITH A BLEND OF THE HIGH
RES ARW/NMM WITH THE NAM AND ECWMF. THESE SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL OVER SE TX THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE GROUNDS BECOMING SATURATED THIS MORNING...THE AFTERNOON
RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
MOVING SYSTEM...WILL EXTEND THE POPS INTO THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BREAK FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST PUSHES SLOWLY TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
40
&&
.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TODAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS. MARINERS
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF
STORMS MOVES ACROSS THE BAYS AND GULF. A PERIOD OF CALMER AND
DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY. ONSHORE WINDS
RETURN FRIDAY AND QUICKLY STRENGTHEN. AN SCEC WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. 43
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
It was just a matter of time before these training storms to our west started piling up some water. Heads up in Austin, Burleson, and Washington counties.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 845 AM CST
* AT 644 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST
HOUR.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
BRENHAM...CALDWELL...SOMERVILLE AND BURTON.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 845 AM CST
* AT 644 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST
HOUR.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
BRENHAM...CALDWELL...SOMERVILLE AND BURTON.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
HGX issues another Flood Advisory for much of the same area but now includes parts of Brazos County.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 945 AM CST
* AT 735 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR
AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BELLVILLE...SNOOK AND WIXON VALLEY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 945 AM CST
* AT 735 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR
AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BELLVILLE...SNOOK AND WIXON VALLEY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Wonder if these special marine warnings are gonna glide up the coast and turn into severe/tornado warnings.
Ready for severe weather season!!